Based on the draft situation in recent years, the 2021 echelon is considered to be the strongest overall strength of the draft, but in the second year of the rookie, these young players have more or less encountered different situations, which once made us conjectures whether good or bad. By now, the echelon players of the class of 2021 have officially entered their third year of rookies, and among these players, some have not performed as expected, and some have broken through.
Based on the performance of this group of young players in their third year, combined with the growth trends of the past two years and the prospects for the future, we have redone the lottery rankings for the draft. personal opinions, rational discussions; It's just entertainment, don't take it seriously.
14th Pick:Trey Murphy.
The position at the end of the lottery is actually a bit difficult to choose, mainly because Trey Murphy has had a lot of injury problems this season. But his hidden attribute lies precisely here, and if Murphy can stay healthy, then he may be ranked higher; Second, the performance of other players in the same echelon is really worse than Murphy's performance in the previous year, such as Davion Mitchell, Grimes, etc., basically developing towards the 3D big lock type, and this season's team positioning has a downward trend, and Murphy naturally became the last person to break through.
Murphy is a explosive shooter, having played six games last season in which he played more than 20 minutes and scored under 5 points, as well as five shows in which he scored 30+ points. In contrast, most of the sluggish games occurred in the first half of the season, and the best games were mostly in the second half, and the overall trend was gradually improving.
It's just that when it comes to Murphy's future development, there are personal doubts that he belongs to the High Battery player, but it is likely that it will be difficult to get to the core of a tactical position like Ingram. The main thing is the technical problem, Murphy's current breakthrough is still in the initial stage of relying on the body, and on the whole he still lacks the ability to hold the ball, and there are few scoring means outside of shooting.
Although the position of modern basketball has been blurred, the most suitable position for Murphy's development at this stage is still the No. 3 small forward, who is too thin to maintain a confrontation at the penalty area, who is not excellent in holding the ball and is difficult to play as a team guard, and a 3D small forward with high lethality will be the most ideal target positioning at this stage.
13th Pick:Jonathan Kuminga:
Kuminga shone in the preseason, but by the regular season it seemed to be a bit of a knock-back to square one. But when you think about it, it's not a big deal. First of all, Kuminga's initial value was low enough that he would have had a long road to develop, and last season, the Warriors used him as a Wiggins-like alternative to him, allowing him to simply perform off-ball cut-and-shoot offense. The obvious increase in the load on the stadium naturally increases the technical requirements for the players. Therefore, for Kuminga's completely different form in the last two seasons, although it is not very good, it has not reached a level that needs to be questioned.
With Paul taking over the Warriors' bench, Kuminga can still see growth. His current situation is like a perfect blueprint for the future, some of which he may be able to do, and some of which he may not be able to do. The seemingly vast future may seem a bit murky, but one thing is for sure, Kuminga's player floor has already started to rise before, and it remains to be seen how far he can go.
If it is a year or two later, Kuminga's position in the same echelon is likely to be able to improve a little more. Although it is a half-finished product, his talent is gradually being realized, and the best result is that like Leonard when he played the role of sapper **Duncan, Kuminga can also become the pillar of the next generation of warriors after Ku Chai Tang.
12th Pick:Herbert Jones.
The Pelicans are one of three teams on our list with two people in the list, but unlike the other two teams, they each have two players with higher picks, while both of the Pelicans started outside the lotto zone. Herbert Jones was the only rookie in the rookie to make the lottery from the second round, but there was some personal concern that he had a tough first half of last season, and after February, his three-point shooting started to pick up and he played some good games at the end of the season. Overall, he hasn't improved much in his second year, especially after the start of the season, and there seems to be a bit of a tendency to return to the second half of last season, which is not good for his development.
As a player who makes a fortune on defense, especially considering that he is a key big lock that can target wing players, a good sense of defense, and the ability to steal and block while not losing position; On the offensive end, Jones is a bit of an all-encompassing type, but not a standout type, and improving his outside ability is a direct way for him to add space to the team's current roster. Some basic models have been seen in the second half of last season, but combined with this season's performance, the outside line is not his strong point after all, at least it is difficult to maintain a stable level for a long time.
The Pelicans chose to move Jones' position to the perimeter in order to let Jones play with Williamson, Ingram and others this season, but he is still essentially a frontcourt player, such as his breakthrough is mostly off-ball or fast-break transition, not a way for defenders to launch their own breakthroughs to destroy the opponent's defense. In short, Jones' defensive value is high enough, but his development will be difficult due to the team's position and individual style of play.
11th Pick:Jalen Suggs.
Suggs was one of the players in the first half of the tournament who had the biggest crisis in the first two seasons. When he first entered the league, the Magic put him at point guard, an uncomfortable position that didn't match his ability in college, averaging 44 assists but 31 turnover, the shooting percentage is dismal, the two-point shot and three-point shot are all at a level that cannot be seen, and in terms of high-level data, Suggs is a unique negative value contribution.
It wasn't until the following year that the Magic began to transform him, handing over the main control to Foltz and Cole Anthony on the bench, and Suggs's style of play began to favor shooting guards, which on the one hand eased Suggs's ball-handling pressure, and on the other hand, he was essentially a highly talented player who was able to strengthen his weaknesses and adjust his style of play in the game when he got time.
Coupled with his absolute physical advantage in the backcourt, Suggs's game form has gradually stabilized, although the playing time and points per game average of his rookie season are declining, but the shooting percentage has improved, and the three-point shot has gradually returned to the league average.
10th Pick:Austin Rivers.
Rivers rushed up from the undrafted area, and in the 6-10 spots, the difference between them may not be too big in the future, and they belong to the first ** or sixth man level that has already reached the standard. But Rivers' rookie wall phenomenon this season is still relatively obvious, otherwise his position could be higher in the first place.
Personally, I think it has something to do with him joining the U.S. team to play in the World Cup in the offseason, unlike other young players who face the same problems as other young players who have faced and solved these two problems last season.
Considering that he also has a good shot selection, Rivers shouldn't be in a slump in offensive efficiency for long. Instead, it is the work on the guard line, Rivers' ball-handling role needs some attention, and the reason why the Lakers were able to withstand the low tide of the first half of the schedule was that Rivers played a big role in sending the starters to withstand the bench. But in the playoffs, James is basically needed to maintain the operation of the system, Rivers, Russell and Dinwiddie are biased towards auxiliary roles, but this season the proportion of James' dominant tactics has decreased significantly, and this part of the work is still back in the hands of the guards.
Overall, Rivers is still learning to become the main player of the team, he has done well before, but he can't be stable for a long time, which is not the same as hitting the rookie wall, his skill finish is already very high, the player development process has gone ahead of many people, and he can do the work of most role players. Unless the team is asking for him to be a star player, which is really a difficult problem for him.
9th in line:Josh Giddey.
Last season's Giddey has obviously appeared in the rookie hit the wall, and the situation at the beginning of this season is still obvious, and there is even a more serious trend. But fortunately, there is not much of a problem, on the one hand, Giddey is young enough, which is always a plus; On the other hand, there are very few players of his all-round style, and the team is worth spending time on him to develop and develop, as long as the follow-up offensive touch is restored, other aspects will naturally improve.
And judging from Giddey's progressive form, the more players in this all-round way, the more important the bonus of game experience will be, so although there is a downward trend, his current offensive state is still to the extent that he needs to worry. In contrast, defense is the most difficult problem for him to overcome at this stage, which is not only his own ability, but also related to his style of play and team positioning. Although the Thunder have Holmgren on the inside this season, they are still a weak team in the restricted area as a whole, resulting in their inability to develop a very targeted defensive strategy in many cases, and all players need to fill in the holes on the inside, which will be a greater load for young players like Giddey.
The Thunder's current roster is in a delicate balance position, which is not a bad thing for Giddey's personal development, and he does not need to deliberately specialize in certain aspects of his ability for the time being; So far, Giddey has had a lot of growth, and although it has more to do with his age advantage and the team's environment, it doesn't hurt.
8th in line:Cameron Thomas.
Thomas' draft pick was No. 27 in the first round and he was among the players who rose from the late position. But combined with the current performance, it is a bit hesitant to clarify where to put him; If you only look at the performance of the third year, Thomas is fully worthy of the quality of the top five picks, he is the top player in the rookie class of players per game, but his current development style and positioning in the team is not too optimistic.
Combined with the game, Thomas's style of play is extremely biased, not only limited to three-point shots, but also a lot of mid-range shots; Comparatively speaking, his breakthrough finishing skills are not very good, his physical fitness is not outstanding among defenders, plus his defensive shortcomings. Such a player generally prefers the sixth man role of the team, but on the other hand, a player who is in the third year of his career already has the league's top scoring ability, which makes his future value higher than the current positioning limit given to him by the Nets.
Especially at the beginning of the season, when he was paired with Simmons, he was one of the few players on the Nets roster who could create a sense of coordination with Simmons. Simmons is good at all aspects but just doesn't shoot, and Thomas's favorite thing is shooting, and according to this model, if he can keep it all the time, it is worth looking forward to.
It's just that his position in the team is more awkward after all, even if the Nets sent away O'Neal's Dinwiddie in the trade, Thomas's starting position is still not stable enough, under the premise of a complete team lineup, Thomas still has to be sent to the second team, the only thing that changes, even if it is a substitute, Thomas's game proportion will still be much more than last season.
7th Pick:Jalen Johnson.
Jalen Johnson was the 20th pick in the first round of the same echelon, which is a position that is far below expectations. He was a drop-in draft pick in large part due to injuries and off-court issues, and by the time he began to cash in on his talent, he was well positioned to outperform his predecessors. Jalen Johnson has a relatively high team value this season, a tall winger with multiple shooting capabilities, defense and rebounding, and combined with his game performance, he definitely belongs to the higher position in the lottery in the redraft.
However, at his current level, there is still a gap between him and the top five picks. The main point is the ability to hold the ball, Jalen Johnson's technical side is not comprehensive and detailed, and many times he is still in a state of relying on physical talent to play. Coupled with the Hawks' slots, Trae Young and Murray in the backcourt, and Pogdan on the bench, it will be difficult for them to allocate extra balls to Jalen Johnson. Referring to John Collins' previous rotation from the core to the departure of the team, the Hawks basically have no room to develop the ball-handling ability of frontcourt players, which will greatly affect Jalen Johnson's promotion path.
Personally, I think that after the high-risk period of rookies in the first two years, no matter how the rookies of the same echelon are selected, Jalen Johnson's position will not be too low; But if he wants to move up, he'll need to work hard and have more opportunities, and for now, there's a good chance he's best suited to do something like Jirimi Grant or Tobias Harris.
6th Pick:Jalen Green.
Similar to our previous rhetoric, Jalen Green's progress has stalled a bit. That's true, but it's not about him, in short, the Rockets' first two bad seasons really wasted Green, causing him to really learn to read games and make reasonable shots until this season, regardless of his talent, even if he starts learning now, he won't necessarily fall behind the others. Even after a slump this season, we can still see the potential of talent at the star level.
However, two bad seasons weren't entirely bad, as Green's messy shot choices gave him a significantly better balance control over his body than his peers. A lot of long-distance defensive rounds seem to be too late, but Green is able to complete the role of assisting in the defense; Although the offense broke through the box too deep, there was still a way to put the basketball in the hoop. The team arranged another Van Vleet for him, although there was a certain conflict in the distribution of the ball, and there were not many pictures of the two directly partnering together, but Van Vleet's role existed to allow Green to get a chance to return the ball that Green couldn't attack, indirectly reducing some ineffective offensive rounds.
Although this season's statistics have declined compared to last season, considering the presence of ball carriers such as Shin Jing and VanVleet, Green's current progress is not bad. Especially after Coach Udoka arranged the correct and suitable court positioning for him, Green can at least do his job as the main scorer, and whether he can be promoted to the position of star player in the future depends on his follow-up efforts.
5th Pick:Alperen Shenjing.
Compared to Jalen Green, Shin Jing's biggest advantage is his adaptability. Since entering the league, he has maintained a steady improvement rate every season, and his scoring and shooting percentage have improved this season; According to Shen Jing's style of play, his hit rate will probably be limited to a relatively fixed range, not high, and not low.
The most rare point is that the new coach Uduka has made Shen Jing's ability to respond to be truly realized, and in the first two years of the competition, we can still see that Shen Jing has the ability to respond, but in fact it is still at a level where the risks outweigh the benefits; By the end of the season, his assist stats went straight from 2 in his rookie years6 times to 49 times, with an average of 2 turnovers per game6 times, which is already second only to Jokic and Sabonis in the same position, and even better than the two in turnover statistics.
Whether it's Jokic or Sabonis, they don't just need to look good on the numbers, but to be able to really lead the team to win; Not only is it an offensive strategy that you are good at, but you also need to make up for your own defensive shortcomings and avoid becoming a burden for the team. In contrast, Shin Kyung has done a much better job at this point, and now he only needs to maintain it for a long time, and the All-Star is not a distant thing for him.
In the next time, Shen Jing needs to do a good job of player load management, as well as free throw shooting percentage, as for the three-point part discussed by some fans, this part of the personal understanding is not in a hurry, first establish their own advantages, and then see how far they can do in this regard, and how much benefit the team can get. Wait until the team really starts to challenge for the playoffs, or when it encounters difficulties in the future, and then improve the situation, after all, Shin Kyung is only 21 years old at the moment, and he still has a long time to go.
4th Pick:Franz Wagner.
Wagner is one of the few rookies in this rookie class to be able to secure a future All-Star spot. The most surprising part was that although Wagner was the seventh overall pick in the draft, most people at the time thought that he was not a rookie and that he was already a player. Referring to the part that has been shown at this stage, I personally understand that the template for the future is the forward version of Pau Gasol, who uses excellent ball intelligence to drive the team's all-round offensive and defensive capabilities.
Compared to before, Wagner has regressed slightly this season, but his regression is not serious, but a short-term indigestion after eating more of the team's offensive tasks. Combined with the team's performance this season, almost all of the Magic's main lineup shooting percentage is not good, and it is completely dependent on rebounding and defensive quality to maintain the record. Among them, Wagner has the ability to change the team's system, and it is precisely because of the sluggish performance of his teammates around him that he will take on heavier tasks.
That's why we're putting Wagner first and foremost, and he's going through the process that every star has to go through to learn to lead his teammates out of adversity. As for him personally, as the hub of the Magic offense, there are no particularly obvious shortcomings in his personal skills; Although his singles ability is not good, thanks to his special understanding of the game, he is able to maintain an excellent level of individual independent attack scores.
3rd Pick:Evan Mobley.
For the rearrangement of this draft, it is basically divided into four grades, 11-14 are players who can adapt well to the league and have potential to be explored, and 6-10 are players who stand firm in the main rotation of each team, Shen Jing and Wagner belong to this bracket, and there is a high probability that they can become star levels. And in the top 3, in personal theory, it is already able to reach the level of a star, and Evan Mobley belongs to this level.
If you only look at the single-point defensive results, Mobley may not be the best, but he has a defensive area with almost no dead ends. When healthy, Mobley shoots in the top five defenses per game in the league, and of the few players ahead of him, only Embiid and Holmgren are better than him in limiting opponents' shooting percentage.
On the offensive end, Mobley has taken on more offensive duties due to the Cavaliers' injury problems at the start of the season, but his overall performance has been extremely consistent, with both good and bad phenomena. Overall, Mobley is really not good at this stage, compared to other centers, Mobley's shooting is more concentrated in the restricted area, but the shooting percentage is slightly less than ideal, which is the first problem he needs to overcome as soon as possible.
Other than that, Mobley's on-court skills seem to give a disjointed state. Judging from some games, Mobley actually has a good high playmaking and breakthrough ability with the ball, and even can see Adebayo's form at some moments, but he has not been able to maintain it for a long time at the moment. Referring to Mobley's performance in all aspects, it is difficult for us to rank him outside the future All-Star in the same environment, but there is one thing that the Cavaliers need to consider at present, how to shift the team's focus from the backcourt position to Mobley in the frontcourt.
2nd in line:Scott Barnes.
For the All-Star player, although Barnes is in the third year of his career, many people are still in the unknown stage of him. In short, there is no clear and suitable player template, referring to the personal style of play, Barnes's style of play is on the outside, and the scoring area this season is basically above the middle distance; In addition, his passing style is similar to that of a small defender, he likes to launch passes from the perimeter, not a way similar to that of a big man, and his distribution organization after breaking through is relatively limited. But he's another rebounding beast, and he's very good at rebounding on both ends of the floor.
To put it simply, Barnes did not develop a system of his own like a core like James, but rather split James's individual abilities. It looks like Barnes can do everything, but it's not quite possible to string it all together, and after scoring a little bit more, the organization performs a little bit more, and it's hard to do both.
So far, Barnes is averaging 20 points per game and 83 rebounds 61 assist, averaging 1In addition to 7 three-pointers, there is 13 steals and 15 blocks, just looking at this data sheet, you can hardly determine his future type, a completely unknown player. But one thing is for sure, this is a player worth developing, and the Raptors are gradually building a new system around him, from changing coaches to trading players, and the team is trying to give him a stable enough playing environment to make his own breakthroughs in the process.
No. 1 pick: Cade Cunningham
Although the Pistons' record this season is still terrible, Cunningham's stats are not so good, the shooting percentage is relatively low, and the defense is still the same. However, if we reschedule the 2021 draft, the champion will still choose Cade Cunningham, and to put it bluntly, his presence means much more to the team than any other player in the same echelon.
Considering the injuries, this season is actually supposed to be Cunningham's second season, with a year of injury recovery and a lot of games to be learned. His biggest problem is poor offensive efficiency, but there is a big blind spot in the team's starting lineup, where the Pistons put on a starting lineup that is not the best, but instead puts some high-quality puzzle pieces with independent offensive ability off the bench, which in turn causes Cunningham to often have too many problems in the starting lineup.
For the moment, Cunningham's most important thing is to improve his mistakes. As mentioned above, while some of his mistakes are to blame on the team, he is now averaging 3Six turnovers is ridiculously high. Judging from the content of the game, Cunningham has been looking for a way to connect the whole team, the rich offensive ** library is his foundation, and the overall shot ratio and shooting selection are not big problems, as long as the follow-up Pistons' team situation can be stabilized, his efficiency is bound to recover.
There is no doubt that Cunningham's team is definitely the worst team in the class of 2021, but Cunningham is the only one who is responsible for the Pistons, which is completely different from other players in the same echelon.