In 2024, buyers who just need to buy a home may usher in three good news
In the longer term, we don't think the theme of the property market in 2022 will be a bailout. However, the house ** has been declining. By 2024, local authorities have come to the rescue, but the property market has not yet come out of the depression. What caused all this?
We must be aware that the volatility of house prices is caused by a combination of factors. These factors include: changes in the economic environment, policy adjustments, demographic changes, and so on. So, we can't blame it all on the strict regulation of the real estate market and the downturn for three consecutive years.
Second, it is necessary to conduct a profound analysis of the current housing problem and its causes in our country. Due to the epidemic and other reasons, some industries and enterprises have experienced some difficulties after being impacted, which has had an impact on the stability and development of the overall economy. At the same time, some real estate companies have overextended and overleveraged, resulting in a cash flow shortage and making it impossible for them to continue to operate. All of the above reasons may cause a downturn in the property market.
Since the beginning of the housing market reform in 1998, housing has maintained a steady upward trend. According to the latest information, the average price of the city in December this year was 9,600 yuan per square meter, compared with 11,030 yuan per square meter in 2021, which has fallen sharply, but it is still very close to 10,000 yuan.
By the end of 2022, the average disposable income in our country will be $39,200. According to this ratio, the annual disposable income of a family of three is very generous, which can reach 117,600. However, in the face of 9,600 yuan per square meter, it costs 960,000 to buy three bedrooms of 100 square meters. That is, in order to buy a house, they have to work 8About 2 years. Worldwide, a good residential**-yield ratio should be 3-5. In stark contrast, China's current ratio of housing to housing is 82. This is a great burden on family life.
According to the in-depth research data of the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, the ratio of housing ** to housing ** in 100 cities is only 92, while 70 cities reached 133。Especially in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Sanya and Xiamen, the home**-to-income ratio has risen to a staggering 30. In other words, in such a city, it takes more than 30 years for a family to afford a room, which is definitely a great test for the quality of local living.
It can be seen that the housing problem is a big burden in our country. The real estate ** is now very high, which also shows that there has been some bubbles in the real estate market.
In fact, with the decline of the real estate market in the past two years, the real estate market has changed from loose to bailout, and the control of the real estate market has become a topic of attention from all walks of life. One perception is that the biggest beneficiaries of lower housing ** are the wealthy, while the poor still can't afford it. This point of view reflects the complexity of the real estate problem, which is not a simple data game, but is related to the equality of the whole society and the happiness of the people.
At first glance, housing *** is more beneficial to the poor. However, the change of housing is not only related to the vital interests of individuals, but also related to the stability of the whole society, and also related to the healthy development of the national economy. In the current changing international economic environment, maintaining the steady development of the real estate industry is related to the healthy development of the entire national economy.
Judging from the regulation measures of the real estate market in recent months, ** is to find a balance: on the one hand, it is necessary to curb the rapid growth of **, and on the other hand, it is necessary to ensure people's reasonable residence. In order to alleviate the financing difficulties of real estate enterprises and ensure the normal progress of project construction, the state has adopted a series of measures such as improving the efficiency of bank loans and supporting the financing of developers. Just like at the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China held a nationwide meeting to promote real estate financial cooperation projects. In order to promote the development and construction of real estate projects, we must implement the city's real estate financial cooperation mechanism as soon as possible and efficiently.
First, we should strive to improve the effectiveness of credit delivery, ensure sufficient financing guarantee for real estate developers, and inject strong momentum into the healthy development of the real estate industry; At the same time, more regulatory authority will be delegated to local cities, so that they can formulate more targeted policies and measures based on specific local conditions, so as to truly adapt measures to local conditions.
This means that more and more efforts are being made to rescue the market, delegating regulatory authority to various regions, so that all localities can be more in line with the specific national conditions according to their specific national conditions, so as to achieve the purpose of "precise control", that is, to give more powers. In big cities like Guangzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, in 2024, people are worried that by 2024, real estate may be again. This concern is not unreasonable, because in the past bailouts, the fluctuations of real estate ** only appeared after the launch.
However, the author believes that by 2024, it will be difficult for real estate** to recover significantly. The reason is simple, because trust in the real estate market is fading, short sellers are increasing, and real estate is gradually returning to its original way of life. The rescue measures of the first market reflect the current predicament of the real estate market. However, under the current macroeconomic regulation and control of "housing not speculation", the various relief measures introduced by the local government are mainly to stabilize the property market, help the property market tide over difficulties, protect the rights and interests of home buyers, and make it difficult to make substantial breakthroughs. This means that, in the eyes of investors, the complete relaxation of the previous real estate market regulation policies and the best rescue efforts will no longer exist.
Therefore, under the current real estate situation, even if the local government has introduced relief measures, it will not have much impact on the entire property market. There is still room for house prices to fall in some ** areas. However, in.
In the first, second, and third large cities, due to the continuous influx of large populations, the demand for housing will also increase, so **will follow**.
In addition, with the continuous introduction of property market relief measures, by 2024, home buyers may face three "good news":
1. The interests of home buyers will be protected, and the current rescue measures are mainly based on "guaranteed delivery", that is to say, in 2024, a large number of real estate projects will start construction one after another and will be delivered one after another, which will be the biggest benefit for home buyers;
2. With the introduction of a number of rescue measures, the property market will be more friendly to the demand of home buyers, and housing prices will also decline;
3. People who have not yet bought a house breathe a sigh of relief, and the trend of a stable ** for those who want to buy a property will no longer have to be unable to buy because of the rising **, nor do they have to worry about buying a property, because once they buy, ** will decline.
In fact, to a certain extent, the rescue measures of ** are undoubtedly a good thing for families with strong needs. Only by keeping the real estate market running smoothly can the legitimate rights of real estate consumers be truly protected.