**From @VisualChina.
More than half of the 2030 plan to triple the installed capacity of global renewable energy proposed by the International Renewable Energy Agency comes from photovoltaics, and the industry has broad development prospects. For China's photovoltaic enterprises, it is especially necessary to accelerate the overseas layout and expand the global market. At the seminar on overseas photovoltaic market analysis and investment opportunities held on February 28, Ru Jialin, director of the international cooperation department of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, emphasized the necessity and importance of photovoltaic going overseas. He also said that in the past, China's photovoltaic products were still mainly exported overseas, and the form of "going out" will be more diversified in the future, which also brings new challenges to enterprises.
In the past two years, the competition in the international photovoltaic market has become more and more fierce, what risks may Chinese photovoltaic enterprises face in the process of going overseas? And how can we deal with it?
In June 2023, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) set out the 2030 targets and plans outlined above in the World Energy Transition Outlook 2023, stating that this is essential for limiting global temperature rise to 1Within 5 is very important. In September, the 18th G20 Summit adopted the G20 New Delhi Summit Declaration, agreeing to the goal of tripling the global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 (a twofold increase is the same as a tripling of the meaning, but among the targets proposed by different institutions and occasions in the text, the base year setting is slightly different or does not propose a clear base year, but in terms of the overall level of 2030, there is not much difference). On November 15, China and the United States issued a Sunnyland Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, expressing support for the G20 Leaders' Declaration on efforts to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and plans to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy in both countries. At COP28 (COP28 COP28).More than 100 countries have reached an agreement to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, according to estimates, the volume is roughly around 11,000 GW, andBy then, the installed PV capacity will reach 5,457GW, equivalent to nearly 38 times
At the same time, for China's photovoltaic industry,The growth rate of overseas markets is likely to exceed the growth rate of domestic markets in the future。According to the latest data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 216 in 202388gw，148.The year-on-year growth rate of 1% set a new historical record, accounting for more than half of the total new installed capacity in the world. Xing Yiteng, director of the New Energy Division of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, once said that the acceleration of downstream development in the post-epidemic era, the concentration of large wind and solar bases, and the unexpected price reduction of the upstream manufacturing end are the background of China's photovoltaic installed capacity exceeding expectations in 2023, and this situation is not the norm and will be difficult to reproduce in the future (the downstream installed capacity is at a new high, the upstream is at a new low, and the photovoltaic will be reshuffled after the "record year"). According to the China Photovoltaic Industry AssociationThe conservative estimate of China's new PV installed capacity in 2024 is 190GW, which is lower than that in 2023, and it is expected to be 220GW in an optimistic scenario, which is only basically the same level as in 2023。And in the China Photovoltaic Industry AssociationAmong the world's PV installed capacity, it will be between 390-430GW in 2024In other words, in the case that China's installed capacity growth may be negative or slow down significantly, the global installed capacity will still maintain positive growth, and the year-on-year growth rate will reach the level of 10% in an optimistic situation, which also indicates that there is a high probability that the overseas market will grow faster than the domestic market as mentioned above. 
In addition, the International Energy Agency has also said that with the United States, India and other countries to support the development of the local photovoltaic industry related policies, photovoltaic manufacturing will become more diversified, although China will still dominate the industry, but by 3 years, China's proportion of global production capacity is expected to fall to 75% to 90% range (in the past two years roughly in the 80%-95% range), if the geopolitical impact continues to expand, this proportion may be further reduced to about 60% to 75%. In the past two years, the statement from "Made in China, sold globally" to "Made globally and sold globally" has received more and more attention in the industry.
At the seminar on overseas photovoltaic market analysis and investment opportunities, representatives of the European Photovoltaic Association (SPE), the German Solar Energy Association (BSW), the French Renewable Energy Association (SER), and the Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Association (ABSOLAR) respectively introduced the development status of the solar photovoltaic industry in their countries and looked forward to the future, or emerging markets such as South America and the Middle East, which have greater ambitions and higher expectations in photovoltaic development. Ru Jialin also saidIn addition to the traditional markets in Europe and the United States,Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America and other regions have also become new highlights that have attracted the attention of China's photovoltaic enterprises。In the face of overcapacity in China, the inability to absorb overcapacity, the fierce competition at low prices, and the probability of slowing down the growth rate of market demand, the importance of overseas markets has been further enhanced, and a new round of overseas tide has been opened with more diversification from destinations to forms.
At a time when the climate problem is becoming more severe and the task of temperature control is becoming more and more urgent, it is a consensus that the global photovoltaic industry needs to accelerate its development, and its market prospects are beyond doubt. But China's photovoltaic road to the sea, no matter whatThe export of products is still in the overseas construction of production capacity, and currently encountered some difficulties
Jin Lei, Director of the Electronic Foundation Division of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the seminar on the development review of the photovoltaic industry in 2023 and the outlook for the situation in 2024 that China's photovoltaic industry is currently facing a severe and complex international situationDisturbed by factors such as global competition and first-class barriers, it has brought uncertainty to the photovoltaic industry and products "going global".
Combing the relevant situation in the past two years, it can be seen that the world's largest markets except China - the United States, the European Union, and India, have all introduced policies to promote the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and are not conducive to the layout of China's photovoltaic international or overseas markets, such as the United States' "Inflation Reduction Act", the European Union's "Net Zero Industry Act", India's manufacturing incentive program (PLI), etc., as well as many anti-circumvention and countervailing investigations, tariffs and other restrictive measures. This, coupled with the global overcapacity and price reduction of photovoltaic products (especially photovoltaic modules), has led to:China's photovoltaic exports have a phenomenon of "volume increase and price reduction".。According to Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, among China's major photovoltaic export products in 2023, the export volume of silicon wafers will be 703GW, a year-on-year increase of 936%；The export volume of cells was 393GW, a year-on-year increase of 655%；Previously, the highest module export volume in overseas market demand was 2117GW, also 379% year-on-year growth; However, in terms of export value, the total in 2023 will be 484$800 million, compared to 2022, an increase of 5The decline of 4% is also the first decline in exports since 2020, and 2020 is a "volume and price decline", when the volume and decline (12%) are also lower than in 2023.
In 2023, China's photovoltaic product exports will "increase in volume and decrease in price".
In addition, changes in overseas markets have also led to the backlog of some of China's products in ports or seizures by consuming countries, resulting in damage to asset values, and the return of some "overseas returns" has had an impact on the domestic market.
In response to this situation, Cao Qianrui, chief researcher of the Planning Research Institute of China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, said that at present, the chain of the global chain is shrinking, the rules are being adjusted, and the overall pattern is being reconstructedThe known ** restrictions are not temporary, and this trend will continue in the future
In addition to the overall adjustment of the global pattern,In recent years, frequent geopolitical conflicts have also had an impact on China's photovoltaic industryEspecially the recent Red Sea crisis。According to Xu Yue, director of logistics of Huasheng New Energy, the Red Sea crisis has led to a soaring freight rate for China's photovoltaic products exported to Europe, and the voyage, cargo safety, and delivery cycle are also facing uncertainty.
According to the calculations of Xu Yue, logistics director of Huasheng New Energy, the Red Sea crisis has led to a 208% increase in the logistics cost per watt of China's photovoltaic modules shipped to Europe
In the case of product exports being blocked, geopolitical risks intensifying, and overseas mainstream markets have implemented photovoltaic manufacturing localization policiesChina's photovoltaic industry has also seen a new wave of "going overseas to build factories".The landmark event is the gathering of the five major module companies (JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar) in the United States, among which Trina Solar, JA Solar, and Canadian Solar's first U.S. production line layout will be reached in 2023.
However, there is also great uncertainty about the landing of overseas production capacity. According to a previous report by Caijing, many companies will be in a dilemma when making the decision to build factories at sea, mainly because:Worried about changes in the policies of Europe and the United StatesIf the overseas production line is crowded out or restricted after completion, or the promised subsidies cannot be fulfilled, it will affect the operation of the enterprise. Sun Huaiyan, senior research consultant of Wood Mackenzie's photovoltaic industry chain, also said at the seminar that the current policy uncertainty is shrouded in the solar photovoltaic industry chain in the United States, in addition to the investigation and restrictions on import and export, the "Protecting American Advanced Manufacturing Act" (Protecting American Advanced Manufacturing Act) may also have a negative impact on the production capacity of Chinese photovoltaic companies in the United States. Canadian Solar 688472, one of the "Big Five".SH) senior vice president of operations Xiong Haibo also "appeared to say", saying that building factories overseas has encountered a lot of bitterness, setbacks and lessons, and in many uncertainties, plans can never catch up with the rapid change. It is reported that the company has a wide range of production capacity layout in North and South America and Southeast Asia.
In addition, the infrastructure support, the first chain system, and the business environment in the overseas market also restrict the landing, production and operation of production capacity, especially the enterprises that go to sea for the first time, in China are accustomed to the generous policies, land and electricity and other support provided by the local government in recent years, as well as the first system of the whole industry chain and the rich basic talent reserve, which are often difficult to adapt to and find a clue after arriving overseas.
Moreover,Building factories overseas also faces challenges such as meeting local regulatory requirements and customs, which consumes manpower, financial resources and energy。Ru Jialin also said that in the process of going overseas, due to the unfamiliarity with local laws and policy environment, coupled with cultural differences and other issues, it is easy to lead to slow decision-making, slow action, and hindered market development.
The road to sea is difficult, but it is the only way for photovoltaic enterprises, especially leading enterprises, to survive and develop. Judging from the recent trends and attitudes of leading companies in the employment industry, "going out" to participate in global market competition is still one of 688599 the main directions in the futureSH) Chairman Gao Jifan once said,No matter which link of the photovoltaic industry chain is a company, if it wants to improve its competitiveness, it is imperative to have a global layout
As for what problems and risks should be paid attention to in the future of the industry and enterprises, many industry professionals and researchers also gave opinions and suggestions.
Ru Jialin believes that at present, the market potential of some countries and regions has not been fully developed, and China's photovoltaic enterprises can look more broadly when conducting overseas market investigations, and they need to avoid putting their eggs in one basket when making decisions. He also said that exchanges and communication with the Middle East and North Africa is one of the priorities of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association this year.
Wang Bohua also mentioned in his speechLast year, China's photovoltaic product exports showed a more diversified appearanceThe two major markets of Europe and the United States both accounted for more than 10% of total exports, while Asia rose by 63%, and Africa, which had a low base, increased by nearly 60% year-on-year; The proportion of the top 10 module exporters has decreased from 70% to 62%, while the number of exporters with more than US$100 million has increased by seven, and markets such as Belgium, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have grown rapidly, ranking among the top 10 exporters.
Diversification is conducive to diversifying risks and enhancing diversification capabilities, but after all, the European and American markets still account for half of the country, especially in the module sector, where the two markets together account for 64% of total exports4%, the dynamics of which still need to be paid attention to. Wang Bohua prompted,The European Net Zero Industry Act will come into effect in June this year, and the support policies for the local manufacturing industry are gradually increasingIn the United States, the "anti-circumvention" investigation tariff exemption for photovoltaic products in four Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand) will also expire in June this year, and there is great uncertainty about the next policy, which has a great impact on the production lines of China's photovoltaic enterprises in Southeast AsiaThe results of the United States affect its overall energy policy and planning, and enterprises with production capacity layout in the United States need to pay special attention
In terms of global chain risk management, Cao Qianrui believes that the biggest challenges faced by Chinese enterprises are in external operations (including emergencies, crowding out of the international market, changes in customer needs, etc.), internal management (including increased construction costs, increasingly complex systems, higher requirements for digital capabilities, etc.) and ecological collaboration (including the transparency of the first chain network, the synergy between upstream and downstream, etc.), and it is recommended that enterprises focus on itBuild a resilient chain, maintain appropriate redundancy, and improve the flexibility and agility of the chain；At the same time, we should pay attention to the diversification of leading businesses and accelerate the global layout to diversify risks; In addition, it is also necessary to establish a "chain" thinking, and build a first-chain ecology of the industrial chain through upstream and downstream coordination, mutual promotion at home and abroad, etc.
In terms of corporate strategy, Zhang Sen, Secretary-General of the Photovoltaic Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, suggested that photovoltaic companies maintain a high proportion of global **, insist on innovation and enhance their core competitiveness, and at the same timeEstablish a green and low-carbon certification standard system for photovoltaic productsIntensify efforts to establish a high-level ESG systemto prepare for smoother exports and seas
Cao Haihua, a senior analyst of the Yangtze River power equipment and new energy industry, analyzed from the perspective of enterprise competitive advantage, that internationalization is an important part of the competitiveness of photovoltaic enterprises, and the ability of companies to grasp the future overseas market is likely to play a key role in the competitive landscape.
He believes that at the level of overseas logistics, photovoltaic companies should establish a risk management team to quickly respond to such emergencies, and at the same time establish flexible transportation plans and logistics backup plans, set up production bases or warehousing centers in Europe and other product consumption places, and establish close cooperation with the company to jointly deal with challenges. He also said that the rise and vigorous development of China's photovoltaic industry is a matter of the past ten or twenty yearsSmall and medium-sized enterprises still have obvious shortcomings in the refinement of operation, especially in the accuracy of the first-chain plan, and there is still a big gap with traditional enterprises such as automobiles and home appliancesIn the future, it is also necessary to focus on improving the capabilities of production and operation planning, logistics coordination, and delivery cycle planning.
It is true that in terms of the current situation, whether it is the export of products or the construction of factories at sea, photovoltaic companies are facing a lot of difficulties, obstacles and uncertainties, but as the saying goes, the bigger the wind and waves, the bigger the fish, I believe that those who stand at the head of the tide will eventually be able to access a broader sea of stars. (This article was first published.)onTitanium**app, AuthorHu Jiameng, editLiu Yangxue
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