Not long ago, the Philippines tried to get close to the United States and participate in joint military exercises in the South China Sea, but was met with a decisive response from China, which successfully thwarted the interference plan of the United States and the Philippines. However, on March 5, the Philippines provoked again by sending four ships into the waters near Ren'ai Jiao in China's Spratly Islands, one of which deliberately rammed a Chinese ship that was cruising normally, causing the ship to scrape slightly.
In response, a spokesman for the China Coast Guard accused the Philippines of provocative behavior, saying that it was causing trouble and deliberately inciting hype. The China Coast Guard said it would always maintain a high degree of vigilance and stand ready to resolutely safeguard national interests. In addition, Zhang Xiaogang, spokesman for China's Ministry of National Defense, also issued a warning, urging the Philippine side not to insist on going its own way and causing trouble, and the Chinese military will resolutely counteract. These two tough statements are intended to send a clear message to the Philippines against further border crossings, and that China has sufficient capabilities to resolutely retaliate.
After China's resolute warning, Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos quickly changed his tune. Marcos said in Australia that he was willing to work with China to address challenges in the South China Sea through channels, stressing that the two countries share "genes," according to the Observer. Marcos said he "has no objection to the resumption of friendly coexistence between the two countries, after all, the two countries have a long history of exchanges."
The reasons for Marcos's more moderate stance are complex and profound. First of all, he is well aware that the best relationship between China and the Philippines is of vital importance to both sides. Fruits and other products exported by the Philippines occupy a place in the Chinese market, which has provided a huge boost to the economic development of the Philippines. At the same time, Chinese investment is driving the Philippines toward modernization. As a result, an all-out confrontation with China could have serious implications for the Philippines' development, and Marcos must carefully weigh domestic public opinion given domestic calls for peace.
Second, the Philippines' geopolitical position makes it difficult to confront China head-on. While the United States and Australia have expressed support, this support has been more about seeing the Philippines as a frontline than real aid. In a possible conflict, the United States, Japan, and Australia have a high probability of watching from the sidelines, leaving the Philippines without sufficient support. More critically, the Philippines' maritime power cannot compete with China's, making it difficult for the Philippines to secure victory in the event of a local conflict in the South China Sea.
Moreover, the Philippines recognizes that it is more of a pawn than a decisive player in the geopolitical game. Despite its historical ties with the United States, particularly the long-standing mutual defense treaty between the two countries, Marcos made it clear that the Philippines' national interests should not be held hostage to those of others. He wisely avoided the Philippines from becoming a victim of the great power game, remained independent and refused to be tied to the chariot of hegemony.
Despite Marcos' slightly softer stance, he is still seeking balance while also sending provocative signals against China. China needs to remain vigilant and deploy sufficient forces in the South China Sea to maintain regional peace and stability.