The median age of the population in the United States is 388 years old, but U.S. political leaders tend to be twice as old as this median: Biden is 81 years old and still seeking re-election; The Republican Party's firm candidate Trump is 77 years old; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, 73; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is 82 years old.
Gerontopolitics has not yet retreated
The "new generation" who are regarded as young are all in their fifties and sixties: Kamala Harris is 59 years old; Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, 52; House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
These new generations are more commonly regarded as "lightweights", and even if they can continue to work in the leadership position, it will probably not be taken seriously until the age of the first few old people.
On 28 February, McConnell, who had already led the Senate Republican Party during George W. Bush's tenure, finally decided to retire. Although he will remain in the Senate until the end of his term in 2027 (which is itself a continuation of gerontocracy), he will hand over the position of Republican leader in the Senate after November of this year**.
This is a commendable decision from a purely generational perspective. However, most of McConnell's potential successors are in their 70s, and the youngest is in their 60s. On the whole, the gerontocracy of the United States has not yet "retreated".
Although McConnell was hospitalized for a fall last year, and was absent from Senate meetings for a while, and twice suddenly stopped under reporters' questions, health problems were not the main reason for McConnell's retirement. Mr. McConnell said he thought it was time for "the next generation of leaders," suggesting that "knowing when to unveil the next chapter of life" was an underrated talent. But most importantly, it was the upheaval in Republican politics.
McConnell admitted, "I know the politics of my party at this particular time, and I have many weaknesses, but misunderstanding politics is not one of them. This sentence already explains the real reason for his retreat.
Success and defeat of Trump are also Trump
Since Trump came to prominence in 2016, McConnell has been in an awkward position. McConnell hates Trump's populism, but his own confrontational politics of the Obama era's almost blanket blockade of White House policy has nurtured the polarization behind Trump's escape.
Some analysts also believe that if McConnell had not blocked Obama's nomination of today's Attorney General Merrick Garland as the Supreme Court in 2016, the appointment of conservative justices would have become an issue in Trump's campaign.
During Trump's tenure, McConnell used Trump's power to appoint a large number of conservative federal justices, and expanded the conservative majority of the Supreme Court, which used to be at most 5 to 4, to a 6 to 3 majority. This is arguably his greatest political legacy. Without his long-standing preemption of judicial power, the 50-year-old constitutional guarantee of abortion would not have been overturned. Without his push for conservative judges to take power, the "document gate" with the strongest legal and factual basis in today's four Trump criminal cases may not have fallen into the hands of federal judges appointed by Trump who were suspected of favoritism in the past.
After Congress** on January 6, 2021, McConnell, who had said that Trump was "physically and morally responsible," had hoped that the Republican Party would enter the stage of "de-Trumpization" as a result. But he himself refused to support Trump and forbade Trump to run again when Trump was at his weakest, which indirectly caused Trump to further devour the entire Republican system today.
In the past two years of the Russia-Ukraine war, McConnell can be regarded as his last political task to support Ukraine to defeat Russia, and often mentioned the importance of aiding Ukraine in his Senate speeches. After Biden proposed a new round of aid to Ukraine last summer, McConnell's attitude was to respond immediately. However, at the instigation of Trump's faction, McConnell's grip on Senate Republicans became weaker and weaker, and he was eventually forced to adopt a mainstream stance that tied aid to Ukraine to the U.S.-Mexico border. Today, when there is a shortage of artillery shells in Ukraine and the front line is gradually collapsing, the bill passed by the Senate to aid Ukraine has not been enacted because of the obstruction of Republican House Speaker Johnson.
From this point of view, McConnell's retirement can be said to be a dismal end. He himself was eventually defeated by the "monster" he had a part in creating. However, he is also a good observer of the political winds, and it can be said that he has arranged a decent final chapter for his downfall.
What about Biden?
Coincidentally, on the same day that McConnell announced his retirement, Biden, who continues to be haunted by advanced age issues, examined by his doctor and declared that he was still qualified for the job, "without any exceptions or help to fully fulfill his responsibilities", and that he did not have any new health problems.
One of the reasons McConnell went away was that he realized that he couldn't fight Trump politically. Biden seems to be very confident that he will defeat Trump again. Although his "Bidennomics" failed to convince Americans, and his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict also aroused political revulsion within the Democratic Party, not to mention the political revulsion caused by his image as an old and weak, Biden's supporters still believe that the word "Trump" will eventually lead to Biden's victory again.
In the eyes of many political observers, the absurdity of the 2024 U.S. ** election is born from this: under Biden's weakness, Trump is the only Republican who is likely to lose to Biden; Among the controversy of Trump himself, Biden is also the only Democrat who is likely to lose to Trump.
From the perspective of personal political legacy, if Biden finally defeats Trump by only a slight margin, the "Trump Rebellion" will be an endless story, and even if Trump does not run again, there will be a bunch of "little Trump" in the Republican Party waiting to take office, and Biden's original vision of reuniting the people will be frustrated.
If Biden is defeated by Trump, he will become the incompetent person in history who loves power and pushes the United States into the abyss of isolationism and right-wing populism.
It's never too late to do the right thing. It is a little late to abstain from the election, but the Democrats will still have a few months to put forward a more convincing figure through intra-party competition. Although the last Democratic National Convention in 1968, which did not determine the outcome of the first candidate, ultimately indirectly led to the rise of Richard Nixon, it is obviously arbitrary to draw conclusions based on a single historical example.
* With each passing day looming, if Biden can't dramatically reverse his current backwards over Trump in the foreseeable future, arranging a more decent ending for himself like McConnell may be a wise choice.