On Wednesday, the main month 2404 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, and the latest price at 09:53 was 68940 yuan ton, **032%ï¼›Overnight, LME copper was quoted at $8,489 tonnes, **042%.The domestic spot discount continued to weaken, and it was difficult to improve temporarily, and the spot trading became cold, which put pressure on copper prices.
In the domestic market, with the gradual implementation of the relevant policies of the "two sessions", market expectations have gradually become clear. In terms of finance, the deficit ratio is arranged at 3%, and the amount of local special bonds reaches 39 trillion, which is basically in line with market expectations. The expression of monetary policy also shows the characteristics of stability and neutrality, providing policy support for stable economic growth.
In the international market, the performance of the European and American manufacturing industries has shown a divergent trend. The U.S. economy is relatively strong, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI has declined, and the German manufacturing PMI has hit a four-month low. This pattern of divergence poses a challenge to the global economic recovery. At the same time, the slowdown in the rate of inflation has made the Federal Reserve continue to suppress market expectations for interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has been supported and shown a leading trend. This has put valuation pressure on copper prices, limiting the space for copper prices.
From the perspective of the fundamentals of the copper market, the spot processing fee of copper concentrate has fallen to a historical low, and the blister copper ** also appears to be nervous. This may have an impact on the follow-up of domestic refined copper, thereby supporting copper prices. Although the current domestic copper inventory is still in the seasonal accumulation stage, it is expected to start to enter the destocking stage in late March with the recovery of downstream consumption. Global copper inventories are also at low levels, and LME inventories continue to decline, which further exacerbates the tension in the copper market.
Entering March, copper downstream consumption will face a practical test. If demand is weaker than expected, copper prices may come under adjustment pressure. However, considering the boosting effect of the new energy sector, copper consumption is still resilient. Coupled with the current low copper inventory and ** disruptive factors, the space below the copper price is limited.
Overall, domestic and foreign policies and the economic environment have had a complex impact on copper prices. Under the background of the gradual implementation of domestic policy expectations and the complex and changeable international economic environment, the copper market will face multiple tests. Investors need to pay close attention to domestic and foreign policy developments, economic data, and changes in the fundamentals of the copper market to formulate a reasonable investment strategy. At the same time, it is also necessary to recognize that there is limited space below the copper price, and investors should remain cautious in their operations.