According to Defense News2, the Thai Air Force set out its future aspirations in a document released on February 29, in which anti-drone systems, new fighter jets and medium-range air defense systems are "the most urgent issues to be addressed." The report also mentioned that although the United States has a traditional advantage in the Thai team, it still needs to compete with Chinese products.
The author believes that the US media's statement is really covering up for the United States - the medium-range air defense missiles and anti-drone systems that Thailand urgently needs, and the United States can provide enough competitive products?
According to the report, the Thai Air Force detailed its procurement plan for the period up to 2037 in the 74-page ***. Among them, the United States has the greatest advantage in the modernization project of the F-16 fighter of the Thai Air Force. The Thai Air Force plans to procure 12-14 new fighters from 2025 to replace the F-16 fighters currently in service with the 102nd Squadron, which entered service in the late 80s and is scheduled to be retired in 2028. The current competition includes the F-16 Block 70 72 from the American company Lo Ma and the Gripen fighter jet from Saab. "We believe that the F-16 Block 70 72 will complement the Thai Air Force's existing F-16 fleet and provide the ability to meet Thailand's most pressing defense needs," a Lo Ma spokesperson said. ”
In addition, the Thai Air Force needs to procure 12-14 fighters from 2031 to 2035 to replace the old F-5E F fighters of the 211th Squadron, and from fiscal year 2037, the same number of fighters will be needed to replace the F-16A B fighters of the 403rd Squadron.
Countries currently bidding for these aircraft include the United States, China, Russia and India. Due to the extensive sanctions suffered by Russia after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the tragic battlefield losses of the Russian army, it may be difficult for Russia to provide a sufficient number of advanced fighters on time for a long time in the future; As for India, the only thing that can be used is the domestically produced "Brilliant" fighter jet, and I am afraid that Thailand will not be so visionless ......Therefore, in fact, the United States and China are participating in the bidding for the second and third batches of fighter jets in Thailand.
Pakistan's J-10C is said to have beaten Qatar's Typhoon fighter jet) Considering the Thai Air Force's desire for advanced fighters, the J-10C is undoubtedly one of the most likely and advanced models in China's fighter export list. Equipped with an active phased array radar and Thunderbolt-15E medium- and long-range air-to-air missiles, the fighter has demonstrated its powerful air supremacy through joint exercises conducted by the Pakistan Air Force and other countries. For example, in the confrontation with Qatar's "Typhoon" fighters, Pakistan's J-10C is said to have achieved an overwhelming 4:0 record in over-the-horizon combat.
In addition, the "Thunder" Block 3 fighter jointly developed by China and Pakistan, although slightly inferior to the J-10C in performance, is more friendly, and of course much lower than the American F-16 Block 70 72. This is an advantage that cannot be ignored for the Thai Air Force, which does not have much money.
The author has repeatedly stressed that in international arms transactions, performance and performance are only part of it, and international relations often play a greater role. Defense News said that although the Thai team has purchased main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and submarines from China in recent years, the United States still has a strong influence on the Thai Air Force. Greg Raymond, an expert on Asia-Pacific affairs at the Australian National University, said that the Thai Air Force attaches great importance to its alliance with the United States, "so it will not purchase Chinese fighter jets to avoid appearing that Thailand is too inclined to China".
But as the saying goes, "the situation is stronger than the people". Although the United States may be able to use its influence in the Thai Air Force to make it choose the US aircraft with both soft and hard measures. But in the field of medium-range anti-aircraft missiles and anti-drones, which Thailand desperately needs, the United States simply cannot come up with suitable products. According to the plan of the Thai Air Force, priority needs to be given to medium-range air defense systems with a range of more than 30 nautical miles (about 56 km) from fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2028, followed by the second phase of procurement of medium- and long-range air defense systems.
The performance of the NASAMS air defense system is really average) As we all know, the US military emphasizes the use of air to dominate the air and does not pay attention to the development of air defense systems. This has led to the fact that in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States is unable to provide the medium and long-range air defense systems that Ukraine desperately needs. At present, the medium-range air defense system that the US military barely meets the needs of the Thai Air Force is the NASAMS air defense system jointly developed by the United States and Norway, which is equipped with an AN MPQ-64F1 "Sentinel" radar with a maximum detection range of 120 kilometers. However, the missiles used in the system are AIM-120 air-to-air missiles launched from the ground and "extended-range Sea Sparrow" missiles that have been changed to active radar guidance, and their combat ranges are only 21 kilometers and 48 kilometers respectively, which is difficult to meet the range requirements of the Thai Air Force. In addition, the poor field mobility of the NASAMS air defense system has added to the inconvenience of use for Thailand, which has poor road facilities.
As for the expensive American-made Patriot series air defense and anti-missile system, whether it is too expensive ** or far beyond the required performance, it is determined that it is not in the procurement list of the Thai Air Force at all.
Pakistan's LY-80 medium-range anti-aircraft missile) As mentioned earlier, Russia, which was originally very competitive in the field of medium-range anti-aircraft missiles, can be basically excluded, so the only country in the world that can quickly provide such medium-range anti-aircraft missiles is China. From Hongqi 16, Hongqi 22 to Hongqi-9, the PLA has long been equipped with a system of interconnected short- and medium-range air defense missile systems, and their export models "LY-80", "FK-3" and "FD2000" have also gained a good reputation in Pakistan, Serbia, Morocco and other countries, which can fully meet the urgent needs of the Thai Air Force's current and next-stage air defense systems.
As for anti-drone systems, what the Thai Air Force needs is not a rudimentary individual anti-drone gun, but a system of anti-drone equipment. The most promising in this area is laser interception systems. Compared with the U.S. military's anti-drone system, which is still struggling to explore on the test ground, China's "Silent Hunter" laser** exported to Saudi Arabia has created a record of shooting down 13 incoming drones in a row in actual combat.
Therefore, from this point of view, only China can really meet the current urgent needs of the Thai Air Force. No matter how hard the United States tries, it cannot stop the reality that the distorted military industrial system of the United States has become increasingly difficult to provide high-quality and low-cost products.