The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history and is the focus of the world's attention. Everyone is curious whether the Russian army will be able to win this war.
At the beginning, Russia invested nearly 200,000 troops, with more than 100 battalions as units, with the help of tanks and military helicopters, to launch a fierce assault on Ukraine. Many believe that Russian pressure will cause Ukraine to fall apart quickly.
However, this is not true. Russia failed to complete the battle at the outset and took full control of all areas east of the Dnieper in the ensuing offensive, and instead, Ukraine regained part of its land.
At the same time, Russia's situation in the world has also been greatly affected, not only has relations with Europe and the United States and other European and American countries reached a deadlock, but also with the support of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and other major powers, Russia's position in the world has also been greatly weakened.
In addition, Russia has been unable to use the US dollar settlement system due to severe sanctions, and many multinational companies have terminated their cooperation with Russia. At one point, Russia put pressure on Europe, but it did not have the desired effect.
At present, although Russia has resisted the Ukrainian counterattack launched in the summer of 2022, the situation is still not optimistic. Ukraine has received enormous military aid from the West, and Russia's economic power is such that if it does not do something, it is very likely to fail.
If Russia does not succeed, then China must immediately take two actions against Russia, which is a long-term interest for both Russia and China.
The first is to enable Russia to continue to export goods. In the event of Russia's defeat, China will have to ensure that Russia's share of the world market for the export of goods will not fall. This is critical for China's imports of goods.
China is rich in natural resources, but it is not rich, and it must rely on huge foreign goods to support China's economy and livelihood.
In terms of food, China, despite its high level of production, still has a considerable gap due to its large population base. China is not only able to meet its own needs to a large extent, but also imports a lot of oil, grain, wheat, cotton, pigs, and so on from abroad. In addition, China also relies heavily on foreign sources for raw materials for feed and fertilizer, which are important components of agricultural products.
China is heavily dependent on foreign products for energy. For example, in 2022, China's imports from Mongolia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Australia, and other countries reached 290 million tons. China's locally stockpiled coal mines are struggling to keep up with the market.
In the same year, China imported 10 trillion cubic meters of natural gas from Turkmenistan, Russia and other countries, including 365 billion cubic meters of pipelines. LNG imports from Australia, Qatar and Malaysia have reached 63.44 million cubic meters. China's own reserves are only 177200 million cubic meters, there is still a long way to go to meet the demand.
In China, more than 510 million tons of ** products were imported from Middle Eastern countries and Russia last year. China's reserves are only 920 million barrels, compared to 14 million barrels. It is clear that China has a strong demand for oil from other regions.
In other important strategic energy sectors, China also relies mainly on foreign minerals, such as iron ore, copper, manganese, nickel, etc. In addition, there is a similar situation in China in some mid-to-high-end pharmaceuticals, test instruments, and electronic products.
All in all, China's food, energy, minerals, and mid-to-high-end technologies are inseparable from foreign markets. And a considerable number of them are pulled from Europe and the United States or the United States. Most of the goods imported into China are transported by sea.
However, there is no doubt that the most important shipping routes in the world today are in the hands of the United States and its allies.
With military bases around the world, deep maritime power, and military alliances, the United States is in principle fully capable of controlling many important shipping lanes, such as Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal.
China has always adopted a strategy of defense, and its naval and air forces are mainly focused on defending the country.
If the United States interferes with China's shipping routes, then China will have a shortage of supplies.
Therefore, China is eager to establish a stable and strategically important transportation corridor for goods in the event of a disruption of the shipping route. And Russia, on the other hand, is undoubtedly the most suitable candidate.
As the world's largest grain exporter, Russia's wheat, sunflower, sugar beet and other crops are the world's first, and buying grain from Russia can alleviate the huge pressure on Russia's sea transportation. In addition, pork, beef and other products imported from Russia can also meet the needs of the Chinese market to a certain extent.
Whether it is minerals or energy, Russia has a large number of deposits of oil and gas, coal, iron and other metals, which are enough to make China crazy. The long land border between China and Russia is not as easily cut by the West as the maritime border. Because, in order to cut off such a vast line of communication, it is necessary to have sufficient strength to send the army directly into the northwest of China.
In addition, China can also maintain a stable land transportation route with Central Asia and the Middle East through Russia, so that China can more easily obtain resources from Central Asia and the Middle East.
The second is to maintain political stability in Russia. If Russia loses this battle, China will do everything it can to maintain Russia's political stability. This has a bearing on the security of northern China and even Asia.
Siberia and Russia's Eastern Far East, due to their sparsely populated territory, slow development, weak infrastructure, and mixed ethnicity, rely on financial assistance from Moscow. As soon as there is turmoil in Moscow and it is not possible to lend a helping hand to those places, there will be a major crisis in those places. Criminal activities and extremists have a high probability of growing and posing a danger to neighbouring countries.
Historically, after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, many ethnic contradictions and civil wars broke out between the former member countries and local **. The conflict between Chechnya, Tajikistan, and even Russia and Ukraine actually led to the current situation because of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
If the Russian Federation is thrown into chaos as a result, I fear that similar tragedies will happen again.
In addition, Russia has a large arsenal of arms, the most threatening of which is nuclear. If the situation in Russia remains stable, it can be effectively controlled. If Russia is plunged into chaos, then this ** will be leaked out and into the hands of illegals, bringing great harm to the whole world.
To this end, China should maintain the security and security of the Russian region as much as possible from its own perspective and comprehensively balance the interests of all parties.
In fact, China's actions are not contrary to their basic interests. Even the United States and its allies do not want a head-on conflict with Russia, on the contrary, they prefer to use a ** against Ukraine. They all know very well that once war breaks out, it will be a huge variable for the world.
In terms of Russia's political stability, the West also does not want Russia to become a fragmented, volatile mess.
At the end of the day, a disorganized Russia is the same for the West. Russian crimes and extremists have the potential to export them to the West, and the loss of control will also pose a threat to the West. Therefore, even if Russia fails, the Western world will not overly suppress Russia and undermine its full power.
In short, in order to ensure Russia's security and materials, in the event of Russia's defeat, China must immediately maintain its political stability in the surrounding region and ensure that it is a major exporter of primary products, which is very beneficial to China's national interests.