Speaking of coal faucets, I believe that many people's first reaction is that China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry are also very well-known.
It is really 30 years of Hedong, 30 years of Hexi, the coal boss of more than ten years ago, and Yankuang Energy.
At that time, Shenhua learned from Yankuang, and the goal was to be the latecomer.
After ten years in the coal industry, China Shenhua has successfully sat in the position of big brother, while Yankuang Energy has been frustrated to the point of huge losses.
Fortunately, in the past few years, it has been scraping bones to cure poison, constantly reforming and reorganizing, and now it has returned to the third position, and it is not an exaggeration to say that it is a phoenix nirvana.
So as an energy company like coal, how can there be such ups and downs? What does the future hold?
The basis of all production is energy.
The world's three major energy sources, coal, oil and natural gas, the first two are the top priorities.
Therefore, there are only two names for all kinds of minerals and energy substances, one is the foreign "oil tycoon", and the other is our "coal boss".
The mining industry has been going on for thousands of years without interruption.
Relatively speaking, our coal resources are relatively abundant, so we have always been the main energy source, and we are exploring and building large and small coal mines everywhere.
So now those large coal enterprises, all of them have mines first, and then have the predecessor of the company, and then they have been restructured to this day to varying degrees.
The same is true for Yankuang Energy, which set up its headquarters as early as 1966 in order to develop the Yanzhou mining area.
However, the early stage was not smooth, and in the 70s, 20,000 people were transferred from Guizhou and Jiangxi to carry out construction, and it was only then that there was really a shadow of coal mining.
At that time, the first mining area developed was the Xinglongzhuang mine, with a design capacity of 3 million tons.
After having this mining area, the coal was finally dug out, so in 1976 the "Yanzhou Mining Bureau" was established.
The following 15 eventful years were the gorgeous transformation of Yanzhou Coal Mine, and the progress was very great.
By 1990, Yankuang had five large-scale mining areas: Nantun, Dongtan, Baodian, Yangcun and Xinglongzhuang, with a production capacity of more than 10 million tons from just one million tons, and an output value of more than 300 million yuan from 10 million tons.
However, at that time, new coal mines were everywhere in the country, because from the mid-80s, in order to solve the energy problem, coal mining was strongly encouraged.
Especially in Shanxi, almost every village has a coal mine, which is too exaggerated, and the number even exceeds 10,000.
Our "coal boss" has risen since that time.
Because villages and towns simply simply do not have the strength to invest in so many coal mines, and the coal mines in the 80s were not profitable, and a ton of coal could only earn a few yuan, so they could only be contracted to private individuals.
Therefore, it was also difficult for the coal boss back then, especially it was difficult to collect debts.
But in 1993, the Ministry of Energy was abolished, the Ministry of Coal was established for the second time, and coal and power reform began, giving birth to the first wave of coal development.
Until 1997, the country's large and small coal mines ushered in explosive growth, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as savage growth.
Yanzhou Coal Mine has also grown significantly year after year, and in 1996 it was renamed "Yanzhou Mining" Company.
However, then faced the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global economy fell sharply, resulting in a rapid contraction of global energy demand, and coal ** also fell again and again.
It is in this context that Yanzhou Mining was listed in Shanghai, Hong Kong and the United States at the same time, becoming the only company listed in three places at the same time.
Including the later acquisition of coal mines in Australia, and then listed in Australia, becoming a listed company in four places.
In the year when Yanzhou Coal Mine went public, the Ministry of Coal, which had just been established for five years, was once again abolished, and many large coal companies were delegated to the local government.
However, during this period, the entire coal industry was in a downturn for four years.
Until 2001, almost all coal companies had a hard time, and the first batch of coal bosses also carried out a major change, and many people sold their mines without seeing hope.
However, a small number of coal bosses who insisted on staying had more and more mines in their hands, which gave rise to the myth of getting rich later.
Yanzhou Mining was already a leader in the coal industry at that time, and it was the main force in the acquisition of coal mines in Shandong, so the company still had a net profit of about 700 million yuan in those years, and its assets exceeded 100 billion.
The time came to December 11, 2001, which should be remembered by many people, because on this day, we joined the WTO and officially integrated into the world economy.
It's like opening a Pandora door, and our industry is taking off rapidly, giving full play to our hard-working spirit, and the primary industrial products are continuously shipped to all parts of the world.
At the same time, it has also brought huge domestic energy demand, and the coal industry has finally begun to raise its eyebrows.
However, the power industry is still sluggish, and there is a very magical scene, while buying the best coal to generate electricity, while spending a lot of money to build hydropower stations but not selling electricity, which I have also said in my previous analysis of hydropower companies.
Of course, this is not possible, so in 2002 there was the famous "Electric Power System Reform (No. 5 Document)", which we generally refer to as Electricity Reform No. 5, because in 2015 there was also an Electricity Reform No. 9 Document.
This document has two very important contents, one is the restructuring of power enterprises. The other is coal reform.
First of all, the State Power Corporation was split into two power companies, "State Grid" and "China Southern Power Grid".
Then there is the establishment of "Huaneng, Huadian, Datang, State Power Investment and Guodian" these five power generation groups, a few years ago China Shenhua and Guodian reorganized into the world's largest power generation group.
In terms of coal reform, the coal guide price has been opened, that is, it is completely marketized.
Since the beginning of this year, coal has ushered in the second take-off, that is, it has begun to enter what we often call "10 years of coal".
Coal ** every day without repeating, I have seen the grand occasion at that time, customers with trucks to buy coal, are loaded with boxes of cash to queue, buy coal is needed to grab.
A large part of the entertainment news in those years was that a certain star married a certain coal boss.
However, since 2005, Shanxi Province has begun to "experiment with the paid use of coal resources", that is, coal bosses need to pay coal mine royalties.
At that time, Shanxi's coal reserves were 270 billion tons, and the state-owned mines accounted for only 26 billion tons, and 9.6 million tons were allocated free of charge.
If you want a coal mine to pay a royalty, the first thing you need to know is who is the main body of the coal mine?
At that time, it was very likely that a coal mine was contracted for several floors, and it was difficult to find the person who was actually responsible.
Therefore, the "mining rights reform" is also imminent, and the coal bosses have begun to have a formal identity.
However, 2008 was their last highlight moment, and in the first half of the year, the change of coal ** was no longer measured in "days", but "hours".
You read that right, how much is a ton this hour, and it will rise a little more in the next hour, which is very exaggerated, and it continues until July.
The price of such a savage rise is also huge, and the only thought of every coal boss is to find a way to dig more coal, not caring about waste, and not even caring about the life and death of miners.
In serious cases, there are many mining disasters every day, many of which are major accidents, which directly become the fuse of the national coal reform.
Therefore, since the second half of 2008, with a thunderous momentum, the coal mine restructuring action has been quickly launched, and most of the small and medium-sized coal mines in the country have been merged by large coal enterprises.
Coal bosses have only two options, either to become a minority shareholder in a large coal company, or to sell their coal mines.
No matter how you choose, the term "coal boss" has begun to fall into the dust of history after nearly 20 years of popularity.
With a huge amount of money in hand, they stepped into the big cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and started another myth of their wealth, that is, "buying a house", but this is another scene.
With the curtain call of small and medium-sized coal mines, large coal enterprises officially appeared and began to become the protagonists of the coal industry.
Our coal is mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, among which Xinjiang coal has not been the mainstream because of transportation problems.
Shanxi's coal mining industry is quite distinctive, mainly controlled by local enterprises, and it is difficult for foreign enterprises to enter.
Therefore, many large coal enterprises have started the battle for coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.
Among them, the biggest harvest is, of course, China's Shenhua, and then Shaanxi Coal Industry.
Shaanxi Coal was actually established in 2004, but at the beginning of its establishment, it was for reorganization, merging 10 local coal companies in Shaanxi, with an output of up to 30 million tons at the beginning.
In the local coal mines in Shanxi, they also wanted to integrate, but because there were too many interests involved, they couldn't get a giant out, and there were too many wonderful stories in it.
Now the volume of Jinmei is also very large, but it is a later thing.
In 2010, after the issuance of the "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Merger and Reorganization of Coal Mining Enterprises", the progress of restructuring accelerated again, and the number of coal mining enterprises in Shanxi was originally as high as about 2,200, but only 130 remained.
Shandong is also a large province with rich coal resources, and in 2011, the six coal companies of "Xinwen, Zaozhuang, Zibo, Feicheng, Linyi and Longkou Mining" were merged and reorganized, which also created a giant "Shandong Energy Group".
However, it should be noted that Shandong Energy did not merge Yankuang Group at that time, and Yankuang's production capacity at that time was 60 million tons.
Shandong Energy's production capacity is 83 million tons, ranking among the top five coal enterprises in the country, and after the reorganization, the company's operating efficiency has been greatly improved, and the output immediately exceeded 100 million tons.
Then why didn't Yankuang be merged together at that time? Isn't that a step up?
There are two main reasons, the first is that Yankuang has been listed in three places, and if it is merged into Shandong Energy, it will be very troublesome and mainly time-consuming, and the second is that Yankuang is well-known overseas, and Shandong Energy is just a local giant.
However, although the two families failed to tie the knot, the seeds of fate were planted.
By 2012, the first 10-year period of coal has arrived, and after these 10 years of savage growth, many coal companies have become giants.
And because it is too easy to make money, many coal companies have suffered from "big business disease".
The symptoms are basically bloated structure, inefficient, and superficial.
Yankuang Energy is a typical example of this, and the problems that have accumulated for many years in 2013 completely exploded.
As shown in the figure above, this is the net profit performance of those years, after reaching a peak of 9 billion in 2010, it took only 3 years, and the net profit in 2013 was only less than 300 million.
This is still a listed company, and the entire group is actually a huge loss.
Of course, there is also a very important reason for the strategic direction, in addition to mining coal, Yankuang has also invested heavily in the field of coal chemical industry, which is difficult to evaluate whether it is good or bad.
On the bright side, although the coal chemical industry has suffered losses for many years, from 2016 to the present, after in-depth reform, the performance is getting better and better, and it has been able to contribute more than 30 billion revenue and nearly 10 billion operating profits, which will be detailed in the following business parts.
On the bad side, the coal chemical industry, which cost more than 30 billion yuan to build, did seriously drag Yankuang back in those years.
Yankuang has completely fallen behind after 10 years of coal **, but it is also the beginning of Phoenix Nirvana.
Since 2013, Yankuang has undergone two years of bone scraping and drug treatment, and the priority place for surgery is the headquarters, reducing the 48 structures to only 10, and the number of personnel from 847 to 100.
Then it spread outward, and the management positions of the entire group were cut by more than 5,000, and the number of ordinary positions was reduced by 350,000.
The reduction in staff is accompanied by a salary cut.
Before that, many coal miners could get about 10,000 a month, but at this time it basically dropped to about 3,000, and by 2015 it was only 1,000.
The result of reducing personnel and wages is to reduce the cost of coal by 28 yuan per ton of coal, don't look like 28 yuan seems to be very little, according to the volume of Yankuang at that time, personnel costs can be saved about 30 billion.
In addition to optimizing the management side, the production side is also large, and a large number of loss-making institutions have been shut down, such as the "Beisu Coal Mine".
In the field of coal chemical industry, Yankuang Energy has a very big internal disagreement, some people think that this is a burden that should be thrown off, and some people think that it is not easy to persist to this point after investing so much, and we should strive to reverse it.
In the end, it did not give up, and also carried out a major replacement, replacing the old equipment and high-energy-consuming equipment, and also launched some new projects, and began to enter new materials and new energy.
The results of these reform measures were undoubtedly very good, and Yankuang Energy's performance skyrocketed in the following years.
In just a few years, the revenue has doubled, and the group's profit has also increased from a loss of 5.9 billion yuan to a profit of more than 10 billion, successfully completing the phoenix nirvana.
Although it has lost the honor of being the first in the country in the past, there is basically no company that can catch up with China Shenhua anymore, and the difference in coal reserves is too great, even if it is Shaanxi Coal Industry, it is not an order of magnitude.
And Shenhua still has a lot of ** assets, which are not known to the outside world.
However, Yankuang Energy's pace of progress has never stopped.
In 2017, after several rounds of competition, Yankuang won 100% of the shares of Rio Tinto's "United Coal", making the new company "Yancoal" the largest independent coal producer in Australia.
Not only has it been collecting coal overseas, but it has also undergone a major adjustment in the industry at its home base.
2020 is another year of major reform in the coal and power industry, and the "Pilot Plan for Regional Integration of Coal and Power Resources of Central Enterprises" was issued, and the biggest change is that each of the five major power generation groups mentioned above has been allocated a province, and Huaneng, Huadian, Datang, State Power Investment and National Energy have been allocated to Gansu, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai and Ningxia respectively.
In the past, these five companies were crossed, and they all had business in these five provinces, but after the reorganization, a situation of one central enterprise and one province was formed.
In addition to these five main identities, in the Northeast and Southwest, restructuring pilots have also been carried out.
This year, Yankuang Group and Shandong Energy continued to move forward, and the lovers finally became dependents, and the reorganization was successful.
After the reorganization, Yankuang Group was the main body of existence, but it was renamed Shandong Energy, and the listed company in the external window was still Yankuang Energy, which seemed to be more famous than Yankuang.
Yankuang, which has been developing for more than 40 years, has experienced countless ups and downs, failures, successes, confusion, but more determination.
Yankuang Energy has two main businesses, one is coal, the other is coal chemical industry, and some power business.
1. Coal
At present, Yankuang Energy's coal mines are mainly located in Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and the main foreign country is Australia.
The total domestic coal resources are about 14.2 billion tons, with proven reserves of about 2.9 billion tons and credible reserves of 11200 million tons, two new acquisitions last year were not added.
Overseas coal resources are about 9.3 billion tons, and the mineable reserves are 16400 million tons.
Resources refer to proven reserves, but some of them may not be of exploitable value, such as low quality coal or high mining costs.
Proving the reserves is basically no problem, and it has been proven by engineering technology, such as digging tunnels, or delineating through three-sided drilling, etc., whether it is reserves or quality, it has been verified.
Credible reserves can be equated to coal that can be mined immediately.
The geographical location and ecological environment of each coal mine are different, including human factors such as intricate relationships, which will make a coal mine have mining value, but it may not necessarily be mined.
Therefore, whether it is resources, mineable or confirmed reserves, there is not much practical significance, and these three indicators must not be used to value coal companies.
The performance of coal companies is mainly determined by production, cost and **.
Among them, the output mainly depends on the approved capacity, that is, how much coal you dig will be given by the high-level level.
However, many coal mines have actually dug more before, and the production capacity of coal is not a problem at all, especially the kind of open-pit coal mine, which can be dug directly by driving a large excavator.
Therefore, many coal companies will dig coal beyond the approval for performance, so I will not name or elaborate on this.
It is estimated that supervision will be strengthened in the future, and a month ago, the document of "rectifying the three supers" was issued.
The three supers are mainly these three points, whether the annual and monthly raw coal production plan tasks are overpowered, whether the annual raw coal output exceeds 10% of the approved (design) production capacity, and whether the monthly raw coal output is greater than 10% of the approved (design) production capacity.
In fact, the meaning conveyed is that this year's coal production should be controlled.
Why control yield?
Because it is necessary to protect the coal**.
When I analyzed China Shenhua and China Coal Energy before, I said that our future coal ** is likely to stabilize at the current level range, with small fluctuations and no big ups and downs.
In fact, under normal circumstances, the management also has the ability to control coal**, and maintaining the balance between supply and demand can be stable anyway**.
But there is also an extreme situation, that is, in the case of the global energy skyrocket, for example, if oil really falls to forty or fifty dollars a barrel, then coal ** will not be able to keep.
Because foreign coal will inevitably fall to a very low level, oil is cheaper, and shipping costs are cheaper, so when imported coal is so cheap that we can't refuse, we don't need to dig coal, just buy it directly.
Now the Brent benchmark price is fluctuating around $80 barrel, which is not cheap.
So at present, it is not external factors that affect our energy, but mainly ourselves.
That's very simple, the management must know the amount of coal consumed, and then consider the current inventory, and finally issue the indicators one by one, and so-and-so approves how much coal you can dig this year.
As long as it does not exceed the standard, the coal ** will naturally stabilize.
Yankuang Energy's coal production in 2023 will be about 1300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 067%, but sales are about 13.8 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 112%, which is a small margin.
Then there is only one question of cost, which is divided into two parts, one is the cost of extraction, and the other part is the cost of transportation.
The cost of mining depends on the coal mine itself, a typical one is the Xinjiang coal mine, most of which are open-pit coal mines, which are dug directly by large machinery and can be unmanned, so the cost is very low.
The cost of transportation mainly depends on the transportation distance, and now we mainly consume coal in the area or the power plant on the southeast coast, so the coal supply in Xinjiang is mainly to ensure the supply, and the cost of shipping out is high.
Due to the Australian coal mines, Yankuang Energy's cost varies greatly.
The picture above shows Yankuang's main sales companies in China, and you can see the obvious difference.
Luxi Mining and Xinjiang Nenghua were merged in the second half of last year.
The cost of coal sales in Shandong is relatively high, reaching more than 560 yuan tons, which is similar to the cost of selling Australian coal.
The lowest cost is the sales cost of Xinjiang Nenghua, which is less than 93 yuan per ton, which is six times worse.
However, Yankuang Energy happens to have the largest sales volume in Shandong, such as Heze Nenghua and Luxi Mining, with a total sales volume of 10.43 million tons in the first three quarters of 2023.
Although it is not as good as Xinjiang Nenghua, which sold 13.65 million tons, it is not a level.
The sales of these two companies in Shandong were 1,430 yuan and 1,195 yuan tons respectively, while the sales of Xinjiang were only 161 yuan tons.
This is also the reason why Yankuang Energy is more flexible than China's Shenhua and Shaanxi coal industry, a large part of his coal is the market price, when the coal is good, the profit is very high, and when the coal is bad, the profit decline will be relatively large.
Most of the Shenhua and Shaanxi coal are long-term agreement prices, which will be much more stable.
The cost of coal mining in Australia is also very low, the same as our Xinjiang coal, but so far away, there is a relatively large uncertainty about exchange rate fluctuations and transportation costs, but fortunately, these coals are market prices, and they are more profitable than long-term coal when they are good.
Compared with 2022, the coal performance of Yankuang Energy last year also declined a lot.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's coal business sales revenue was 83.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 239%, a decrease of about 26.2 billion.
2. Coal chemical industry
This business was developed by Yankuang Energy with a lot of effort, and it almost gave up back then.
Before the company's restructuring, methanol was the only product in the coal chemical sector, but now it is different, the main products are ethylene glycol, acetic acid, ethyl acetate and urea in addition to methanol.
Of course, there are other products, but the production is relatively small, not more than 100,000 tons.
These things are common primary products in chemical products, so basically every coal chemical company will have them.
Yankuang Energy's chemical business is mainly in Lunan Chemical, Future Energy, Yulin Nenghua, Ordos Company, Fine Chemical and Xinjiang Nenghua, which actually contribute a small proportion of revenue.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the sales revenue of the chemical business was 19.7 billion, almost the same as in 2022.
However, last year's chemical products were relatively sluggish, so the company's total output was nearly 6.5 million tons, an increase of nearly 800,000 tons year-on-year, but the revenue did not increase.
In recent years, major chemical companies have expanded their production very violently, especially Wanhua Chemical, so the pressure on chemical products this year is still very great.
However, in the current environment, every industry is rolled anyway, and it is good to get used to it.
Seeing the performance of the above two main businesses, I believe you don't need to look at the performance data, and you also know that Yankuang Energy's finances were under pressure last year.
In the third quarter of last year, the revenue was 135 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1078%, the main reason is that as mentioned earlier, coal** has decreased a lot compared to 2022.
Net profit fell even more.
The third quarter reported a net profit of 208700 million, down 39% year-on-year.
The decline in gross and net profit margins is one reason, and the performance in 2022 is too good, resulting in an excessively high base.
Moreover, the performance of Luxi Mining and Xinjiang Nenghua, which were consolidated last year, was not good, and Luxi Mining's coal sales revenue in the first three quarters was 104500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 112%, Xinjiang Nenghua's coal sales revenue in the first three quarters was 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%.
In fact, the sales volume of Luxi Mining was 8.74 million tons, an increase of 115%, but the sales of **1195 yuan tons, down 20 percent year-on-year3%。
There is also Xinjiang Nenghua, which is not very good, with sales of 13.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 73%, sales **1614 yuan tons, also down 278%。
However, don't think that the acquisition of these two companies is not good, no matter how the acquired company also contributed 1.1 billion net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters.
Yankuang Energy's target is 300 million tonnes a year, which is still far from being reached, and it will certainly continue to buy coal mines in the future.
In addition, the Australian coal mine will gradually resume production, under normal circumstances, it is no problem to produce 35 million tons at full capacity, and now the layer of soil on the coal mine has almost been stripped off, and the coal mining will definitely speed up in the future.
However, the capital expenditure in the past two years has been not small, which has increased the company's debt.
In the third quarter of last year, the asset-liability ratio was 695%, which has hit a new high in nearly a decade.
67.The short-term borrowings of 700 million yuan are not much, but the long-term borrowings due within a year are nearly 17.8 billion, and the long-term borrowings are 56.8 billion, which is a new high.
Therefore, although Yankuang Energy has tens of billions of payables, its annual financial expenses are still not low, and it has been growing for four consecutive years.
The expansion of the scale still brings a lot of pressure to the company.
However, as long as the coal mine can be kept and the cost is optimized low enough, it is no problem to make money, but it is just a matter of how much.
Yankuang Energy's mining costs do have room for optimization, and with the improvement of domestic coal mines and the recovery of Australian coal production capacity, the company's self-produced coal costs will decrease.
So don't worry, the time for Yankuang to really make money has not yet come, even if it doesn't count his coal chemical industry, it will get better and better.
The top two in the coal industry, China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry, have the advantage of stability, and high certainty, and can calculate how much money can be made this year with a small error.
There are two other ones that are not ranked, but they are very flexible, that is, Guanghui Energy and TBEA, the two Xinjiang coal leaders.
Guanghui and TBEA control the Xinjiang coal mines, as long as the coal is better, their performance can increase significantly, on the contrary, the coal is poor, they have no money to make.
After all, Xinjiang coal is mainly used in the western region, Guanghui Energy is a little better, compared with TBEA, it is a little closer to the east, and the quality of its coal is very high, so as long as the coal rises a little, he has the strength to transport Xinjiang coal.
Yankuang Energy is between their two camps, and its stability is not as good as Shenhua's, because it does not have so much long-term coal, and its elasticity is not as good as Guanghui, because the cost is not as low as his.
However, the elasticity is larger than that of Shenhua, and the scale is far greater than that of Guanghui, so this is also a unique advantage.
And there is another point, the coal mine in Australia is a super mine, and now it can be said that it is still in the early stage of development, so I didn't even talk about the resource reserves before, and this mine is all at market price**.
So once the coal is good, Yankuang Energy's performance will be very bright.
In addition, assets will continue to be injected in the next few years, and an annual output of 300 million tons may not be a dream!
I have made the following table of "A-share Core Asset Research Summary", which selects hundreds of high-quality companies and attaches tens of thousands of words of analysis methods.
All companies analyzed will update their data in the table above.
Exploring the study of corporate fundamentals together, the gains are bound to be huge.
Little thumbs, get a thumbs up.
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