It is expected to treat both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve real estate risks and accelerate the construction of a new development model
Wang Lixin and Chen Xiao of the *** group of this newspaper Prevent and resolve the risks of real estate enterprises, optimize real estate policies, and improve the ...... of the industry's balance sheetThis is a topic of great concern to real estate companies, real estate practitioners and home buyers in the past year. So, regarding the real estate market, what new signals have been released by the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress this year? In this year's work report, there are three aspects worth paying attention to in relation to the real estate market. The first is to address both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, and maintain overall economic and financial stability; The second is to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, improve the basic system related to commercial housing, and meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified improved housing; The third is to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. From the perspective of the industry, this means that this year, the real estate industry will not only focus on resolving risks, but also improve the "security + market" housing system, and make efforts at both ends of supply and demand at the same time to meet diversified residential needs. As for how the real estate industry will change to a new development model? Yao Jinbo, a representative of the National People's Congress and chairman and CEO of 58.com, said in an interview with the reporter that the "three major projects" will be implemented to meet the needs of new citizens and young people for better living quality, and take this as a starting point to build a new model of real estate development. In the future, real estate development will shift from the "old three highs" model to an upgrading model that pays more attention to the low-carbon development of the city and provides products and service quality that match the upgrading of residential needs. The first is to raise the demand for diversified and improved housingWith the increasing urbanization rate, the demand for housing in China has shifted from "home ownership" to "home ownership". In recent years, improving people's living conditions and environment has become the main direction of policy. This year's work report proposes to "meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified improved housing". Among them, the use of "diversification" as a modifier for "improved housing demand" is the first time, and it is also an important signal. "At present, the demand for improved housing is the main force of the market, and residents' requirements for housing quality are gradually improving to meet diversified needs in line with the market development situation. Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, told the reporter that this means that the understanding of the demand for improved housing has risen to a new height, and various localities may gradually optimize policies from the perspective of mining diversified improved housing demand. At that time, the first improvement, the second improvement, the improvement of housing quality and the improvement of location and other types of improvement customers are expected to receive policy support and release new demand space in the market. On this point, Qin Rongsheng, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a professor at the Beijing National Accounting Institute, also has a consensus. He said that the current real estate market has basically solved the problem of "whether it is good or not", and now it is necessary to focus on solving the problem of "whether it is good or not". Therefore, he suggested that the quality of housing should be improved in the core areas and suburbs with strong demand, and high-quality products should be used to meet the demand for mid-to-high-end improved housing. "Now the positioning and starting point of the demand for housing in various places are different, the purchase of a larger house, a better location, the old for the new and other similar diversified needs have their reasonableness, accurate research and judgment of local housing demand, is expected to become the focus of this year's further adjustment and optimization of housing purchase policies. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, told the reporter. In fact, there are already places that are ahead of the curve. At the beginning of this year, a number of first-tier cities have successively introduced targeted real estate optimization policies, such as Guangzhou to relax the purchase limit of units above 120 square meters, Shanghai to relax the purchase limit of single people outside the outer ring, etc., which can be described as a precise release of housing demand. Judging from the transaction data of hot spots in key cities, some regional markets are gradually recovering after the Spring Festival holiday. From the perspective of the industry, the policy side continues to release positive signals, such as a sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates, the issuance of housing purchase subsidies, the optimization of provident fund loan policies, and the steady implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, which will provide strong support for "promoting consumption". "The current policy environment tends to be relaxed, and the cost of housing for residents is lower than in the past, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of housing purchase. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, said that in the future, all localities still need to pay attention to resolving delivery risks, ensure the timely delivery of off-plan housing projects, pay attention to high-quality commercial housing, and work together at both ends of supply and demand to jointly boost market confidence. "Looking forward to the direction of policy optimization this year, there is a high probability that the purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will be cancelled or relaxed for subdivided demand. For example, in the past, most of the third- and fourth-tier cities issued relevant policies for trade-in, and from this year, such policies may also be implemented in first- and second-tier cities. Zhang Hongwei, the founder of Jingjian Consulting, told the reporter. It is worth noting that at a time when real estate demand is changing, the market actually contains new development opportunities. However, in the second half of real estate, developers should also be soberly aware that the weight of product power in the core competitiveness of enterprises is getting higher and higher. In this regard, Yao Jinbo said that in the future, commercial housing will return to commodity attributes, and the product power will be more improved. Whether it is a private real estate enterprise or a central state-owned enterprise, the construction of commercial housing must get out of the original standardized product routine. For example, abandon the national replication of several sets of house types and several community styles, start from the precise needs of home buyers, and synchronize with urban development. If we can't create better products that meet our needs, it will be difficult to perform well in the market in the future. Resolve real estate risksAt present, one of the important weights to release purchasing power is to prevent and resolve real estate risks, further stabilize expectations and boost confidence. It is not difficult to see from a careful study of this year's ** work report that in the part of "better coordinating development and security, effectively preventing and resolving risks in key areas", "insisting on promoting high-level security with high-quality development, ensuring high-quality development with high-level security, resolving risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions by treating both the symptoms and the root causes, and maintaining the overall stability of the economy and finance" has been placed in an important position. In the view of many industry insiders, this means that the current resolution of risks in the real estate field has been fully emphasized. In particular, the mention of "treating both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve real estate risks" and "providing equal support to the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems" demonstrates the confidence and strength of both security and development. "It is clear that the risk resolution must be 'both symptomatic and root-cause', which is the top priority of real estate work in 2024. Guan Rongxue told the reporter that this is a system engineering, which involves the whole body, and it is necessary to take more comprehensive and effective measures to promote the clearance of industry risks in an orderly manner. At present, the risks in the real estate sector are mainly concentrated in the debt resolution of real estate enterprises and the guaranteed delivery of projects, and accelerating the self-help of enterprises, debt restructuring of real estate enterprises, mergers and acquisitions, and bankruptcy reorganization are all important strategies to resolve risks. As far as the process of debt reduction is concerned, some real estate companies have taken a key step on the road to debt restructuring. Up to now, Sunac China, R&F Properties and other real estate companies have basically completed the restructuring or extension of domestic and foreign bonds; Logan Group, Fantasia, Country Garden and other real estate companies have basically completed the extension of domestic bonds. In the view of Liu Shui, director of corporate research at the China Index Research Institute, in 2024, more insurers will make significant progress in debt restructuring and accelerate the process of risk clearance. In this process, supporting reasonable financing is an important starting point to prevent risk contagion. "At present, the financial pressure of enterprises is relatively high, and it is still necessary to increase liquidity support. Chen Wenjing told the reporter that since the beginning of this year, the establishment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has been accelerated, and the "white list" of warehousing financing projects has reached about 6,000, which has a certain positive impact on the market. It is reported that in accordance with the principle of "building as much as possible" of the coordination mechanism, before March 15 this year, cities at and above the prefecture level should not only complete the "white list" push with high quality, but also coordinate and solve the difficult problems of the project with high efficiency. "The subsequent batch of 'white list' projects is expected to continue to expand, and the liquidity of some private enterprises will be improved. At the same time, with the gradual placement of funds, the construction of the project will be accelerated, and the positive impact on the market is expected to be further revealed. Chen Wenjing said that in the future, the financial support for enterprises will be further strengthened, such as the due diligence and exemption rules of financial institutions are expected to be gradually implemented, and more projects that encounter temporary difficulties in development and construction but can basically balance funds. The connotation of the new development model is gradually becoming clearerWith the gradual clearing of industry risks, the traditional business model driven by the high debt model will also be gone, and the new development model will be gradually deepened in continuous exploration, supporting the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry. In fact, since the 2021 ** Economic Work Conference first proposed that the real estate industry should "explore a new development model", building a new development model has become a key word in the second half of the development of real estate. In this year's work report, it is once again proposed to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. "From the initial 'exploration' to the promotion of the 'smooth transition' of the old and new models, and then to the 'accelerated construction', it shows that the connotation of the current new real estate development model has gradually become clear. Chen Wenjing said that from the perspective of the long-term development of the industry, improving the land and pre-sale systems is an important starting point for accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development. At the practical level, the promotion of the "three major projects" of urban village transformation, affordable housing and supporting measures for "flat and emergency use" is regarded by the industry as the key to building a new model of real estate development. "From the perspective of the foothold of the 'three major projects', accelerating the construction of affordable housing will effectively solve the problems of housing difficulties and expensive housing for groups such as migrants and new youth; Promoting the construction of 'peacetime and emergency' public infrastructure will solve residents' needs for housing supporting facilities such as residential safety and convenience; The transformation of urban villages is an important step in improving people's livelihood and urban appearance. Guan Rongxue believes that the construction of the "three major projects" can provide new impetus for the steady growth of the market. In fact, since the beginning of this year, many places have accelerated the transformation and development of the real estate industry. Taking Guangzhou as an example, in 2024, it plans to promote 494 urban renewal projects, complete the investment in fixed assets of 180 billion yuan, and prepare to build 10,000 units of affordable housing and 100,000 units of affordable rental housing. In this regard, Yao Jinbo believes that among the "three major projects", affordable housing and urban village renovation are closely related to the improvement of the "security + market" housing system, which is undoubtedly an important carrier for the orderly implementation of the new real estate model. However, in Yan Yuejin's view, adapting to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market is the key to the real estate industry to explore a new development model, and it needs to break through under this framework, which also echoes the needs of diversified housing. He said: "The development trend of new urbanization will bring many new changes and new needs, such as the evolution from population urbanization to education urbanization in the past two years, and the introduction of education industry into the new model of real estate development." Driven by new demand, real estate companies need to seize the opportunity to accelerate the pace of transformation to a new development model. In this regard, Liu Shui also told reporters that real estate companies need to change their business logic as soon as possible, from the single value creation based on the development and construction of heavy assets in the past, to the diversified value creation of development, operation and service. "Overall, efforts need to be made in three aspects. Liu Shui said that first, the business model of real estate enterprises should be transformed from "high debt, high leverage, and high turnover" to the integration of development, operation and service; Second, the profit model has transformed from incremental development profits to a comprehensive profit model of development, stock renewal and asset-light business; Third, the goal is to transform from the pursuit of rapid expansion of scale to the improvement of brand quality. As CICC said in a research report, the new development model contains five new directions for the development of real estate enterprises in the future: first, new commercial housing will gradually shift to focus on serving the needs of improvement; Second, affordable and market-oriented rental housing will become a blue ocean for development; Third, the comprehensive urban renewal capability will bring more opportunities to enterprises; Fourth, the volume of stock housing operation and transaction activities has gradually expanded; Fifth, the real estate financial service business has been developed in a more standardized manner. Everything is the same. At present, although China's real estate industry is in a period of transformation and adjustment, as a pillar industry of the national economy, the fundamentals of real estate have not changed for a long time, and the future is promising to embark on a new development model.
The steady and healthy development of real estate needs to be made in three directions
Wang Lixin's GDP growth target for 2024 is set at around 5%, showing the strong resilience of China's economic growth and confidence in future development. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry still needs to withstand the pressure in 2024 and actively take action to make greater contributions to stabilizing the national economy. In the author's view, under the pattern of adapting to the development trend of new urbanization and the change of supply and demand in the real estate market, treating both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve risks, meeting residents' rigid housing needs and diversified improved housing needs, and accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model will be the three major focuses of the development of the real estate industry in 2024, and they are also the key directions. Meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified improved housing, and bring more space for releasing demand. Under the task goal of "increasing the construction and supply of affordable housing and improving the basic system related to commercial housing", this year's work report also mentions meeting the "demand for diversified improved housing", and the first mention of "diversification" will bring more space for policy optimization and market stabilization. On the one hand, the identification and positioning of housing demand is often related to the direction, scale, and scope of the implementation of supportive policies, which toolboxes to use, and other details, and more importantly, to the effectiveness of policies after they are implemented. At present, the housing market demand has shifted from "whether there is" to "whether it is good or not" stage, starting from the current situation of urban population growth, improvement and renewal, residents have shown diversified demand for housing, which is a new market, which is worthy of real estate enterprises to develop new products and services, and anchor the new business model after breaking first. On the other hand, to meet the diversified and improved housing needs of residents, it is necessary to focus on the market, and all localities should still pay attention to the "city-specific policies" and make more fuss about the allocation of "people, housing, land and money", in order to achieve a virtuous circle of marketization. Treat both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve real estate risks, and bring greater certainty to improve the financing environment of the industry. At present, resolving real estate risks is the top priority of the work of "prudently handling hidden risks" in 2024, and supporting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination is an important force point. In terms of resolving the risks of real estate enterprises, the relevant departments have successively used tools such as the "16 Financial Measures", "Three Arrows", special real estate bailouts**, loan support plans for guaranteed delivery of buildings, and the financing "white list" system to gradually improve the financing environment of the industry. Since the beginning of this year, the urban financing coordination mechanism has accelerated its operation. According to the data reported by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, as of February 28, 276 cities in 31 provinces across the country have established urban financing coordination mechanisms, and a total of about 6,000 real estate projects have been proposed. It is not difficult to see that the transformation from the "white list" of corporate financing to the "white list" of project financing can be described as a "timely rain", which has become one of the main ways to support the financing of real estate enterprises, and will accelerate the process of clearing industry risks. First, commercial banks can more accurately identify the quality of projects and reduce credit risks. Secondly, it can solve the urgent needs of some projects, escort the delivery of buildings, and inject confidence into the long-term development of the market; Third, many projects under the insurance real estate enterprises have been shortlisted, which is expected to introduce precise drip irrigation of financing water to help return to the right track. Accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development and inject new momentum into the healthy development of the real estate market. Since the 2021 Economic Work Conference first proposed "exploring a new development model", the exploration of the new development model has continued to deepen in the past two years, and the connotation has gradually become clear. From the perspective of the long-term development of the industry, the reform of the pre-sale system, the improvement of the housing security system, the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, the reform of the land management system, and the improvement of the financial and taxation supporting system are important directions of the new real estate development model. At the practical level, the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages are important starting points for the implementation of the new model of real estate development, as well as a long-term mechanism and an important entry point for stabilizing the real estate market. If we start from the innovative development model of real estate enterprises, it is an important direction to focus on both light and heavy, and increase the layout of the operation and service business in the stock market is a new track and a new way out, and there is room for development in agent construction, property services, commercial operations, long-term rental apartments, etc. On the whole, in the second half of the real estate market, developers should focus on the subdivision of the track and the demand for high-quality residential services, and establish a full life cycle service model from development and construction to maintenance and use. In this way, it is also expected to inject stabilizers and new momentum into the healthy development of the real estate industry and related industrial chains. In general, as a pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry should work together to promote high-quality development. Looking forward to the future, urban development and services will never end, as long as we see the road ahead and forge ahead, the stable and healthy development of the industry can be expected.
* |Station cool Hailuo production |Zhou Wenrui