After 30 years, housing prices in Tokyo have hit a record high, can houses in Shanghai be ** now?
Last night, the agent suddenly sent me a message saying that Yang Sipian had a set of leaky houses, and the landlord bought it for 2.7 million last year, and now he is in a hurry to use the money, and he paid 1.58 million taxes and fees at a fixed price, and asked me if I wanted it
I was directly stunned, saying that the landlord was going to lose money, and the agent said that the landlord had been laid off, couldn't afford the mortgage, had a nervous breakdown, and wanted to get out.
This afternoon, he sent me another message to reduce the price by another 130,000, 1.45 million, and I hesitated for a moment to tell him that I don't want it.
In fact, even if this house is 1 million, I don't want it.
Me: I don't understand what the point of buying this house is.
Intermediary: If you buy it, you will have 50,000 yuan in rent a year, and you will return to your capital in 30 years, otherwise you will always work for the landlord.
Me: From another point of view, the landlord is subsidizing you, a house is calculated at 1.5 million, and the rent is 50,000 yuan a year, but 1.5 million yuan to buy bank shares, the interest can be charged 120,000 yuan a year, and the landlord subsidizes you 70,000 yuan, you should thank the landlord.
Intermediary: Buying the big four banks may also lose money.
Me: the same, the stock price may fall, you buy a house now, the house price may also fall, buy a one-bedroom apartment, can not meet the living needs of your whole family, for rent, you have to consider the decoration, depreciation of the house and empty rent, the risk is smaller than the four major banks.
In the past six months, the housing prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing, the three hardest first-tier cities, have a relatively large **, which has a great impact on the thinking of the vast majority of people, taking this landlord as an example, if it is indeed because of layoffs and unable to pay the mortgage and forced to sell the house, considering that he only bought a one-bedroom apartment, it means that the down payment of this house may be all his savings. Now that the house is sold, all assets are cleared, and the fate has changed.
At the same time, Japan's housing prices are thriving, and many people have promoted Japan's housing prices to a 30-year highCan the house price be **?Today we're going to talk about it.
1. Overview of housing prices in Japan
Japan's property market collapsed at the end of 1991, and in more than a year, more than 6 percent, and some even fell by more than 70%. The back is sideways all the way, neither up nor down, and it is not a continuous decline as many people say. In the last decade, housing prices in Tokyo and nearby areas have continued to recover.
In 2021, the average price of newly built condominiums in the Tokyo area increased by 2% year-on-year9%。The average price of newly built apartments in Tokyo's 23 wards reached 82.93 million yen (about 460 yuan).540,000 yuan), which is the first time in 30 years that Japan's real estate bubble burst in the 1990s that it has exceeded the 80 million yen mark.
In FY2022, the average price of newly built apartments in Tokyo's 23 wards increased by 17% year-on-year2%, and Tokyo and its surroundings grew by 86%。
In 2023, the average number of newly built condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards will be about 11.5 billion yen (converted to more than 5.7 million yuan), 47 compared to the same period last year9%。
It can be said that from 2021 to 2023, Japan's housing prices have continued to grow at a high rate for three years, attracting the attention of the world.
But there are some key factors that we deliberately ignore.
For example, housing prices in Japan are all nested except for Tokyo and the surrounding areas, and even in Tokyo, the so-called 10 years of continuous growth is only about 80%, which is far from the doubling of the past 10 years.
For example, even if housing prices in Japan skyrocket, the rent-to-sale ratio in Japan is about 1:20, while in the domestic market, taking Shanghai as an example, the rent-to-sale ratio is 1Around 5:100. This means that Japan's housing prices have tripled, and from the perspective of rent-to-sale ratio, it is about the same as Shanghai.
For example, houses in Japan do not have a shared area, and they are all permanent residents.
For example, the overall vacancy rate of houses in Japan is relatively high, which is about 136%, higher than the US 111%, Germany 82%, France 78%。
For example, the house-price-to-income ratio is 15 in Tokyo and 24 in Paris, which is higher than 12 in New York and 14 in Berlin, and the house-price-to-income ratio in Shanghai is 44, the first in the world, which means that if a person gets an average salary in Shanghai, it will take 44 years to buy a property in the city center without eating or drinking.
Summary: In addition to Tokyo and the surrounding areas, Japan's housing prices are still in a zombie state that does not rise or fall, and the vacancy rate is extremely high, compared with the cost performance of housing prices in Tokyo and Shanghai, the gap is about three times.
Now, everyone has a more intuitive understanding of the housing prices in Shanghai.
2. The Lost Thirty Years
From 1990 to 2020, Japan's businesses, households, and people experienced a wave of balance sheet recession, **housing prices**, bank bankruptcies, and youth unemployment, and the entire country's economy stagnated. This period is also known to the Japanese as the "lost 30 years". Japan's housing prices are the only long-term housing prices in the world in the past 30 years.
The Plaza Accord was signed by the finance ministers and central bank governors of the five developed countries, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and West Germany, at the Plaza Hotel in New York on September 22, 1985. The purpose of this agreement is to jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market and make the US dollar fall in an orderly manner against major currencies such as the yen and the German mark, so as to solve the huge ** deficit of the United States.
This is because from the end of 1979 to the end of 1984, the US dollar exchange rate was 60% stronger, and the US exports, especially those of manufacturing, were hit hard.
After the Plaza Accord, the yen began to appreciate rapidly, and in just two years, an ordinary Japanese person who did nothing at home could double his assets in three years.
The appreciation of the yen also attracted hot money from all over the world at that time, and global capital began to gather in Japan to buy a house and buy a **,In its heyday, Tokyo aloneThe price of land in 23 districts can buy the whole of the United States!** At the same time as the property market, a huge amount of bubbles have accumulated.
Soon, Japan's economic bubble reached the point that the Bank of Japan could not bear it, and at the same time, the US dollar interest rate hike led to the outflow of international capital out of JapanJapan** finally discovered that Japan's economic bubble has reached the point where it will collapse if it is not punctured.
In order to save the economy, Japan** had to take the initiative to puncture the economic bubble - the yen raised interest rates, contracted the monetary base, and introduced various policies to restrict the ...... of land transfer
In other words, if it weren't for the three red lines and continuing to allow the real estate industry to use all the levers it can use, we may not be as good as Japan today in 2023.
At that time, in order to suppress land**, Japan imposed heavy taxes on landholders. (Note that the land of Japan is permanent.)But taxes, can be adjusted, there is no such thing as heaven in the world).
The rapid collapse of real estate has brought about a wave of bankruptcy in the financial industry, and the wealth accumulated by the people for decades has disappeared in an instant. But objectively speaking,This is already the lesser of two evils.
Then the income fell and the mortgage could not be repaid, triggering a sell-off of the house and the price of the house continued**. The heavy debt pressure forced young Japanese at that time to choose a low-desire life, they simply lay down, did not go to work, gnawed at the old at home, or indulged in two-dimensional and online games. As a result, Japan's culture and way of life have changed dramatically.
The aging of Japan's population did not occur at the beginning of the crisis, but during the most prosperous years of the Japanese economy, the birth rate of the Japanese population fell rapidly.
Supply and demand and financial conditions are turning at the same time, Japanese real estate +** triggers the "lost thirty years".
3. Where are China's housing prices going?
Japan's urbanization rate was 60% in 1990 and 65% in China in 2022
Japan's macro leverage ratio was 277% in 1990 and China's 281% in 20228%。
Compared with GDP per capita, China today is not even comparable to Japan in 1990. Even if inflation is not taken into account, China's per capita GDP in 2022 is only half that of Japan in 1990.
At the end of 2022, China is not rich before we grow old compared to Japan in 1990.
In the lost 30 years, the vast majority of people have seen the property market, but in fact, it is even more miserable. At the peak stage of Japan, the total market capitalization of Japan** reached 130% of the U.S. stocks, and 14 of the top 20 listed companies with the largest market capitalization in the world were Japanese companies.
If we have something stronger than Japan, there are two: first, international capital has not poured into China rapidly, except for houses, China's other assets are not expensive. Second, our ** is maintained at 3000 points all year round, and there is no bubble.
For the national economy, the largest pool is the first and the property market, Japan was facing two super bubbles at the same time, there is no escape, our current situation is that the real estate situation may be worse than Japan, but our pool can also accommodate bubbles, there is a lot of buffer room.
The only right choice is to gradually transfer wealth, from real estate and infrastructure in steel and cement to equity assets + insurance assets.
After all, up to now, there is no country in the world that has relied on rising housing prices to make its country prosperous and become a world power.