First of all, all the following remarks are only my inferences about the direction of future events that I have pieced together based on some circumstantial evidence, and do not mean that the outcome of the matter will definitely follow the plan in this article.
If there is any similarity, it means that my fortune telling is more accurate.
In fact, in recent times, the mentality of many investors has almost collapsed, mainly because there is really no news worth paying attention to in the market.
Neither good news nor bad news.
I have also written some views on the news vacuum period before, in fact, it is very simple, at this stage, if you make an announcement twice in three days, it is the most feared thing as an investor.
Especially the kind of announcement of what I did today, what I'm going to do tomorrow.
He may tell you the progress of his actions, but he won't tell you the results of those actions.
He may tell you about my attitude, but he won't tell you how that attitude affects the course of events.
Does attitude matter? Significant.
But more importantly, you have to understand what is the real logic of the people and actions of this matter?
Just like whether it is a headache, brain fever, or a sore waist and knees, you have to admit that you are sick before you go to the hospital to seek help from a doctor.
If you think you're possessed by something dirty, you'll probably go to a certain immortal and sing you a song called "Backing Tune" and then drink half a bowl of runic water and wait for illness.
Maybe in the future, these symptoms may disappear, but have you ever thought that maybe you will actually heal yourself without drinking that bowl of rune water?
Therefore, in my opinion, an announcement without actual data and content will not only not help to deal with the incident, but will expose the weakness of the matter itself.
Although this kind of behavior will make many investors feel that the government has taken a very responsible attitude and will feel some peace of mind about it.
But once you think about it the other way around, this may not be the case.
If you have worked in management, you will know that when an enterprise begins to pay attention to attendance and clothing, the eight achievements of the enterprise will fall into the trap of bureaucracy.
After all, when you have the ability to do performance, who will have nothing to do with those vain things?
The premise of retreat must be pragmatic.
The fact that the farmer is good-looking does not mean that there is more food.
So I've been emphasizing a point that when judging how things are going, the most important thing is to see what he did.
What kind of connotation is hidden behind these things?
Seeing this, it is estimated that many friends have said that there are only one or two news that ZR can be confirmed so far, and it seems that there is no content, how to judge the future trend in such a news environment?
In fact, to read a message, you have to combine many other elements, for example, there are a few news that I think are worth paying attention to recently, and I can briefly say how I think about looking at these messages.
The first is the possibility that Zhongrong will open a free resignation channel in the near future.
Although this incident has been portrayed on the Internet by some ill-intentioned bloggers as a large-scale layoff of Zhongrong, it is essentially allowing some employees who want to leave to leave.
And the specific cause and effect of this matter, I have also explained in the previous article, there is no call for the overall business model of the trust industry in the future, and there are not so many people starting from the actual business.
In the future, Zhongrong will definitely lay off employees, but the layoffs are not to save costs, but to adapt to the overall business development in the future.
In other words, before laying off employees, we must first deal with the current problems, at least until the payment plan is implemented.
So the essence of this matter is to "let you go" rather than "let you go".
Then since it is a reason to "let you go", it must let you go again.
I guess there are probably two points.
The first is the issue of cost.
The cost referred to here is not the cost of not paying the monthly salary to the employee, but in the case of mass layoffs, according to the provisions of the labor law, "n+1" compensation is indispensable, and this amount is linked to the average income of the employee last year.
So the problem is, even if the employees only get the basic salary in the last four months of last year, but the first eight months have commission income, once it is "n+1", this money is not a small number.
Therefore, the money can basically be saved by opening the employee exit channel.
Second, the matter may soon be in sight.
Friends who are familiar with my article may know that rumors about the possibility of opening employee channels after the Spring Festival have been around since the end of '23 at the earliest.
At that time, I was skeptical of such rumors, but now that I have received preliminary confirmation, it shows that this incident is not a temporary idea, but a long-planned personnel arrangement.
So since it has been planned for a long time, does it also mean that the progress of the Zhongrong incident has entered the next stage?
After all, it is extremely unwise to allow employees to leave in large numbers when the future business route is not completely determined, both in terms of reality and future development.
But the reality is that if the resignation channel is opened, there will be corresponding news to hedge the impact of employee resignation in the society, so what is this news?
Let's move on to the next message.
The second piece of news is that the three institutes have basically completed their work and may be leaving in the near future.
I don't comment on the extent to which this is true.
But what does it mean if the three institutes do want to leave?
In fact, as I said in the article before, in my personal opinion, I think Sansho is more like a way to reasonably delay time.
After all, when the second letter was launched, the overview of the entire ZR trust should have been very clear and clear, and the third office should do some work to check and fill in the gaps.
And don't you think it's a little scary that the work of the three institutes is progressing fast? Although it is rumored that they have not rested during the New Year, and they have begun to work on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, but considering that they only have a relatively clear entry news at the beginning of the month, this speed is also unprecedentedly fast.
Combined with the above two edge messages, we can see that the speed of handling the entire incident is concentrated at a point in time, that is, after the two sessions.
I judge that the two sessions are likely to produce some major benefits on asset disposal, and if it can be confirmed, then the final disposal plan of the Zhongrong issue may soon be unveiled.