At 9 o'clock in the morning of March 5, the second session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in the Great Hall of the People.
The report pointed out that this year's GDP growth target is set at about 5, and ten key tasks for 2024 are deployed. At the briefing on the interpretation of the "** work report" held by the State Council Information Office on March 5, Huang Shouhong, head of the drafting group of the "* work report" and director of the ** research office, pointed out that the main content of this year's "report", including the review of last year's work and the overall requirements, main expected goals, macro policy orientation, and key tasks of this year's work, were drafted in accordance with the spirit of the important speech delivered by the general secretary at last year's ** economic work conference. This year's "** Work Report" deployed 10 key tasks, nine of which are the key tasks deployed by the general secretary in his speech at the ** Economic Work Conference.
* Wang Yukai, a professor at the Party School (National Academy of Administration), believes that the report is quite profound in summing up last year's work and does not shy away from contradictions. In addition, the report is relatively comprehensive and complete in the deployment of the ten key tasks in 2024, with both goals and measures, and is relatively pragmatic.
On the whole, this year's work report is relatively thoughtful and solid for the implementation of the arrangement, full of dry goods, and the style is simple and clear. * Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center, told China News Weekly.
On March 5, the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photographer Han Haidan.
The GDP growth target is both positive and prudent.
During the two sessions of the National People's Congress, the GDP growth target set in the work report has always been the focus of attention of all parties.
For the GDP growth target of about 5, the report points out that it takes into account the needs of promoting employment and income, preventing and resolving risks, and is in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of basically realizing modernization, and also considers the economic growth potential and supporting conditions, reflecting the requirements of being proactive and promising.
In Zhang Liqun's view, the GDP growth target of around 5 is both positive and prudent.
He pointed out that the GDP growth target for 2023 is also set at around 5, but it is much more difficult to achieve 5 this year than in 2023, because the economic growth in 2023 is achieved on the basis of the previous year's economic growth3, the base is relatively low, and it is also because of the stable transition of epidemic prevention and control. But to achieve a growth of about 5 in 2024, it is to grow by 5 in 20232 is more difficult to complete, "so this goal is conducive to cohesion of all aspects of motivation, more positive."
As for the prudent aspect, Zhang Liqun said that China's economy actually has tremendous growth potential, and there are favorable conditions in many aspects, and if this year's work is done properly, the real economic growth should be higher than 5.
Yao Yang, a professor of economics at Peking University's National School of Development and director of the China Center for Economic Research, has higher expectations for GDP growth. He told China News Weekly that according to his calculations, China's current economy has 55 growth potential, as long as demand can go up, 5 GDP growth is not a problem. "There are still some people in society, including myself, who want the GDP growth target to be set a little higher. Now it seems that ** has taken a more cautious approach. ”
Zhang Liqun believes that the GDP growth target is set at about 5, which reflects the bottom-line thinking and fully takes into account the difficulties and challenges. As pointed out in the report, the momentum of world economic growth is insufficient, regional hotspot issues are frequent, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising. The foundation for China's sustained economic recovery is not solid, the effective demand is insufficient, some industries have overcapacity, social expectations are weak, there are still many risks and hidden dangers, there are blockages in the domestic cycle, and there are interferences in the international cycle.
Zhang Liqun further pointed out that the external environment has become more severe and complex this year. Domestically, the deep-seated contradictions that have accumulated over a long period of time are showing at an accelerated pace, especially the problem of insufficient demand, which is still very prominent, so we must also fully estimate the difficulties and challenges.
How to achieve economic growth expectations?
A number of experts pointed out that a lot of effort is needed to achieve the GDP growth target of about 5 in 2024. The report requires that in 2024, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking". Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University, believes that the important way to achieve "promoting stability through progress" is to do more addition and less subtraction, and the ten key tasks deployed in the report in 2024 are to focus on the "addition" in economic work.
Vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and speeding up the development of new quality productive forces" was put into the first of the 10 key tasks. Dong Yu believes that the new quality of productivity is the biggest "addition" in the construction of the modern industrial system.
Dong Yu said, "The foundation of economic development is industry, and what kind of industry we build determines whether we can achieve the goal of economic development." He said that in essence, the modern industrial system is actually a requirement for high-quality development of the industry, that is, the overall industrial level must be upgraded and upgraded. The implementation of the requirements of the modern industrial system, the first has been clear path, that is, to accelerate the cultivation of new quality productivity.
In the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference, "insufficient effective demand" was placed at the top of the difficulties and challenges that need to be overcome. Among the 10 key tasks deployed in the report, "focusing on expanding domestic demand" is also emphasized.
On March 5, the State Council Information Office held a briefing on the interpretation of the "** work report", Huang Shouhong, head of the drafting team of the "* work report" and director of the ** research office, said that domestic demand has always been the main driving force for China's economic development, and the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth in these years has exceeded 90.
Zhang Liqun believes that from the perspective of expanding domestic demand, the most important thing is to give full play to the key role of investment, especially to give full play to the leading role and amplification effect of investment.
On the one hand, effective investment can increase jobs and form a very important support for employment. On the other hand, effective investment leads to a supply of high-quality products, which in fact supports sustainable consumption. Zhang Liqun added that from the point of view, to play a good role in investment, we should focus on the country's modern infrastructure system to achieve a new leap from "have" to "good".
The report pointed out that from this year, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be continuously issued for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year. Zhang Liqun believes that this shows that the capital arrangement of the first investment is significantly increased, and it is necessary to make the first investment significantly strengthened through such a measure, and the starting role of expanding demand will be released as soon as possible, so as to drive the production and investment of enterprises to pick up significantly, drive employment to improve significantly, and drive residents to consume significantly.
Therefore, the expansion of domestic demand is actually around the first investment to press the start button, and gradually through the chain of each link, the industrial chain to drive the full recovery of domestic demand. Zhang Liqun also said that it takes time to expand domestic demand from implementation to results, and it is not easy.
Dong Yu believes that one of the starting points for expanding domestic demand is to stimulate potential consumption and form a virtuous circle in which effective investment and new consumption investment promote each other.
In terms of fees, the fourth meeting of the ** Financial and Economic Committee held recently emphasized the need to play a good policy combination, and proposed to encourage and guide the renewal of new large-scale equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods. In the deployment of the task of "focusing on expanding domestic demand", the report also pointed out that it is necessary to encourage and promote the trade-in of consumer goods. Wang Yukai believes that for measures to promote consumption, such as exchanging old for new consumer goods, it is necessary to implement the policy and have more detailed policy details.
Wang Yukai further said that the weak consumption expectation is now a key issue in economic and social development, "if there is no consumption, overcapacity, enterprises will have no way to expand production, shrinking after the people's income declines, it will fall into a vicious circle, deflation is in this vicious circle."
He believes that in order to prevent deflation, one way to do this is to solve the employment problem of the common people. Therefore, the role of the private economy is particularly important, because the private economy contributes more than 80 percent of urban labor employment.
To promote the development of the private economy, it is not only necessary to introduce policies to promote the private economy, but also to have continuity in the policies, so that private enterprises can have confidence. Wang Yukai said.
How to prevent and mitigate risks?
Zhang Liqun pointed out that preventing and defusing risks is a very important task at present. The report focuses on the need to better coordinate development and security, and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas.
On the one hand, some places have more debts and are under greater pressure to repay debts; On the other hand, land revenues have decreased in some places. Wang Yukai believes that the local ** should live a "tight life". Yao Yang also believes that the report still adopts a more cautious attitude towards local ** expenditures and controls the expansion of local ** debt, which is consistent.
However, in Zhang Liqun's view, now is also the window period for improving the risk prevention and control mechanism.
The report pointed out that it is necessary to address both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Dong Yu said that the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference proposed to solve the risks of real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions in an overall manner. The reason why we emphasize the need to resolve risks from the real estate sector is that if we can stabilize the real estate market, we will actually gain more time and space for resolving local debt and financial risks.
Yao Yang believes that in the real estate sector, there are still many policy tools that can be used, "on the demand side, interest rate cuts, lower interest rates will help, and purchase restrictions should be lifted more comprehensively." He also suggested abolishing the pre-sale system and "taking this opportunity to introduce corresponding policies and reassure the people."
It is worth noting that the report also proposes to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, improve the basic system related to commercial housing, and meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified and improved housing.
Zhang Liqun said that the new real estate model and the new urbanization are considered together, "standing at a higher level".
Because the development of real estate and urbanization are closely related, the process of urbanization will form the demand for housing, and urbanization will also expand the development space of real estate, because with the expansion of the built-up area of the city, the space for building houses and land is expanding. Zhang Liqun pointed out that on this basis, it can be seen that one of the main reasons for the high pressure on housing prices and people to buy houses is the unbalanced promotion of urbanization, the limited number of large cities, and the prominent contradiction between more people and less housing; The new urbanization emphasizes the integrated development of large, medium and small cities, and makes up for the shortcomings of small and medium-sized cities in infrastructure and public services, so that the attractiveness of small and medium-sized cities to enterprises and the concentration of popularity are improved. Gradually, large, medium and small cities will be able to form a reasonable division of labor, which will significantly increase the carrying capacity of urban agglomerations. In this way, the pressure on housing prices** can be alleviated.
In the future, as the economy continues to rebound and young people's ability to buy houses continues to recover, real estate will gradually enter the recovery stage, and then combined with the acceleration of new urbanization, I think a new model of stable and healthy development of real estate will be established. Zhang Liqun said.
Reporter: Zhang Xinyu.
Xie Xuewei.