WeChat*** Love Thinking Grapefruit (ID: icetea375M), Author: Peng Cheng, Original title: "Looking for Investment Opportunities in Domestic Macro Changes", the header picture comes from: Visual China macro news is always constant, such as the central bank's interest rate cut and water release, financial bond issuance, etc. It's hard to read, and I don't know what to do with it after reading it. But the best policies have to fall on GDP growth - GDP growth comes from the three sectors of consumption, import and export, and investment, and it is enough to understand the macroeconomy by analyzing the changes in these three areas.
GDP growth is supported by people's consumption, in the past, the United States and Europe bought our goods, in recent years Chinese can afford to buy their own things, but also buy foreign goods, such as Russian beauties on Douyin. This makes the consumption contribution to the growth of domestic GDP higher and higher, and the growth of imports is faster than that of exports, net exports = export growth - import growth, resulting in a negative net export contribution.
When the economy is bad, consumers have no money in their pockets, and no one buys the goods produced, so they can only reduce prices, salaries, and costs. As a result, no one bought anything, and finally triggered a wave of layoffs, bankruptcies, and the economy stopped working. The consequence of the direct fall of the world economy to the ground was the direct trigger for the Second World War. Therefore, in 2008, China and the West all ran out to spend money to save the market, and this kind of hedge against the economic downturn is investment.
Below, we break down and analyze the policy changes in consumption, net exports, and investment in recent years, and the impact on investment.
1. Consumption: Increase consumption capacity, but do not encourage consumer enterprises to go public.
Consumption is now the most important driver of domestic demand growth. After several waves of stimulus for real estate, home appliances to the countryside and new energy vehicles, as well as the impact of the epidemic, the focus of policy has shifted from residents borrowing money to consume to removing consumption pressure and increasing the future population.
The action is also multi-pronged, and everyone has a perception. One is to remove the three mountains (housing, health care and education), and the second is to control inflation, which is only 0 in the context of high global inflation in 20232%。The third is to vigorously crack down on illegal fund-raising, fraud, monopoly, and other behaviors that dig out wallets.
From an investment perspective, most consumer companies (non-production) are listed in Hong Kong. Judging from the tax system and IPO review, it is not easy for service and chain consumer companies to be listed on the A-share market. In fact, it is not very conducive to A-share consumer investment, there are too few choices, and the long-term high premium can only be picked up + held for a long time.
2. Exports: Supporting the technology-based manufacturing industry.
As the world's factory, China provides goods for both the world and domestic needs, the former is called export, and the latter is called domestic demand. The demand is constantly changing, and the industry is constantly adjusted and supported. In the past, clothing, furniture, and home appliances (an increase of 99%), and now photovoltaics, batteries and trams (29.29 in 2023.)9%), the future is AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing, which are the focus of current domestic policies, and AI is the most eye-catching at present.
China's industrial support policy is to catch up with the last, rather than innovate and surpass. After all, the United States will account for 40% of the R&D investment of 2,500 top companies in 20232%, China 179%, EU 176. Japan 104%。
Domestic support for an industry is generally divided into several steps: developing demand, stimulating supporting industries, and cultivating talents. Take new energy vehicles and chips as examples.
China's auto market has changed technology to meet the needs of domestic consumers to buy automobiles, and the proportion of localized parts of joint venture car companies has been required to drive the domestic automobile supporting industry chain, and local factories have cultivated talents at all levels. When the wave of tram technology comes, it can surpass Japan and Germany smoothly.
Chips are localization requirements to create demand for domestic products, lead chip manufacturing and production, pull equipment and other supporting industries, and introduce and cultivate local talents. Since 2016, relatively simple storage and memory have been able to replace foreign countries, while more complex AI chips are still catching up. Mainly subject to the software framework binding of large models, the existing domestic AI chips can only be used for inference, but not for large model training.
The changes in core industries determine the hot sectors for investment.
In terms of policy, A-shares are to set a high premium for the core industries in the future to guide the tilt of market resources. The valuation of domestic AI listed companies is 100 times, and it is easier to raise funds without listed peers, and it is also easy to issue options to recruit talents. Therefore, the high premium of AI and Huawei concepts is basically supported by macro policies.
Wall Street, the U.S. model, has made a lot of money, and the market value of FAMGA has repeatedly broken new highs, but the loss of physical manufacturing is serious. China's support for the core manufacturing industry should move from virtual to real, which means that the policy will not make too much money in the pure financial field, otherwise who will work hard to force the industry. Therefore, Bitcoin is banned in China, and ETFs have begun in the US stocks, and mainstream funds can buy them.
3. Investment: No longer rely on real estate investment.
The country's largest investments in the past have been in real estate and large infrastructure. The model of real estate is to spend money on land acquisition - real estate enterprise development - consumers buy houses with bank loans. But consumers' wallets are limited, and if they spend too much money to buy a house and repay a loan, they have no money to spend. This is where this pattern has to be interrupted. At this time, it is necessary to ensure that the interests of multiple parties are not damaged, the houses bought by consumers are not unfinished (guaranteed delivery), bank loans do not become bad debts (three red lines), and local ** has other income instead of land purchase income (special bonds).
The implementation of this set of policies has reshaped the entire financial and local ** system (supplement: the policies of China and the United States are very similar, in 2008, the United States established the Federal Housing Finance Bureau to take over Fannie Mae Freddie Mac, and the financial system will not collapse, and the rest of the people, enterprises and local ** will bear the responsibility).
Capital flow overhauled. The new funding path is from resident deposits - banks - treasury bonds - **special bonds - localities**, and before that it was residents - fancy financial products - real estate urban investment.
Tightening of financial regulation. In the era of real estate-led investment, financial regulation is guided by relaxation, and in order to control real estate, the entire financial supervision has become increasingly strict. Anti-corruption is also one of the regulatory tools.
For Hong Kong stocks, which are mainly real estate and finance, the industry risks caused by the policy will become larger, and the valuation center will be lowered. Therefore, the overall valuation of 10x now looks like the bottom in previous years, but it may still fall.
Finally, don't think about buying a house in China, the clearing of production capacity does not mean that the first will rise; Investment in A-shares must be the core industry in the future; Those who have money abroad, those who are radical can play virtual currency, those who are balanced can buy AI, and those who are conservative can buy Hong Kong stock consumer companies.
WeChat***Love Thinking Grapefruit (ID: icetea375M), Author: Peng Cheng This content is the author's independent point of view and does not represent the position of Tiger Sniff. Do not do without permission**, please contact hezuo@huxiu for authorizationcom
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