The Arctic is likely to have an ice-free summer in the next decade, due to emissions from burning fossil fuels, one study found.
This will transform this unique habitat, home to polar bears, seals and walruses, from a "white Arctic" to a "blue Arctic" in the summer. The definition of "ice-free" used is less than 1 million square kilometres, in which case the Arctic will be predominantly water.
The findings, published in the journal Nature Review Earth and Environment, suggest that the first ice-free day in the Arctic may have occurred more than a decade earlier than the previous one.
According to the authors, from 2035 to 2067, we can expect to be ice-free every September. The exact year depends on how quickly the world reduces the burning of fossil fuels.
By the end of the century, there could be ice-free from May to January under a high emissions scenario; In the low-emission scenario, it's August to October.
Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and one of the study's lead authors, said: "This will turn the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic. So even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to reduce our emissions as much as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions. ”
However, she said, it is possible to solve the problem.
Unlike the Greenland ice sheet, which takes thousands of years to form, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can figure out how to move carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse global warming, then sea ice will return within a decade. Jahn said.
It's not just Arctic wildlife that suffers because of the melting of their habitats; People living along the coastline will also face challenges. Sea ice reduces the impact of waves on the coast, which means that if sea ice is lost, the waves become stronger and larger, causing more erosion.
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