The main line of the market is very clear, science and technology is the primary productive force, and technology stocks lead the rise of A-shares.
Many people are ridiculing A-shares as pseudo-technology and fake innovation, and I don't think there's any need to be presumptuous. Looking at the semiconductor article written by an American think tank, people are more confident than we are. There is a gap in domestic computing power, but Huawei is still barely able to use it, and it is still improvingRegarded as the strongest competitor by NVIDIA; In terms of large models, there are SORA and OpenAI abroad, but there is not such a big gap in China. Ali's Tusheng ** model emo is also very strong, directly **generating speaking and singing**, which is vivid. Kimi Chat on the dark side of the moon, which I used to extract meeting minutes, had a pretty good experience. Lianhui Technology, which is led by China Mobile, is not weak to be honest. The pattern is open, more inclusive, and the first thing to invest in technology stocks is to always be optimistic.
Back to the topic, the AI company we want to talk about today is central control technology. Return on investmentIt is only a personal daily investment research analysis and does not constitute any advice. 
The estimated revenue in 23 years is 796-92.800 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%-40%; Net profit was 10-11500 million, a year-on-year increase of 25%-44%., deducting non-net profit of 84-9.700 million, a year-on-year increase of 23%-42%.
According to the company's latest research, the revenue guidance for 2023 is around 30%, and the 2023 revenue is 86200 million, a year-on-year increase of 30%.Net profit was 107.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and non-net profit was 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
The follow-up performance report came out, which was basically slightly better than expected.
At first glance, the company's performance in all aspects is not bad, but the stock price has fallen numb for two reasons:
One is that the valuation was too high when it was listed at the end of 2020, as high as more than 100 times PE.
I generally don't look at A-share IPOs for less than 3 years, because either the performance is adjusted, or the valuation is too high and has no investment value.
The performance growth rate of ZKTeco in the past three years is still very good, with revenue soaring from 3.1 billion to 8.6 billion, a compound growth rate of over 30%, and net profit growing from 300 million to 1 billion, so the past three years are purely digesting the exorbitant valuation.
Why is the return on A-share investment so poor?
Because the listing price is too high, the performance of three or five years is often overdrawn, which is still in the background of the continuous high growth of the company's performance; If the performance takes a big bath, the stock price decline will be even more terrifying.
One is that the performance in the second quarter has been thunderous.
From the perspective of revenue, central control technology is still growing at a high rate.
The industry has expanded from the traditional petrochemical business to other industries (new energy, etc.);
The products have also been expanded to various enterprise informatization and PLC;
The business has shifted from domestic substitution to globalization, and actively deployed business in the Middle East and Southeast Asia;
The ceiling of the company is still very high.
However, the exchange income of up to 200 million yuan in the second quarter of 23, after deducting this impact, the performance fell sharply, and the poor market environment + high valuation was superimposed, and the stock price was further **.
After deducting the non-net profit of 100 million yuan for the whole year, the real performance was 800 million, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the revenue and profit were basically compounded by expectations, corresponding to the valuation of around 40 times in 2023.
This year's performance of 1 billion should not be a big problem, and the dynamic valuation is 33 times PE, and the valuation is more reasonable.
Risk Points:The traditional petrochemical industry accounts for more than 50% of the businessIn the past two years, the macro economy has been bad, the industry itself has cycled, and the speed of capacity expansion has declined, and the market is worried that it will affect the company's fundamentals.
2. The ban on shares of listed companies began to be lifted in November 23.
Opportunity points: 1. Basic disk: the domestic substitution rate of DCS business is 50%, and the central control technology accounts for 367%, the future market share target is 50%, and there is room for improvement of 1%-3% per year.
Overseas business: 200 people at present, and will expand to 1,000 people in the future, one of the biggest growth points.
In 23 years, the order is 1 billion, the growth rate has doubled, and the target for 24 years is 15-2 billion
According to the company's delivery cycle from September to December, orders are a forward-looking indicator of the company's performance.
3. New direction: the proportion of battery, metallurgy, food and medicine industries is increasing, accounting for about 20% at present.
4. PLC: Small PLCs will have 7-800 million orders in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 40%-50%, and medium and large PLCs are also actively deployed, with a lot of room for growth.
In short, in January, sort it out,The company's overseas business is a major growth pointThe industrial software track is still a long slope and thick snow, and the company's fundamentals are also very good, the only concern is that the valuation is high and there is no big margin of safety.
A good company needs to be good, otherwise it is often a miserable investment. Good ** is to come out, wait for it to come out, and boil it out.
Fortunately, in January, the market was full of mud and sand, and the company's market value once plummeted to around 28 billion market value, with a static valuation of less than 30 times PE, and a high margin of safety.
This opportunity for stock price movements to completely diverge from performance trends often occurs at the bottom of a bear market.
As I said earlier, as long as there is performance, it is a good thing that the stock price is over-falling, and the recovery is rapid.
In February, the bottom of the stock price of ZKTeco was close to 40%, and the current market value has reached 38.1 billion, next week will start to hit 40 billion.
Special reminder: The above is only a personal investment research reflection and record, and does not constitute any investment advice!
* It's getting better, I hope you can actively like and support Ye Qiu,If there are more than 200 likes, I will add an AI company whose stock price is still at the bottom over the weekend. Walk by,Thumbs upI'm looking at Ye Qiu。Your presence is the source of my sharing and creation, thank you