In 2023, new energy storage will be booming, but there are also hidden worries in the boom, the growth rate of energy storage market demand will slow down, the profitability of enterprises will be compressed, and the performance will show obvious polarization, and the "battle for survival" has begun.
Recently, the 2023 annual report forecast of listed energy storage companies has been released one after another. Judging from the report cards released by upstream materials, batteries, and downstream integrators, all of them are talking about the rapid development and fierce competition of the new energy storage industry this year. On the one hand, new energy storage is booming, with about 22.6 million kilowatts and 48.7 million kilowatt-hours of new installed capacity in 2023, an increase of more than 260% from the end of 2022 and nearly 10 times the installed capacity at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. On the other hand, there are also hidden worries in the boom, the growth rate of energy storage market demand has slowed down, the profitability of enterprises has been compressed, and the performance has shown obvious polarization, and the "battle for survival" has begun.
The performance of materials declined collectively
Lithium battery materials affect the overall trend of the industry, after the first two years of "lying to make money" period, with the centralized release of production capacity, the pattern of short supply and demand is rapidly reversed, and all links of the energy storage battery industry chain are all over the line. In 2023, the year-end average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate** will fall below 100,000 tons, a decrease of more than 80% compared with the high level of 600,000 tons; The cathode material and electrolyte** are reduced by more than 60%, and the anode material and separator** are reduced by more than 20%.
The performance forecasts of Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are declining。Among them, Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 66 in 2023200 million—89500 million yuan, down 62 percent year-on-year9%—72.56%；Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 4.2 billion to 6.2 billion yuan for the whole year, a year-on-year decrease of 6976%—79.52%。
In the positive and negative pole links, the performance forecasts of Dangsheng Technology, Rongbai Technology, Tianli Lithium Energy, and Tianci Materials are all declining. Tianci Materials said that the new production capacity of cathode material precursor iron phosphate products has been climbing slowly, and the overall profitability of the business is less than expected in the face of the continuous decline in the market. Under the large fluctuations in raw materials and the market environment, the company's lithium carbonate and cathode material iron phosphate inventory decline provisions have increased, which further affects the company's profits.
Polyfluorine, a leading fluorine chemical company, provides lithium hexafluorophosphate, the main raw material for lithium battery electrolyte. Duofluoride expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 5600 million—6200 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6817%—71.25%。Duofluoride also said that due to factors such as the fluctuation of raw materials, intensified competition in the industry and lower than expected demand from downstream customers, the selling price of the company's new material product lithium hexafluorophosphate has dropped sharply, and although the output and sales volume have increased normally, the profitability has decreased due to the decline in the overall gross profit margin of the product.
Based on this,In 2023, many companies will switch production, reduce production, or even stop projectsFor example, Tianqi Lithium announced the termination of the merger and acquisition of the Australian lithium project; Hanrui Cobalt plans to terminate the 60,000-ton nickel metal high-pressure leaching project of its wholly-owned subsidiary; Mingguan New Materials divipped the business related to lithium battery cathode materials, and will not deploy lithium battery cathode materials in other ways in the short term.
The growth of battery companies is under pressure
The performance differentiation of battery companies is prominent. CATL, a leading enterprise, expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 will be 42.5 billion to 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3831%—48.07%。This is the first time that CATL's net profit has exceeded 40 billion yuan; Guoxuan Hi-Tech expects to achieve a net profit of 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 157%-253%; The net profit after deducting non-profits was 85 million - 1200 million yuan, a year-on-year turnaround. Guoxuan Hi-Tech said that in 2023, the power and energy storage markets will show a continuous growth trend, and profits will show an upward trend under the combined effect of declining raw material costs and open source and cost reduction.
Not all battery companies have ushered in good results. Penghui Energy expects a net profit of 58 million to 85 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 8647%—90.77%；Funeng Technology expects a loss of 172.4 billion—210.7 billion yuan, the year-on-year loss further increased; Penghui Energy's net profit in 2023 will be about 58 million to 85 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8647%—90.77%。
Funeng Technology explained that at the beginning of 2023, the raw materials of the product will be high, resulting in higher costs, and the product inventory at this stage will account for a relatively high proportion; With the decline in raw materials**, its product sales** also declined, resulting in a decline in gross profit.
Since 2023, the lithium battery industry has fully entered an era of overcapacity。According to the data, in 2023, the shipment of energy storage batteries by Chinese companies in the global market is estimated to be 200 GWh, while the annual capacity of global power energy storage in the same period is about 100-120 GWh, and the average capacity utilization rate of the industry is only about 50% due to the impact of supply and demand. In order to compete for market orders, companies have reduced their prices, and lithium battery ** has been cut in half in the past year.
How to reduce costs and increase efficiency has become the key word for the survival and development of lithium battery enterprises. BYD's Fodi battery was recently exposed to an internal notice that it will continue to manage and control non-productive materials this year to reduce costs and increase efficiency; SVOLT also announced that it will reduce manufacturing costs by 40% this year, procurement costs and technology costs by 20%.
Overseas market demand has slowed down
Looking at the energy storage converter PCS and energy storage system, the performance of related enterprises is generally good. Trina Solar expects a profit of 527.3 billion-582.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4327%—58.36%；Sineng Electric is expected to achieve operating income of 4.5 billion to 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9243%—113.81%。
Sineng said that under the background of "dual carbon", the global optical storage market continues to show a trend of rapid growth, and the company firmly seizes the market opportunity and advances with the trend. Consolidate the foundation of the traditional photovoltaic market in China, tap the potential, extend and expand overseas, and complete the layout of major global photovoltaic market countries including the United States, European countries, Middle Eastern countries, and India. At the same time, it increased R&D investment, enriched the allocation of product line resources, enriched the product series of optical storage, and achieved an important increase in operating income throughout the year.
Sungrow benefited from the continuous increase in the key energy storage market, and the company's energy storage business shipments will grow rapidly in 2023, achieving revenue of 71 billion to 76 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 76%-89%.
The overseas market has a higher gross profit margin than the domestic market, and going overseas will become a must for almost every energy storage company in 2023. However, with the fall of European gas prices, the demand for residential energy storage in Europe has slowed down since the second half of 2023. The world's leading household storage company, Paineng Technology, expects that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2023 will be 500 million to 600 million yuan, a decrease of about 6 percent compared with the same period last year7.3 billion—77.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5286% to 6071%。Peneng Technology said that due to the superposition of multiple factors such as changes in the macro environment, the decline of subsidies in some countries and regions, and the destocking of downstream enterprises, the growth rate of the household storage market has slowed down in stages.
The competition in the domestic market is fierce, and the demand in overseas markets is slowing down, and it is foreseeable that energy storage companies will accelerate the elimination competition. The Institute of Advanced Industry predicts that in 2024, China's new energy storage market as a whole will be oversupplied, and the competition in system integration will be more brutal than that in the battery sector, more than 50% of energy storage system companies will be eliminated, and the top ten energy storage system integrators will share more than eighty percent of the market share.
Text丨Reporter Lu Qixiu.