**Wanfen Incentive Plan In the past six months, a leading real estate company has seen multiple double kills of stocks and bonds. Not only that, but there are also rumors in the market that the negotiations for the extension of its non-standard financing are not going well.
As the first real estate company to shout "survive" and has a state-owned background, it has always been regarded as the most stable super top student in the industry. It seems that such a belief is also quite precarious. That's right, it's Vanke. In the face of such a change, it is not groundless. In particular, Shanghai Qibao Vanke's discount in February was regarded as a milestone for Vanke's "broken arm". Receiver Link Real Estate, with 238.4 billion **, acquired 50% of the equity of Shanghai Qibao Vanke held by Vanke. You must know that the project is not only one of the highest-quality assets of Vanke's commercial projects, but also the project valuation once exceeded 7 billion.
As one of Vanke's most high-quality assets, the project not only has subway facilities, but also has an occupancy rate of more than 93%, and its annual revenue once exceeded 400 million yuan. Vanke's move has also raised concerns about its liquidity. According to the data of the third quarter of 2023, Vanke's current liabilities are 940.5 billion, accounting for 76% of the overall debt scale, of which short-term borrowings are 364.5 billion. Vanke's onshore bond balance is about 64 billion yuan, with a maturity of 240 billion yuan in the next 12 months800 million yuan, and the balance of foreign debt was 32$2.5 billion, with a debt maturity of $12 over the next 12 monthsUS$300 million, and the corresponding maturities of the three outstanding US dollar bonds during the year were March, May and June this year. The corresponding cash flow was 103.6 billion. In other words, Vanke's debt risk in 2024 is not high, but the repayment pressure of short-term debt still exists. Today's real estate sales expectations are too poor. In the past year, Vanke's sales were 3755400 million, ranking second, and the first is Poly with 420.7 billion. Such sales figures, after deducting business costs, are extremely limited. Therefore, if the sales of real estate continue to fail to pick up, and are in the first trend for a long time. Even Vanke struggled to withstand cash flow pressure. As a company with a keen sense of smell, Vanke's prognosis has always been very good, just like when Boss Sun was still grabbing land, he shouted "live". In view of Vanke's strong prognosis in history, Vanke's layout today has shaken the expectations of the entire market for Vanke. We don't know much about Vanke, but no one knows Vanke better than Vanke.
So what are the risks of Vanke? The answer is definitely not a big problem, because as of the third quarter report of 2023, Vanke's inventory is as high as 814.7 billion, as long as the inventory can be sold, after all, Vanke's inventory is not like Evergrande and Country Garden, and most of Vanke's inventory is urban high-quality assets. The problem is that if it wants to sell inventory, Vanke is not under pressure. After all, Vanke sold the house at a 7% discount last year, but it was directly stopped. Therefore, Vanke is facing not only the problem of sales channels, but also the problem of whether it is supported. Discounts are not allowed to sell, and the rollover is not powerful. It's really embarrassing, and I really don't blame Vanke.
Of course, we don't have to be careful. Because Vanke's debt problem is not only Vanke's pressure, but also the credit problem of the entire industry. Vanke is like the last straw of real estate.
It is a beacon of the industry, either up or down. "Survival" was the beginning of a new cycle, and today's "solvency pressure" may also be the end of a new cycle.
Now, don't be too pessimistic." In my opinion, everything will change because of Vanke. Of course, Vanke's real estate may be able to wait, and there is a high probability that in the second and third quarters, there will be some sincerity handed over to the market.