At the beginning of 2023, the epidemic is over, and people who have been confined for three years have begun to let go of their minds, looking forward to returning to the good days of the past97%, the artificial intelligence sector began to flourish in February, and the performance of the special valuation in the first half of the year was eye-catching, and the market was filled with the atmosphere of long China ......In the second half of the year, the situation changed abruptly, and the regulatory departments were in a hurry to make a good move, but they were defeated and retreated, and it was not until two days before the end of the year that they stabilized their positions.
Last year, although the financing amount of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange won the global championship and runner-up, the annual A** trend was unsatisfactory, but the mentality of investors in the A** field was completely unbalanced, and investor confidence entered the freezing point - which formed a sharp contrast with the beginning of the year.
Bloomberg's year-end summary was: "Almost everyone got China wrong", yes, investors in the A** market also got A-shares wrong.
Why is there such a contrasting collective "disappointment"?
We go back to the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, when people were intoxicated with the expectation of the end of the three-year pandemic, thinking that all nightmares would be over – and we took it for granted that we would return to the world of passionate entrepreneurship, singing and dancing, and spending time and drinking.
We have forgotten the current situation of our country before the epidemic, the real estate problem, the economic transformation problem, the demographic dividend problem, the local debt problem, the lack of domestic demand, the confidence problem of private entrepreneurs, the problem of US imperialist suppression, the problem of the great leap forward in financing, and we have forgotten that we are facing the ...... of great changes unseen in a centuryIn the three years of the epidemic, these problems have not only not disappeared, but most of them have become more serious. It's just that the epidemic that fell from the sky temporarily covered up all the problems, or stole the limelight from other problems, making people mistakenly think that as long as the epidemic problem is solved, everything will be fine! ——The epidemic has become the best "back-erping man" that people can lie down with peace of mind, and has become the best target for throwing the blame.
But when the good expectations at the beginning of the year (the flowers in the heart) can not be fulfilled (the flowers on the tree are delayed), the people who lie flat can no longer lie down, and they must begin to seriously examine the real world, and after the reality is repeatedly slapped in the face, they begin to return to common sense thinking, rationally look at everything they face, and begin to change their behavior, so we find that irrational consumption suddenly disappears, and the illusion that everything will automatically become better is shattered, and we understand that the only person who can help themselves may be themselves, and they are not important enough to not turn the world without themselves. Lying flat and not daring to make a noise, people began to pretend that they couldn't go on, they couldn't show off, and they couldn't fantasize anymore.
Returning to common sense to rationally look at the trend of A-shares in 2023, we will find that the trend is very normal and not unreasonable, how can the transformation of the economy with rapid development in 40 years be successful just because the epidemic disappears (development stalls), and the funds cannot make ends meet. ）？How can the continued interest rate hikes in the United States have no impact on our country? If you can use common sense to think about these problems at the beginning of the year, most of the pitfalls you have stepped on this year can actually be avoided.
Well, many investment mistakes could have been avoided this year.
Fortunately, our investment system (Flood Raiders Extreme Trading System) is a coping strategy, and avoiding mistakes and pitfalls is the basic function. In the first half of the year, we focused on China Special Valuation and artificial intelligence, as evidenced by the "Valentine's Day gifts" (related content related to investment opportunities) published in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Weibo accounts in February. In the middle of the year, we began to focus on one round after another, from the brokerage sector, the automobile industry chain to the Beijing Stock Exchange, and we were very busy. The Hong Raiders City Gate Standing Wood Battle Method has become a magic weapon for some Hong Fan families to fight a good round of battles.
The summary is to better look to the future.
In recent years, the world (including the United States, including China, including China, etc.) has been at its limit for many years, and it must always return to normal. After thinking about it for a long time, I have determined the four-word outlook for investment in 2024: return to common sense!
Returning to common sense is to follow the objective law of things, and common sense is the highest reasonableness and the most basic investment wisdom that I know as a writer.
Return to common sense, return to the essence of human nature, return to rational thinking, return to the original intention of Hong Raiders, believe that things must be reversed, and adhere to extreme transactions.
In 2024, return to common sense, seek truth from facts, and unite to look ahead to money.
Returning to common sense, how do we look at 2024 and how to seize the investment opportunities in 2024?
Common sense tells us that things must be reversed, and assets that are seriously undervalued after continuous ** will have a chance of valuation repair;
Common sense tells us that the continued high interest rates in the United States are unsustainable, the "siphoning" impact of overseas manufacturing in China and Chinese capital is unsustainable, and the high prosperity of the United States and its beneficiary countries, which are also affected by the epidemic, are unsustainable;
Common sense tells us that capital is the force that determines the general direction, and the great leap forward in financing for many years has caused excessive blood loss, and it is still losing blood, if there is no large incremental capital into the market, it is difficult to change the general trend;
Common sense tells us that in the face of great changes unseen in a century, how Sino-US frictions, the development of artificial intelligence, and the difficult transformation of China's economy (the knot of real estate is difficult to solve) will affect China's economy and China, which is very difficult to do, and there are too many variables;
Common sense tells us that A-share is a hunting ground, hunting opportunities can be seen everywhere, and event hunting is promising. The future is not clear, and good hunters like to go out hunting on foggy days;
The good news that can be seen in common sense includes: the return of overseas funds, China's RRR and interest rate cuts, and the introduction of an investment-side action plan;
Common sense can be expected to prevent systemic risks, and the space for A-share ** will be limited, especially when the decline is fast, the country will inevitably take action.
There are too many uncertainties in the future, it is difficult to **, the most measurable thing is that things must be reversed and some deterministic good news, which is common sense, and behind common sense is a definite opportunity.
Therefore, looking forward to 2024, before the naked eye can see a complete reversal of the capital level in the market, it is recommended to still focus on seizing trading opportunities. (We don't need to have many opportunities, two or three of the following examples are enough).
1. For example, the Beijing Stock Exchange has deterministic growth opportunities (according to one round at a time);
2. For example, medicine, new energy, liquor and China Special Valuation (China's advantages, core, characteristic assets) and other ......and other valuation repair transactional opportunities; ...... such as silver economy, artificial intelligence, smart cars, humanoid robots, metaverse, brokerages, etcWait to see the long and short direction, round by round, plate good opportunity;
3. Such as electricity, fertilizer and other ......and other sectors that benefit from price increases.
In short, there are more trading opportunities in 2024, and we need to dilute the index, and there will be excess returns if we do it according to one round of plates. If the capital begins to improve, you can appropriately extend the time period of operating a round of plates, of course, it is best to use the Hong Raiders to attack the city gate and stand up for the wood strategy, away from mediocrity and embrace the leading stocks of the leading sector, the success rate is higher and the income is greater.
Again, if you don't have a good round of plates you want to catch, and there is no wallet to pick up, you will leave the market and not trade, and spend time to strengthen the capital of the revolution.
Author: Hong Rong, a senior investment mentor in China, has been a well-known financial influencer on Weibo for 5 consecutive years, a wealth management expert, an MBA tutor of Shanghai Jiaotong University Advanced School of Finance, a member of the Pudong District CPPCC, a vice chairman of the Shanghai Pudong New Area Federation of Industry and Commerce, and the chairman of the Shanghai Pudong New Area Friendship Association. He used to be the executive president of Shanghai Great Wisdom Co., Ltd., the chairman and general manager of the star, the deputy director of the research institute, and the general manager of the company's asset management headquarters.