May 9 was an important day for Russia, as the Russian army held a grand military parade on Red Square to demonstrate its combat capabilities.
This year, Ukraine offered a bounty for the sabotage of the military parade on Red Square, adding to the tension over the incident.
Ukraine's special operations show the power of drones, covering Moscow and other important locations, Tu-141 "Swift" carrying 100 kg bombs to cause significant damage around Moscow, 15 m x 8 m craters in residential areas, personnel **.
This suggests that Russia's defense capabilities against "low, slow, small" targets are flawed. Therefore, it is expected that the Ukrainian army will make a big move on the big day of May 9.
The attack on Russia on the territory of Ukraine is the result of the support of Western countries. In several recent drone operations, including the drone that crashed more than 170 kilometers from Moscow, the navigation of which was provided by the American Global Hawk UAV at high altitudes.
The U.S. "Global Hawk" strategic drone is responsible for monitoring the route and targets, and planning flight routes, while the Ukrainian military drones carry ** equipment to attack targets.
Therefore, the coordinated operation of UAVs and UAVs has become a current megatrend.
In the Black Sea attack in 2022, the Ukrainian army demonstrated superb UAV and unmanned boat cooperative combat capabilities, forming a "three-no combination" including high-altitude UAVs, medium-altitude UAVs and surface unmanned boats.
If they choose to launch an attack on Moscow's Red Square, unmanned equipment and special operations equipment will undoubtedly be the focus of their attention. Previously, their attacks on the Engels airbase, the Diaghilevo airfield and the gas station more than 80 kilometers from Moscow may have been a kind of rehearsal for their future actions.
At present, multi-directional attacks by large UAVs have become their regular mode.
In the past, drone attacks were carried out by a single aircraft, and the US target information guided the attack on the target. Russian units, while sometimes able to see them, sometimes miss; Some can intercept, while others cannot.
If a large-scale attack is carried out against the military parade on Red Square, there will be no single sortie, but multiple infiltration attacks will be launched from multiple directions at the same time, and the penetration and strike capabilities will be enhanced through the flexible use of large and small combinations, high and low combinations, and fast and slow combinations.
However, there is no good way to prevent this kind of target, because this type of drone flies at a low altitude, and the recent crashes are generated by hitting trees, and the flight altitude is about 30 to 50 meters, which is usually in the blind spot of the radar, although it can be detected, but the reaction time after detection is very short, which will greatly reduce the early warning ability of the next target point.
Low, slow, small"Multi-angle attacks on targets pose a severe challenge to reconnaissance, early warning, and interception. Russia has made progress in defending against drones, but it is not 100% effective in its defense.
High-rise buildings in Moscow have been deployed"Armor"systems and other close-range defenses**, and a variety of ** are also deployed around. However, these equipment are mainly aimed at military targets, such as fighters, bombers, cruise missiles, and common air targets, right"Low, slow, small"The protection capabilities of drones are relatively limited.
In order to ensure the safety of the military parade on Red Square on May 9, Russia may adopt an "iron bucket" strategy. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year, the display of the air echelon was canceled, but if there is a special operations unit and drone attack during the parade, it will be a difficult opportunity to capture.
Therefore, "tense and orderly" is not only a test of the military parade inside Red Square, but more importantly, a multi-level reconnaissance and early warning system outside Red Square to ensure the safety factor of the outer defense.
Otherwise, in the event of an attack by drones and special operations forces, it will not only have a huge psychological shock to Russia, but may also aggravate the situation of the war.
The military parade on Red Square is not only a demonstration of the process of being paraded, but more importantly, the systematic defense of drones, cruise missiles and special operations attacks in the parade. Ukraine is also seizing this important opportunity and preparing to offer a bounty for drones to break into Red Square, and the two sides will start a new game on major festivals, important nodes, and important actions.