A new literature review on global climate change, written by an international team of more than 200 researchers, leaves no doubt about it: humanity is heading for catastrophe unless significant steps are taken to change the course.
How catastrophic is it? The research team mentioned that global warming is causing trillions of dollars in damage, with billions of people trapped and millions killed.
The report pays particular attention to tipping points – sudden, large-scale changes in ecological conditions caused by the peak of smaller environmental changes. These catastrophic changes include widespread destruction of coral reefs and the collapse of the largest ice sheets, each of which leads to more widespread destruction.
The report identifies a number of interactions between the major global detonating factors and finds that most of them have destabilizing effects. Some ecosystems on the brink of major change, such as Greenland's ice sheet, have such low tilt thresholds that they may be seen as instigators of a global chain reaction that causes other systems to collapse.
Caroline Lear, a geoscientist at Cardiff University in the UK, said: "Our research shows that in the past, even small natural variations in greenhouse gas concentrations have had a domino effect on different parts of our planet, from sea level to entire ecosystems. ”。
Without more significant climate action, we expect the greenhouse gas concentrations from burning fossil fuels to change more quickly, creating a similar domino effect. ”
Researchers warn of catastrophic loss of crop planting capacity, with global wheat and corn acreage likely halved and "the stability of our societies" at risk. These processes are already well underway, with more than 27 million children going hungry due to extreme weather in 2022 alone.
However, our fate is not entirely sealed. The researchers call for a coordinated global policy effort to limit negative thresholds and promote a more sustainable approach to life on Earth, one that can generate its own set of societal tipping points, creating stronger ecosystems.
For example, fossil fuels should be phased out by 2050 and incentives should be created to continue developing renewable energy infrastructure, the report says.
Not all tipping points are bad," said Stephen Barker, a geoscientist from Cardiff University. "If we make smart decisions now, they will help steer us in the right direction. ”
For example, developing a national strategy for solar power generation and storage will encourage investment in increasing capacity and ultimately reducing costs, resulting in more renewable energy. ”
This is just the latest in a series of warnings from scientists that climate change will dramatically alter life on Earth. Despite the gloomy outlook, greenhouse gas emissions remain at an all-time high.
Business as usual "is now over," the report said. If we're to avoid being submerged and stop the natural world from falling apart, we need to take action that really makes sense – one that researchers believe humans are capable of.
This report contains a message of hope," Lear said.
Climate-friendly and equitable policies can kick-start a range of activities that help us avoid the worst impacts of climate change while helping the global community. ”
You can find the full text of the Global Tipping Point Report online, some of which have been published in Earth System Dynamics.