In India, the decline in the domestic market is expected to boost the country's export potential, thanks to the current more competitive exchange rate. In particular, exports of cumin seeds are expected to exceed 200,000 tonnes in the 2023-24 financial year (starting in April to March), which is expected to be the highest ever based on the fact that India's major cumin-producing states are expected to produce at all.
Over the past year, India's cumin market has experienced wild volatility, including disruptions and a drop in export demand, followed by an expansion in acreage. Cumin** hit an all-time high of Rs 64,000 per 100kg in September 2023 due to reduced domestic production. However, with the increase in production and the excess, market sentiment was suppressed again, this time stimulating export demand.
According to an unnamed Jodhpur businessman, cumin on the global market has risen sharply to US$3,700-4,200 per tonne, compared to US$5,900-7,000 per tonne in October. Traders expect India to export 14,000-15,000 tonnes of cumin in February, given the upcoming festive season and attractive season. And according to R**i Shankar Pandey, a senior analyst at SMC Global Securities, export demand usually rises in February due to the Ramzan festival, although the festival is usually held in March or April.
The Jodhpur businessman went a step further and could be $500 globally from March to June as new rabbinical crops hit the market. The arrival of the new crop began at the end of February and accelerated to the market in March. Pandey noted that India's cumin exports are usually around 200,000 tonnes, but this year could increase by 30-40 percent compared to the previous year. According to the Department of Commerce, India exported 176,011 tonnes of cumin in 2022-23 and 204,388 tonnes in 2021-22.
Pandey also expects that the increase in export demand may in turn boost the domestic**, with cumin** in the domestic market expected to reach Rs 34,000-38,000 per 100kg by the end of February. When India's cumin** remains high, its traditional overseas buyers – including Iran, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Bangladesh – turn to others** such as Turkey, China and Syria. With the decline in India**, these buyers seem to be back in the hands of Indian producers.
During the rabbinic season, due to the increase in the area under cumin cultivation, there may be a limiting effect on **. India typically produces a total of 600,000-650,000 tonnes of cumin per year, but this year's production is expected to reach a record 850,000-900,000 tonnes. According to the Indian Spice Council, in 2022-23, India produced 627,031 tonnes of cumin.
During the current rabbinic season, the area sown with cumin in the main producing states has increased substantially. In Gujarat, for example, the area under cultivation of cumin has almost doubled to 561,306 hectares from 275,832 hectares last year. Rajasthan, the second largest producer of spices, has also seen its cumin cultivation increase to 677,212 hectares from 579,140 hectares a year ago, which is expected to repeat its outstanding performance in the current rabbinic season.