"Germany is in the midst of a manufacturing and real estate crisis, Spain and Italy are anti-growth! "！
Some time ago, Germany was hit by the double whammy of the manufacturing and housing markets, and its economy will contract by 03%, while the whole year will contract by 03%。Industrial production in Germany has been interrupted by low-cost energy from Russia** and a weak Chinese market. At the same time, parts shipments to the Red Sea region were cut off, leaving the car manufacturer in a difficult position.
In addition, the housing market in Germany has also been hit hard by the decline in housing** and the cancellation of projects by developers, which has caused a decline in the construction industry. A general rail strike threatens to start 2024 with GDP contracting again in a year that pushes Germany into a real recession.
At the same time, the French economy has been weakening for two months. The retail and hotel sectors have also suffered as high interest rates have raised the company's financing costs, resulting in a significant reduction in the company's investment. Farmers are opposed to EU regulations and bureaucracy, which makes it difficult for France to emerge from the recession.
In stark contrast, growth in Spain and Italy picked up at the end of fiscal 2023 with a growth rate of 06%, compared to 02%。Spain has benefited to some extent from the strong recovery in tourism.
The United Kingdom** reported that the eurozone recorded zero growth in the fourth quarter of last year, avoiding an economic depression. Eurostat announced that in the first quarter of this year, the eurozone economy contracted by 01%。In 2023, Eurozone GDP will rise by 05 percentage points.
Diegoiscaro, an analyst at Standard Global Market Intelligence, said, "The outlook for 2024 will continue to be challenging due to weak demand and geopolitical tensions." We believe that economic activity in the Eurozone will remain stagnant in the first half of 2024.
In stark contrast, the IMF has significantly lowered its growth forecast for Germany this year, raising GDP growth to 0.0 in 20245%, compared to an estimate of 0 in October last year9 per cent, which is the most severe among the seven industrialized countries. France's economic growth forecast is 1%, lower than the previous forecast of 03%, while the eurozone as a whole is expected to grow at 09% up from 1 three months ago2% has fallen.
In the second half of 2023, most countries around the world showed stronger resilience than expected, but "not every country will feel this growth momentum," the IMF said. The eurozone's weakness is largely due to low consumer confidence, high energy**, and weak manufacturing and business investment.
Germany's economy as a whole is being seriously challenged, it is the engine of the eurozone, and its recession will have a deep impact on the entire region.