The Chinese population in 2023 onlybillion, which will be reduced in 2030 to:billion
Galeries Lafayette. March 3, 2024.
Executive summarySince 2016, the number of births in China has been declining year by year. In 2020, the natural population growth rate changed from positive to negative; Since then, the total population has been declining year by year. Since 2016, the number of births has decreased sharply in the past seven years, falling by 11% per year. At the end of 2023, China will have only 11600 million people. From 2023 onwards, the natural rate of decline in the Chinese population will increase by 5 per year7 or more. By 2030, China's total population will drop to 9300 million people.
Keywords:: Population Newborn Growth Rate Decrease rate.
(1) The total population of China in 2023 will be only 11600 million people.
What is the population of China? According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population reached 1.4 billion in 2017. Since then, people have said, "China has a population of more than 1.4 billion". Is it true that China has 1.4 billion people since 2017? Definitely!
Let's start with the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics:End of 2022It has a permanent population of 141175 10,000. The annual birth population is 9.56 million and the death population is 10.41 million; The birth rate is 677, mortality rate 737‰，The natural growth rate is -06‰。Data **Bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics, Ref. [1].
At the end of the year, with a permanent population of 140967 10,000; The urbanization rate is 6616%, with an urban population of 932.67 million and a rural population of 477 million; There were 720.32 million males and 689.35 million females. In 2023There were 9.02 million births and 11.1 million deaths；The birth rate is 639, mortality rate 787‰，The natural growth rate is -148‰。Data **National Bureau of Statistics, Ref. [2].
Note: "11.1 million deaths" is an estimate, because the total population and births are accurate to 10,000, and the death toll cannot be accurate to 100,000. The actual death toll in 2023 is well above 11.1 million.
From 2020 to 2023, China's population is declining rapidly due to the impact of the new crown epidemic.
According to the argument of Ref. [3], the first year of the pandemic, 2020, the total population of the country was 11800 million people.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics is more than 20% exaggerated compared with the actual data released by the Ministry of Public Security
Number of births per year:
In 2019, the annual birth population announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was 14.65 million;
The Ministry of Public Security announced that a total of 11.79 million newborns were born in 2020 and have been registered with the public security organs.
There is a difference of 2.86 million between the statistics bureau and the Ministry of Public Security. The data of the Bureau of Statistics is 24% more than that of the Ministry of Public Security!
Number of births per year:
On May 11, 2021, Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the leading group for the seventh national census and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in response to reporters' questions: "In 2020, the number of births in China will be 12 million."
On February 8, 2021, the Ministry of Public Security announced that a total of 1,003 newborns were born in 2020 and have been registered with the public security organs50,000 people.
Please note the above two data: Regarding the number of newborns in 2020, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics said that it was 12 million, and the household registration statistics of the Ministry of Public Security was 100350 thousand. The difference between the data of the Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Public Security is 19650,000 people. The data of the Bureau of Statistics is 20% more than that of the Ministry of Public Security!
Obviously,The data of the Ministry of Public Security is true and reliable, because it is household registration statistics. The number of newborns in the National Bureau of Statistics is estimated, and the real statistics cannot be a whole number of 12 million。Actually,"12 million newborns" isNational Bureau of StatisticsFalsified data。Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, actually falsified data, deceived Zhong Ying, and misled Guo Wuyuan, which is really bold!
In Ref. [3], the authors used two methods to prove the national population in 2020.
First, the total population is calculated based on the exaggerated proportions of the statistics bureau data.
AssumptionsThe data released by the statistical office is 15% higher than the actual data(instead of 20% or 24%). Then, solve an algebraic equation to get the actual population for 2020:
x (1+15%) = 14.12, x = 11.77 ≈, ieThe actual total population in 2020 was 11800 million people.
Second, the total population is calculated based on the floating population of duplicate statistics.
On May 11, 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics released the information provided by the Ministry of Public Security2020 Floating Population:375.82 million people. The vast majority of the floating population is double-counted. Assumptions65% of the floating population has been double-counted。In this way, the actual total population of China in 2020 is 141.2 billion minus the number of duplicate counts:
14.12 – 3.76 x 65%) = 11.68 ≈, ieThe actual total population in 2020 was 11700 million people
We believe thatAt the end of 2020, the total population of the country was 11800 million people.
According to the calculation of the total population data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, which is 18% higher than the actual data, thenThe total population of the country at the end of 2023 is 11600 million people.
(2) In the past three years of the epidemic, the number of extraordinary deaths nationwide has been about 25 million
According to the argument of Ref. [4], in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, the natural population growth rate was negative -078‰；From 2019 to 2020, the Chinese population grew from positive (084 ) to negative growth (-078 ).。A negative population growth rate is the rate of decline.
The year 2020 has become a turning point for population growth from positive to negativeThe main reasonIt is the new crown epidemic, followed by the long-term consumption of genetically modified food and non-staple foods by Chinese people.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the total population of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was 141008 million. See References[1].
As noted in the previous section, the data on newborns published by the National Bureau of Statistics increased by 20 to 24 per cent compared to the actual figures published by the Ministry of Public Security.
We assume that the total population published by the National Bureau of Statistics is 19% larger than the actual number, thenThe actual population in 2019 was 118.5 billion people
As already demonstrated in the previous section, the actual total population in 2023 is 11600 million.
Four years of the pandemic(2020 to 2023),The total population decreased by about 25 million people, i.e. 25 million unnatural deaths.
This is not rhetoric, but a reasonable speculation based on facts. We have argued, our countryIn the three months between December 2022 and February 2023, the number of deaths due to Omicron infection was as high as 5.4 million。See Ref. [5].
(3) The annual population decline rate is increasing, and only 9 will be left in 2030300 million people.
1. The number of births has declined sharply in the past seven years, by 11% per year
With regard to the number of births per year, the following data are disclosed in Ref. [6]:
Since the birth of New ChinaThe year with the highest number of birthsYes1963 year。More than 29 million newborns were born this year, reachingof 29.34 million people。This was followed in 1964, 1968 and 1970, with more than 27 million births, respectively.
From 1976 until the early eighties, the number of births was below 20 million per year. In the decade from 1981 to 1997, the number of births per year rose to more than 20 million. In 1987, the number of births reached 25.08 million, almost up to the level of births in 1966.
Since 1998, the number of births in China has gradually dropped to less than 20 million, and it has shown a trend of stability or decline. The number of births in 2016 was 18.83 million。Since 2016, the number of births has been declining year by year.
Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics,In 2023, there will be 9.02 million births
The annual birth population is only the population born in 1963
The annual birth population is the population born in 2016
From 2016 to 2023, thisSeven years, the number of births has decreasedThe number of births is declining by an average of 11 per cent per year。Let the decline rate be x%, and the equation is as follows:
1883-(1+x%)7 = 903；
1+x% = (1883÷902)1/7 = 1.11；
x% = 1.11-1 = 0.11 = 11%。
2. The rate of population decline from 2020 to 2023 will increase by 0 per year57%
Regarding the rate of natural decrease (negative growth rate) of the country's population, the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics is: in 2022, the rate of reduction was 06‰；In 2023, the rate of reduction is 148‰。The population decline rate in 2023 increased by 088‰。
However, we have cited data published by the Ministry of Public Security in Ref. [3] to show that the number of annual births announced by the National Bureau of Statistics has increased by 20% to 24% compared with the actual number. Therefore, the above reduction rate is not credible.
In the first section we have confirmed that the population in 2020 was 11800 million people, with a population of 11 in 2023600 million people. Based on these two numbers, we can calculate fromDuring the three-year period from 2020 to 2023, the average annual natural population reduction rate is 057%
Let the population decline rate be x%, then the equation is .
11.8（1-x%）3 = 11.6；
x% = 1-（11.6÷11.8）1/3 = 0.57%。
Because from 2020 onwards, the natural population growth rate has changed from positive to negative, so wePut 057% (i.e. 5.)7‰Look at the increasing value of the ** mouth reduction rate. In this way, the population in 2024 will be less than in 2023.
The population in 2025 will decrease compared to the rate of 2024, and so on.
3. The Chinese population is rapidly declining and will drop to 9 in 2030300 million people.
The annual rate of natural decline of the population increases by 057% calculated,By 2030, China's total population will drop to 9300 million people.
We use n1, n2 、......N6 and N7 represent the population in 2024, 2025, and 2030 respectively, and the annual formula is as follows:
n1 = 11.6-11.6（0.57%+0.57%）= 11.46；
n2 = n1-n1（3×0.57%） = 11.26；
n7 = n6-n6（8×0.57%）= ≈ 9.3。
In this way, from 11 in 2023600 million people are declining to only 9 by 2030300 million people.
From this, it can be seen thatIn the seven periods from 2023 to 2030, China's population will decline by 20%.
Why is China's population declining so dramatically? We will answer this question in a later article.
At this point, some people will say that China's 900 million people are just right. If the policy of common prosperity is implemented, both natural and social resources will be sufficient. However, the rate of population decline is too fast and irreversible, which will not only bring a lot of social problems, but alsoWithin 200 years, the Chinese nation will become extinct！We will elaborate on this issue in a later article.
References
1] Editor of "Red and Black Population Database", "Population Data of China (Excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan)," "Red and Black Population Database"**, January 18, 2024. Web Links:
2] China.com reporter, "National Bureau of Statistics: China's annual birth population in 2023 will be 9.02 million", APP, February 29, 2024. Web Links:
3] Galeries Lafayette, "Elements of Demographics and the Current Situation of China's Total Population," Zhihu, December 13, 2021. Web Links:
4] Wu Guofa, "The Transformation of Chinese's Natural Growth Rate from Positive to Negative," Observer.com, February 15, 2022. Web Links:
5] Galeries Lafayette, "The new coronavirus and the new crown epidemic are also raging, and they are in a hurry", Weibo, February 8, 2024. Web Links:
6] Plain and Comfortable: "In Which Years Does China Have the Most Births?" App, January 22, 202. Web Links: