Shrinkage adjustment, A shares do not change their rising expectations

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-03-07

As of Wednesday's deadline**, the Shanghai Composite Index was trading at 0The decline of 26 closed at 3039 points, and the trading volume for the whole day was 930 billion, a decrease of more than 130 billion from yesterday.

Judging from the MACD column at the daily level, the momentum is still weakening, but the momentum at the weekly level is increasing, and it is only short-lived, and it will continue to follow.

Today, in the absence of funds to actively protect the disk, the performance is significantly better than yesterday, with 3439 companies and 1740 companies throughout the day, with a rise and fall ratio of nearly 2 to 1, and the money-making effect in the market still exists.

However, the situation of the capital side is not optimistic, the northbound outflow today is close to 1.5 billion yuan, the net outflow of domestic funds is 8.1 billion, and the willingness of domestic funds to short is still very strong, but the outflow of large orders has decreased significantly compared with the previous two trading days, and the net outflow of the whole day is less than 2 billion.

Moreover, it is obvious from the curve of the net outflow of large domestic orders that the divergence of domestic funds is also serious. Some time ago, the capital curve was either a unilateral downward net outflow or a unilateral upward net inflow, so many situations with serious short divergences are helpful for the follow-up, and only when there is a divergence in funds can it continue to continue.

For the follow-up, my judgment is that it is still very likely to maintain the trend of ***, and even return to the top of the annual line.

There are several main forces:

1. After five consecutive days of trillion-level transactions, the capital turnover in the market has been sufficient, and the net outflow of funds in recent trading days has exceeded 100 billion, indicating that a large number of profit-making orders have reached the target and bid farewell to the market temporarily, and they are potential bullish forces.

2. In addition, there is an obvious bullish force that is also eyeing the short, and the increase of 400 points does not know how many people are stepping short, and there are still hundreds of billions of funds in the outside world waiting for **to come to a depth**.

3. The disk protection funds are not really powerful, from the entry of the disk protection funds to this **, the Shanghai Composite Index is only 100 points away from the annual line, and it can be broken through with a little effort. Before the annual line is really broken, this part of the funds will continue.

Moreover, if the village wants to really distort the confidence of the market, the Shanghai Composite Index needs to be maintained above the annual line for a long time to deep**, and this part of the funds will not give up if it does not achieve its goal.

4. Foreign funds, this is really foreign incremental funds, real smart money. Capital has always voted with its feet, and as expectations of a rate cut in the U.S. grow, the advantage of low valuations in the domestic market will be even more attractive. Even if foreign funds are just making a difference, they are also incremental funds for A-shares, which can enhance the trend of the market.

A recent Morgan report confirms this.

5. Bears are not shorts as imagined, bears can be long at any time. Market movements will force bears to go long.

However, now is far from the time for optimism, if you want to take a heavy position, it is better to wait for the Shanghai Composite Index to return to above the annual line.

In addition to the concept of new quality productivity in the main line, photovoltaic and wind power have begun a round of **.

Although, market rumors Musk believes that the lack of electricity in the future has led to these plates**; Investors still have to realize that a certain sector will not go unilaterally to the sky, and funds will not support it.

If you hold the first and photovoltaic sectors that have not risen sharply, you can continue to hold them.

Above. Hotspot Engine Program

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