Luka Doncic, a 25-year-old talent, is putting on a historic run this season. He averages 34 points per game4 points second only to Joel Embiid's 353 points, but with a minimum of 58 games required for the scoring title, Doncic will almost certainly be the scoring champion this season. In addition, he is close to the average of triple-doubles, contributing 9. per game7 assists and 88 rebounds.
Doncic is the first player in NBA history to average 34 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists per game in a single season, according to Stathead. And these stats are just the tip of the iceberg of his insane achievements this season. However, in betmgm's MVP betting odds, he is only behind Nikola Jokic and Shay Gilgeous-Alexander, with odds of +450 (implied probability of 18%).
Here's why he's more deserving of MVP than the odds suggest:
Why Luka Doncic should be MVP
Doncic played the best game of the season in the NBA!
This season, Doncic has put in some truly special performances. He faced a masterpiece of 73 points cut by the Eagles!
Just leading the team to victory with 73 points, 33 shots, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists is enough for us to conclude that this is unprecedented. No one has ever achieved such numbers before.
Even more unbelievable, against the Suns on Christmas, Doncic chipped in a big triple-double of 50 points, 15 assists, four steals and three blocks. That's right, it's the first time in NBA history that such a statistic has occurred.
There have been five games this season in which players have scored 50 points or more, with Doncic finishing No. 1 and No. 4 in both scoring performances, respectively. There have been other scoring explosions this season, but he's still the best performer.
On top of that, both of those jaw-dropping performances came in games where the Mavericks desperately needed to win every point. He didn't play for the stats of stats, which came naturally in key victories and fierce Western Division rivalry.
Doncic does the most with the least amount of resources
The Mavericks are currently 9 percentage points above their 50% win rate, but are in a tight battle for 5-10 spots in the Western Conference. Without Doncic, they could well fall out of the playoffs altogether.
Kyrie Irving integrated well into the team, but he missed 32 games. Grant Williams, a key player they signed through the free agent market, didn't do so well that he was traded in the 4th month of his 4-year contract. The Mavericks have lacked consistency this season, constantly bringing in players on the fly, and have been forced to experiment with all sorts of strange lineup combinations. None of their lineups have played more than 100 minutes this season.
Still, Doncic led the team to victory. They got rookie Derek Livley II and base-salary veteran Derrick Jones Jr., who signed at the end of the free agent marketAll on the scene. Doncic gave Jones a second career spring and made Livley look like a draft jewel.
MVP competitors generally have better rosters than Doncic. Nikola Jokic's team is a championship-caliber powerhouse. Shay Gilgeous-Alexander has Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and one of the league's deepest rosters. Brother Alphabet has Damian Lillard.
Doncic led the Mavericks with a group of abandoned players, young, untested players and a half-season Irving. In terms of team value, Doncic is the only barrier for the Mavericks to get away from the draft lotto.
Doncic solidified his biggest weakness
Doncic has come close to winning the MVP on several occasions. He has been ranked in the top eight of MVP voting for the past four years, with him having the highest ranking in his sophomore season at No. 4.
There are two main reasons that have prevented Doncic from reaching the MVP top vote in the past few years — one is that he is not aggressive defensively, and the other is that his advanced stats are not stellar.
Doncic will never be a defensive stalwart. But this season he has shown more aggressive defensive moments. For example, against the Timberwolves this year, he blocked Karl-Anthony Towns multiple times in the final minutes of the game and was generally excellent on the interior defensive end. The Mavericks' attempts to keep him as far away from the perimeter as possible to limit the problems caused by his pace of footwork have also helped him improve his defensive performance.
This season, Doncic has also excelled in advanced stats. He has a plus/minus of +76, a career-high, and ranked third in the league.
Doncic's improvement in advanced stats is largely due to his improved shooting percentage. He's always dared to shoot difficult threes, but now his three-point shooting percentage has improved dramatically. His three-point shooting percentage of 38 percent is a career-high and well above his career average of 33 before the season began8%。
The only thing that other players are better than Doncic is that they have a better team. But how much of a difference should this have on him getting MVP? What else needs to be done?