Author |kangins
Vanke, an excellent industry benchmark real estate company, is once again standing on the edge of the cliff!
After Country Garden, a top student of private real estate enterprises, was liquidated by creditors, Vanke, as a benchmark in the mixed industry, fell into the rumors of a debt crisis again
Vanke's request for a debt due in December 2023 that had been negotiated for a three-month extension to March this year was rejected when it was rejected.
At the end of February, according to REORG, Vanke was negotiating with some lending institutions (mainly insurance companies) for the extension of non-standard debt to extend the maturity of its non-standard debt; Originally scheduled to expire in December 2023, with a three-month extension to March this year, as the maturity date approached again, a group of senior executives led by Vanke Chairman Yu Liang traveled to Beijing to meet with regulators and negotiate with creditors on potential asset disposals, according to a screenshot of a WeChat chat that circulated wildly in real estate circles today(Reply to "vk" in the comment area to get).Display:
The creditor rejected Vanke's request for another extension!
If Vanke, which was the first to shout the slogan of "survival" in the real estate industry, defaults on its debts, its industry is no less than the shocking opening of Evergrande to the real estate industry at the beginning
This is a super nuclear strike that the market can no longer afford!
If we look at the relevant external indicators, the bond market, which naturally has the advantage of a large number of channel information, has obviously opened the early warning mode, and many Vanke domestic bonds have appeared
1. "21 Vanke 02" for two consecutive days**, Friday (March 1)**679 yuan, compared with 96 at the beginning of January7 yuan** nearly 30%, setting the largest historical decline of the coupon;
2. "22 Vanke 01" Friday** (March 1) 8567 yuan, from the highest point of 100 a week ago01 yuan, down nearly 15%;
3. Many Vanke bonds such as "20000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
And this may be closely related to Vanke's small composition.
In the current situation of poor real estate financing, sales revenue is the last citadel to ensure that the debt of real estate companies does not default, let's take a look at two sets of data:
Vanke's annual sales were 350.4 billion yuan, with an average of nearly 30 billion yuan per month, and the sales situation in almost every month basically maintained a good rhythm;
At the beginning of the year, according to CRIC data, Vanke's sales in the first two months were 194500 million, 117800 million;
Judging from the data, the total sales in the two months of 2024 are 312200 million, which is almost equivalent to one month's sales in 2023, while Vanke's peak repayment period for US dollar bonds in the first half of this year is in March and June, and it needs to be repaid separately 6US$300 million US$600 million, equivalent to about 9 billion yuan.
Coming soon, it will be required to repay 6. in March and June respectivelyThe peak of debt repayment of 300 million US dollars, 600 million US dollars, and about 9 billion yuan is coming.
Some people are thinking, it's only 9 billion, and Vanke still has 100 billion cash on its account, what is the market worried about?
Nine out of ten crises in real estate.
This round of liquidity crisis in the real estate industry began with the industry debt crisis caused by Evergrande's liquidity crisis, and from September 2021 to the present, there are two core problems in the current real estate industry:
Insufficient liquidity + insufficient demand
If it is said that the lack of liquidity leads to the precipitation of real estate enterprises' funds in land and unfinished buildings, thus endangering the liquidity problem; Then, the lack of demand caused by the sales side will lead to the precipitation of real estate enterprises' funds on the existing house, thus endangering the liquidity problem.
Obviously, the main concern for Vanke lies in the latter. This market concern is similar to Vanke's previous concern at the end of October when it faced a sharp increase in the yield of US dollar bonds in the secondary market
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the company has cash on hand of 103.7 billion, and the coverage multiple of short-term debt is 22 times, and the company has no overseas debts due during the year, and the domestic credit debts to be repaid are only 3800 million yuan.
The market is not worried about whether you have enough cash on hand to cover short-term debt, but rather about it
At the end of 2022, Vanke still has 200 billion+ cash on hand
In less than a year, half of it has been consumed, and with Vanke's sales almost halved, how long can the cash flow in hand last under the pressure of continuous debt repayment, after all, from the liquidity crisis in the real estate industry to the current balance sheet crisis, what should be done in the future? If the confidence of the market is boosted, and thus the recovery of sales is promoted, it becomes the key. In addition to paying off debts, part of the cash flow will continue to solidify quickly into existing homes, which is where the market's concern lies.
This time, in addition to emergency consultations with the debtor, the senior management team led by Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke, is obviously fighting for high-level policy space, and the debtor has eaten a nose, but fortunately, the attitude of the senior management to the support of the excellent real estate company Vanke is still very obvious
It is planned to use the three warehousing and logistics park projects owned by Shenzhen Wanwei Logistics Investment, a holding subsidiary, as infrastructure assets, to carry out the declaration and issuance of infrastructure REITs, and to raise about 11 funds for the first sale5.9 billion yuan, and the net proceeds will be used for ......of projects under construction or new projects that have matured in the early stage.
Here is the key point:
1. The money raised this time is a project under construction or a new project that has matured in the early stage.
2. The company received the acceptance notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on March 1, obviously, this efficiency is no one;
Of course, Vanke's ability to seek targeted bailouts from the top management is closely related to its own benchmark status as a real estate company, as well as its own clear perception
God helps those who help themselves
Unlike Wanda's Lao Wang, who started selling and selling the least high-quality assets, Vanke just sold the best quality assets directly as soon as he made a move
On Chinese New Year's Eve, Vanke sold the remaining 50% of its most profitable Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza for 23$8.3 billion for Asia's largest real estate**: Link REIT**, which is not only lower than the appraised 35%, but also compared to the previous price of 50% in April 2021 at the time27700 million is about 20% lower.
And Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza's ability to make money in the Vanke system is almost a brother-level existence, and it has dominated the list for a long time.
Even in 2022, when the epidemic is at its worst, the project income is still god-like, much higher than that of the second place, Shenzhen SCP Center.
It's all a sell-sell-sell model, and it's all about the rivers and lakes, but whether to start selling from the worst assets or from the best quality assets obviously illustrates another deep-seated problem:
The degree of emergency relief varies.
At present, the policy for the real estate industry has become increasingly clear, real estate companies must deleverage if they want to survive, but for the current real estate companies, most of them are borrowing new debts to repay old debts, which cannot solve the debt pressure, but only push the risk to the future, looking forward to the future market improvement to resolve the debt, and exchange time for space.
Since 2022, regulators have issued a large number of policies to support the financing of real estate enterprises:
1. The "16 Financial Articles" issued by last year's Double 11:For the financing of real estate enterprises, state-owned, private enterprises and other real estate enterprises are treated equally;
The ** economic work conference held every five years held on March 31 mentioned:"Meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination. ”
At the end of the month, "three not less than" + the legendary "50 real estate enterprise white list" + "provide unsecured liquidity fund loans to real estate enterprises";
The beginning of 2024:
On January 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the Notice on the Establishment of a Coordination Mechanism for Urban Real Estate Financing;
On the 26th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a "white list" to support real estate financing projects;
3. As of February 28, 276 cities across the country have established urban financing coordination mechanisms, and about 6,000 projects have been shortlisted for the real estate "white list", with approved loans exceeding 200 billion yuan, and the total amount is expected to exceed one trillion yuan;
4. Real estate in first-tier cities have "relaxed" restrictions on purchase and sale, and ...... mortgage interest rates have been lowered
As the saying goes, faith is more important than **. For many real estate companies that are screaming at the moment, more important than confidence is: