China's Real Estate Market: From Fanaticism to Rationality.
In the current macroeconomic context, there are different opinions on whether to "force the car" to buy a property. But one thing is for sure: at this point in time, blindly following the herd or being driven by panic to buy a property is very likely to put you and your family in trouble.
The latest data shows that the volume of money** in December 2020 increased by 10% year-on-year1%, but this figure is lower than expected, suggesting that the market's expectations for the big release are not accurate. In fact, China has completed a large-scale monetary easing policy earlier, and in the current market environment, M2 growth will continue to decline.
At the policy level, the state has begun to implement strict financing restrictions and mortgage quota control for the real estate industry. In addition, financial instruments such as trusts are also dampening capital inflows into the real estate market. This shows that the state is taking strong measures to ensure the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
The real estate industry is a capital-intensive, highly leveraged industry. However, in the current policy environment, it is more difficult for real estate companies to obtain financing, and at the same time, sales collection is also under pressure. This undoubtedly increases the risk for the industry.
Some believe that Chinese house prices will continue until 2023**, but this view is clearly overly optimistic. In fact, with the change of demographic structure and the change of the international economic environment, it is a high probability event that China's housing prices will return to rationality in the next few years. Especially internationally, the atmosphere of "hunting" our country is getting stronger and stronger, and other countries are unlikely to give us enough time to slowly adjust the real estate market.
Now there is a view that if you don't buy a house, you can't marry a daughter-in-law, as if having a house can guarantee a long marriage. However, the data shows that with the shift in social attitudes, the number of marriage pairs is declining year by year, while the number of divorce logs continues to rise. The modern concept of marriage is more rational and autonomous, and it is no longer the previous model of lifelong system.
For those of you who are saddled with a 30-year mortgage, you should be aware that this is the same as missing out on the opportunity to buy a home in 2008 or 2015. A future marriage may be more focused on your mortgage situation and repayment period than simply whether you have a property.
The three main contradictions in China's real estate market are clearly visible: the short-term is the conflict between corporate financing and national policies; In the medium term, it is the contradiction between real estate development and economic transformation and upgrading; In the long run, it is the problem of insufficient receivers brought about by demographic changes.
In the face of such a market environment, individuals and families need to be more rational and cautious about the issue of buying a house. When planning your family's finances, it's important to consider long-term factors, not just short-term market fluctuations.
Overall, China's real estate market is facing unprecedented challenges and changes. It is unwise for home buyers to blindly follow the herd or listen to certain one-sided opinions. Only by fully understanding the market dynamics, grasping the direction of national policies, and comprehensively considering the actual situation of individuals and families can we make informed decisions.