Reduced by 534550,000 people! Shut down the tide, speed up**.
On February 29, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2023 Statistical Communiqué on the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China, which released the GDP and resident population data that we have long known.
In 2023, the national GDP is 126058.2 billion yuan, an increase of 52%。
At the end of 2023, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government and military personnel on active duty, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners residing in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) 140967 million, a decrease of 2.08 million from the end of the previous year.
Last month, the journal analysed the data. In this article, we will focus on another piece of data, which is kindergarten attendance.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) shows:
In 2023, the number of children enrolled in pre-primary education is 40.93 million.
Compared to 2022, this number is 534550,000 people!
Data: National Bureau of Statistics.
Historical data shows that kindergarten enrollment peaked in 2020 and that enrollment in 2021 decreased by 13 percent from the previous year060,000 people, the first decrease in kindergarten enrollment in many years.
In 2022, the number of kindergartens accelerated to a decrease of 177660,000 people. The accelerated decline in enrolment triggered the first reduction in the number of kindergartens.
According to data released by the Ministry of Education, in 2022, there were 28920,000 kindergartens, 5,610 fewer than the previous year.
Now, in 2023, the reduction in kindergarten enrollment will expand to 534550,000 people, and although the Ministry of Education has not yet released the number of kindergartens last year, the wave of kindergarten closures is expected to accelerate.
This wave of closures can be felt by everyone. When I went home for the Chinese New Year this year, many kindergartens in the countryside were closed. In the past, there were several kindergartens in a town, but now there is basically only one kindergarten left in a town.
Behind the decline in the number of kindergartens and the acceleration of kindergarten closures is the result of a record number of new students.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NSO), the national newborn population will reach 9.02 million in 2023, 540,000 fewer than in 2022.
Data: National Bureau of Statistics.
The continued decline in the number of newborns has two immediate consequences:
First, population deflation is accelerating.
The number of births continues to be lower than the number of deaths. Last year, 11.1 million people died nationwide. This led to an accelerated reduction in the country's population, with a decrease of 2.08 million people.
Secondly, the number of kindergartens and kindergartens is decreasing.
The impact also extends to primary schools.
Over the past two decades, the total number of primary schools has been declining due to the closure and consolidation of a large number of primary schools in rural areas due to urbanization.
Data: Ministry of Education.
However, the situation in 2021 is completely different than before. In 2022, not only did the number of elementary schools decrease, but also the number of students enrolled and enrolled in school decreased at the same time, which is unprecedented.
According to the Ministry of Education, in 2022, the number of primary school students enrolled in the country will reach 1,701390,000, a decrease of 81190,000 people, a decrease of 455%；Current students will reach 10.7 billion people, a decrease of 47880,000 people, a decrease of 044%。
This means that the pace of primary school closures will accelerate and enter a new phase.
The Ministry of Education has not yet released the number of primary school students, the number of schools, and the number of students enrolled in school in 2023.
In fact, the results are predictable, and with significant demographic changes, the impact on elementary schools is only a matter of time.
Over time, the second wave of effects will shift to primary, secondary and even tertiary education.
Based on this calculation, the impact of the reduction in newborns in secondary schools will occur in 2034.
The number of people taking the national college entrance examination in 2023 reached a record 12.91 million.
Data: Ministry of Education.
The number of people who took the GCSE exam in 2023 is equivalent to the number of people born around 2005.
As can be seen from the birth data in the chart above, the national newborn population was 16.17 million in 2005, and this number has remained so far, after which the number of births decreased slightly, below 16 million, in 2012 it surpassed 2005 again, and in 2016 it reached a new high in nearly two decades.
Therefore, in terms of the number of births, the number of households in the future will continue to break above the horizon, expected to peak in 2034, and then turn around as the number of newborns continues to decline after 2016.
The impact on universities will also be felt years later. In fact, in Japan and South Korea, where pedophilia has long been prevalent, a wave of university closures has already begun.
Not so long ago, this news was reported by Japan**:
In Japan, Nara Saho Junior College, Yubu Junior College, Fukuoka Women's Junior College, Mukogawa Women's University Junior College, Mimasaka University Junior College, and Suzuka University Junior College have announced that they will stop recruiting students in December.
In addition, Kyosen Women's Junior College, Kobe Starfish Women's Junior College, Sophia University Junior College, Ryudanagi University Junior College, Kyoto Ikebukuro Junior College, and Shimogyo Ward Junior College have also publicly announced that they will stop recruiting students.
At least 12 Japanese universities will stop enrolling students by 2023.
As you can see, most of them are junior colleges. Junior colleges in Japan are equivalent to our vocational and technical colleges or junior colleges, and they are called junior colleges because the duration of study is short, only two or three years.
The same is true for South Korea.
In 2021, Seohae University in South Korea asked the Ministry of Education to cease its activities, and East Busan University also began to cease its activities.
According to the Demographic Change and Future Outlook report** published by the Institute for Social Development at Seoul National University and the Korea Institute for Health and Society, the number of existing universities in South Korea will be reduced from more than 380 to more than 190 by 2042-2046.
Sooner or later, Chinese universities will be affected by demographic deflation.
School districts have been impacted by a decrease in the number of students due to the decrease in the number of newborns.
In the past two years, with the deterrence of the education rotation system, the number of births has continued to decline, and the speculative demand for school facilities has dropped sharply.
This situation has led to skyrocketing housing prices in first-class school districts in first-class cities.
In Shenzhen, housing prices in major school districts have risen by a quarter.
According to data from Leyoujia, the overall transaction volume of housing in major school districts in 2023** has increased from a peak of 9350,000 square meters down to the current 6850,000 square meters, a decrease of 267%。
The average price of housing in the city's six famous schools fell from 132,490 yuan square meter to 100741 yuan square meter, a decrease of 24%. And the decline continues, and the total price will soon fall below 100,000+.
In Shanghai in June last year, "National Business Daily" promoted some famous schools in Shanghai, such as Mingzhu Primary School and Zhujiatan Primary School in Pudong New Area, and Fuwai + Jianxi Twin School, which has become a famous school in Meiyuan District. The drop is larger.
In Guangzhou, some major school districts in the old town of Yuexiu saw the biggest declines, by more than 30 percent. 33 out of 45 developments**, with 14 of them down more than 10%.
In addition to the housing price table in Guangzhou's Tianhe District, two-thirds of the 45 districts included in the statistics have housing prices in **, and 18 of them have fallen by more than 10%. The largest drop was more than 25%.
In Beijing, in the past two or three years, news about the high housing situation in the Beijing school district has made headlines from time to time.
Caixin reporters found that most of the current advertising in the Des Voeux area has decreased by at least four or five hundred thousand yuan, which is a low point in recent years.
Xiamen, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and Wuhan, among others.
As the number of children continues to decline, so does the demand for school districts, and so does support for top school districts, making it difficult to maintain high housing prices.
The end result is that this deficit will continue to be felt over time.