The shutdown wave brought about a decrease of 534 people550,000! What accelerated?
On February 29 this year, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on National Economic and Social Development in 2023", which has long been familiar with data on GDP and permanent population.
In 2022, the country's GDP will reach 12,605.82 billion, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year.
By the end of 2023, the total number of people in China (31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and active military forces, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreigners in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) will 140967 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.08 million.
We have already done this last month. This ** is mainly for another piece of information: the number of children in kindergartens.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics:
In 2022, there are 409300,000 preschool children in kindergarten.
This figure represents a decrease of 534 compared to the population in 2022500 people.
Source: National Statistical Office.
According to previous data, the number of kindergartens peaked in 2020 and decreased by 13 year-on-year in 2021060,000, the first decline in the number of kindergartens in recent years.
The number of students enrolled in school showed a downward trend in 2022, falling by 177,600. Due to the rapid decline of the children, the decline of the first kindergarten was led.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Education, there were 284,800 kindergartens nationwide in 2022, down 5,610 from last year.
Now, by 2023, the number of students in kindergarten will be reduced to 5345,500, although the Ministry of Education has not yet released the figure for the previous year, it is conceivable that the pace of closure will surely accelerate.
Everyone can feel the collapse this time. When Feng Yu returned, he found that all the kindergartens in the village were closed, and there was only one kindergarten in a town.
Against the backdrop of declining pre-school education and the accelerated pace of closure, the number of births continues to decline.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 9.02 million newborns will be born in 2023, down 540,000 from 2022.
Source: National Statistical Office.
The declining number of births has two immediate consequences:
First, there has been an accelerating trend in China's economic growth.
The number of newborns is still decreasing. In the past year, 11.1 million people have lost their lives in this country. As a result, the country's deflation accelerated, falling by 2.08 million.
Second, the number of children in kindergartens and the number of pre-school institutions are on a downward trend.
And this effect extends to junior schools.
In the past two decades, with the acceleration of urbanization, a large number of rural primary schools have been closed and merged.
Source: Ministry of Education.
In 2021, however, the situation is very different. In 2022, not only the number of elementary schools has declined, but also the number of students enrolled and the number of students has fallen, which is a phenomenon that has never been seen before.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Education, the number of enrolments in primary education this year was 170,900, a year-on-year decrease of 455%, a year-on-year decrease of 81190,000; The number of students is 10.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 478,800, a decrease of 044%
This means that the closure of schools will be accelerated.
As for the number of primary school students in school next year, the number of schools, and the number of registrations, it is still necessary to wait for the release of the Ministry of Education.
In fact, in the midst of this massive migration, it is only a matter of time before primary schools become universal.
The second round of shock will continue to junior high school, high school, and even college.
We have made a calculation that the impact of population decline on secondary education will come in 2034.
A record 121,000 students took the university entrance exam.
Source: Ministry of Education.
This year's university entrance examination numbers coincide with the number of births around 2005.
As can be seen from the above chart on the number of births, in 2005, the number of newborns in China was 16.17 million, which played a role in a connection, and then, the number of births declined slightly, less than 16 million, and in 2012, it exceeded 2005 again, and reached the highest value in 20 years in 2016.
So in terms of the birth rate, this number continues to rise, and by 2034, this number will have a peak, and then start to decline in 2016.
The impact on schools will be felt in a few years' time. Japan and South Korea, two countries, already have a lot of children, but now they are even more overcrowded.
Not long ago, there was a news break in Japan:
Saho Junior College in Nara, Fukuoka Junior College, Mukogawa Junior College, Mimasaka Junior College, and Suzuka Junior College all closed in December.
Counting the previously announced Keisen Women's College, Kobe Starfish Women's College, Sophia University Junior College, Ryukoku University Junior College, Kyoto Ikebo Junior College, and Shimogyo Ward Junior College.
In Japan, no less than 12 colleges and universities will stop recruiting students in 2023.
As can be seen, most of these schools are short-term courses. Short-term colleges in Japan, as well as our current higher vocational and junior colleges, are completed in two to three years, and they are very short, so they are called junior colleges.
The same is true for South Korea.
South Korea's Seohae College has already submitted a request to terminate its school operations in 2021, while the eastern part of Busan has begun the process of closing its school.
According to a report "Demographic Change and Future Prospects" jointly released by the Institute for Social Development at Seoul National University and the South Korean Institute of Health, it is estimated that more than 190 of the more than 380 institutions of higher learning in South Korea will be cut between 2022 and 2046.
China's universities will be hit by a population crunch, and it's only a matter of time and space.
As the number of births increases, school enrollment has also declined, and the hardest hit is school district housing.
In the past two years, with the continuous decline of the population, coupled with the deterrence of the education rotation system, the demand for school district housing has also declined.
As a result, the top school district housing in first-tier cities has seen housing prices plummet.
In Shenzhen, some important areas, house prices fell by 1 4.
According to the statistics of Leyoujia, the housing prices in major regions this year have increased from 9 at the peak350,000 square meters, **267%, now 68500 square meters.
The average** of the city's six key university districts fell from 132,490 to 100741, a decrease of 24%. And it's still **, and it's about to fall below the 100,000 mark.
Here in Shanghai, the "Daily Economic News" reported on some of the top school districts in Shanghai, such as the Zhujiatan community, the top school in Pudong, the top school in Pudong - Zhujiatan, and the area with "Fuwai + Jianxi Double Campus" as the top area, are all in a significant way.
In Guangzhou, some core school districts are more than 30% old. Of the 45 real estate markets, 33 saw declines and 14 saw declines of more than 10%.
In addition, in Tianhe District, the top floor of Guangzhou, according to statistics, 45 real estate projects have dropped by 2 3, and 18 real estate projects have decreased by more than 10%. The maximum reduction is more than 25%.
In Beijing, in the past three years, it is common to see expensive school district housing in Beijing on the news
According to Caijing, most of the houses for sale in Desheng District have dropped their prices by at least four or five hundred thousand, which is the lowest in recent years.
In Xiamen, in Hangzhou, in Nanjing, in Suzhou, in Wuhan, it is all like this.
As the number of children declines, the demand for schools is getting smaller and the support from top schools is getting weaker and higher.
Most importantly, this negative impact continues.