Author |Luo QianboProduced by |Bogotá looks at the property market
Recently, according to Bogo's observation of the property market, Vanke's major news continues to stimulate this already very fragile market.
The Vanke incident has frequently stirred the rivers and lakes and broken the heart of real estate.
In particular, a small essay on the extension of Vanke's debt of nearly 10 billion yuan quickly detonated.
The above data **, according to today's "real estate**" report:
According to Xinhua Insurance's 2023 semi-annual report, it has 3 products related to Vanke, namely Xinhua-Vanke Wuhan Real Estate Debt Investment Plan, Xinhua-Vanke Logistics Infrastructure Debt Investment Plan (Phase 3), and Xinhua-Vanke Kunming Debt Investment Plan (Phase 1), with a total paid-in investment of 530.2 billion yuan.
According to the prospectus of the fourth phase of the medium-term notes of Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. in 2023, as of the end of 2022, the total loan amount of the top 10 non-traditional financing of Vanke issuers is about 978.2 billion yuan, the earliest loan termination date is December 25, 2024, the amount is 262.5 billion yuan. ”
The wind is surging, and the thunder is rolling.
Why is this event so influential?
The head real estate enterprise + 10 billion domestic extension + state-owned creditors first took the initiative to refute the rumorsBefore the holiday, a number of policies have been introduced, or there has been some improvement, but after the outbreak of Vanke's debt extension incident, it has quickly broken some expectations and hopes that have been established with great difficulty.
As we all know, if something really happens to Vanke, it will definitely bring more and more serious visible impacts.
On March 3, Xinhua Asset Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinhua Asset") issued a public statement in response to the recent rumors about Vanke in the market.
The statement said Xinhua Asset was concerned about misinformation with Vanke. Vanke is a leading enterprise in China's real estate industry and has been maintaining normal business cooperation with the company.
As a professional and responsible asset management company, Xinhua Asset Management is full of confidence in China's economic development, resolutely serves the overall strategic development of the country, and supports the healthy development of China's real estate industry.
From the relevant reports of many official media, between the lines and outside, it is not as simple as a simple small composition.
Moreover, Xinhua Assets took the initiative to stand up for Vanke.
It can't be groundless that can't stand up to scrutiny.
Of course, today's article is not to prove this news, but mainly to interpret how Vanke can effectively survive the catastrophe.
Recently, in the market, questions such as "Can Vanke still hold it?" Will Vanke be thunderous? And "Is Vanke okay?" There are many voices of this kind, all of which are many worries under the general trend, which has also caused a lot of speculation in the market.
However, in Bogo's exclusive analysis of the property market, in the downturn and general decline, such doubts are also objective and do not need to be concealed; However, with statements such as "Vanke Thunderstorm", this result will basically not appear.
Why is this judged?
There are two main arguments and analyses, which are as follows:
First of all, in Bogo's view, the above-mentioned voices are more subjective emotions in all aspects of the market, and cover up many objective measures for domestic real estate to continue to effectively review and adjust.
In the rapid change of the old and new cycles, the pain of the industry is inevitable.
Vanke is also unable to transcend the grasp of the industrial cycle, and it is difficult to be alone, which is inevitable.
In the global ** cycle, the country has already opened the disk protection mode in all aspects, but it seems a little obscure, and many people don't really understand it, so there is some panic.
More than 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom has long been insightful of everything in the core structure of heaven, earth and man.
At present, real estate is only a traditional industry that is gradually giving way to advanced manufacturing, and its model and structure have basically been solidified, and continue to flow into the traditional path.
At the macro level, its kinetic energy is constantly decaying, and the optimization guidance and crowding out effect continue to appear, that is to say, from the overall situation of international industrial competition, the value of domestic real estate is basically stable and stable, which is already a global trend.
From a global perspective, it took Japan 30 years to achieve its current state after the ups and downs; Real estate in the United States, in the past 10 years, has also experienced a major **, in addition, the recent United States commercial property revenue indicators are ugly.
What does this mean?
** It has been said that the whole world is hot and cold, and China is no exception.
Having said all this, I just want to make two pointsOne isVanke's predicament is not only a problem for real estate companies and industries, but also a number of trends and changes in the industrial environment. The second isAll countries are accelerating the effective protection of major industries in order to win future development space and sustained growth, which is the consensus of all countries at the level of economy and national strength.
Therefore, in view of this, you can think deeply about it in reverse - if Vanke thunders, the operational efficiency and control ability of domestic real estate and other industries will become a big joke in the world, and it is not Vanke that will be slapped in the face, but the country, will such a thing happen?
As a pillar industry, the leaders in the real estate field have been stripped off, and others will definitely look down on you.
It's like a family affair:
After years of competition and tests, a young man who is favored by the patriarch and his elder group has serious problems in the operation of the core industry, and these bigwigs may be three liters.
In a word, such an event as the "Vanke Thunderstorm" cannot happen.
Those voices in the industry are more ridiculous, and they are just a symptom of the traffic business, which can't shake the foundation of the country's industry, it's just a farce.
This is not a platform for Vanke, there is a deep underlying logic in it.
Why, Shenzhen Metro wants to be domineering to meet the overseas deep short-selling forces?
Why, Xinhua Assets took the initiative to help Vanke refute the rumors?
What do you mean? Please don't see the wind or the rain, and think about it.
Because, Vanke's symbolic meaning is numerous.
Secondly,The negotiation of debt extension is a common behavior of many real estate companies, and there is no need to over-interpret it
Under the pressure of the times, Vanke, as one of the leading core real estate companies, is very ordinary in terms of overall observation.
It's not worth being surprised.
Bo Ge believes that it is just that Vanke's fame is too great, coupled with the anxiety of the traffic era, etc., the aforementioned Vanke debt extension incident has been rapidly amplified, and there are many interests intertwined in it, which is very different from the objective trend of industrial evolution.
In the thick fog of emotion, from the perspective of our Bogotá property market platform, focusing on research-oriented and objective institutions, objectively analyzed, the above events are completely in line with Vanke's current situation, and it is a precautionary move, shouldn't it?
Some radical words and deeds in the industry are difficult to gain a foothold in many places.
It's also funny.
Don't be Vanke, as a real estate company such as Country Garden and South China City.
History, genes, mission and values are different, and they are not the same.
How so? Not to mention the comparison with the private enterprise Country Garden, many people have recently taken out the state-owned South China City to say things to confirm that Vanke may also thunder, in Bogo's personal opinion, the comparison indicators seem very vague and specious.
From the perspective of a regional state-owned asset, can we directly judge the situation of Vanke?
For more than 40 years, Vanke's banner has been flying high in the industry and winning the respect of the market.
Don't drink too much and make some specious and flawed remarks.
From the perspective of Vanke's debt disposal strategyConsidering the overall layout of sales and cash flow this year, the sale of assets in China and the pursuit of related extensions are relatively ordinary and normalized for many real estate companies.
It's just that, relatively speaking, there are too many things behind Vanke, which has caused the world's most monstrous flood, which is a realistic reflection of another aspect of its mission and value.
The love is deep, and the responsibility is keen; In turn, it's the same.
I wonder if you agree?
On the whole, Vanke's debt rollover is actually both simple and complex, and the key difference is, which and which angles will you look at?
It will cause a big difference or a big disparity in understanding, and this cannot be forced.
Bogo's personal opinion on this is:——Under the general trend, Vanke's above-mentioned behavior is too normal, and there are not so many twists and turns.
It doesn't hurt whether you agree with it or not, and whether you will refer to it.
After all, the river flows eastward, and no one can stop it.
Write at the end:
Recently, based on the observation of many events in Vanke, Bogo's property market team has carried out relatively more comprehensive thinking and analysis, and will never be disturbed by the saliva of many people, has our own independent judgment, and adheres to our own objective and subtle professional spirit for many years, which has not changed.
It will definitely not curry favor with certain people and forces.
Although the individual is small, we will always adhere to the objective character of the profession and the third party, and hope to contribute to the great development of the industry and the country in a timely manner.
Can we go hand in hand at the objective and trend level, the gene and the objective understanding are different, and there is no need to force the integration - you have your choice, I want mine to stick to it, that's all.
After the year, more and more relevant leaders and friends like and support our platform more and more, which also makes us reflect deeply and firmly believe that what our team insists on is correct.
In fact, this point, judging from the logic behind the above-mentioned incident of Vanke, is the same path, and the inside is the same, no different.
According to the Yellow Emperor's Neijing, all changes, under the abundance of the god snow muscle, are the result of independent guarding of the gods; It is also an effective proof that you can live a hundred years old, be able to be full of spirit and nurture new life.
Of course, it is difficult to synchronize each individual's experience, experience and thoughts, and there is no need to do so, so it is normal for all kinds of understanding of the Vanke incident to be deep and shallow.
Vanke and Bogo, like all of you, can only act and observe.
However, the background of trends and history cannot be changed by a certain era or some forces.
Through many voices, it is no longer in line with the general trend of historical evolution to challenge or subvert China's real estate and other industries and the core subjects in them.
It boils down to this:
Only because he is in this mountain, and deliberately, he does not know the true face of Lushan.
It's realistic, it's sad, it's pathetic, isn't it?
Vanke, which is already China's Vanke, wants to fall, and adults will not agree.
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