What happened in the real estate market in the past February? Now that you've put it together, let's take a look.
Real estate sales are down again
Real estate companies are ready for a protracted war
In February 2024, China's real estate market continued to be under pressure, and the overall operation remained low.
According to CRIC data, in February, the TOP100 real estate companies only achieved sales of 1858600 million yuan, a decrease of 20 from the previous month9%, a year-on-year decrease of 60%, and the scale of monthly performance continued to hit a new low in recent years.
In terms of cumulative performance, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 4209 from January to February100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 15 percentage points from January to 488%。
Recently, although the local policy level has been continuously optimized and released, the "four restrictions" of first-tier and some strong second-tier core cities have been relaxed. However, the current industry is still in the risk clearance period, market confidence and industry expectations will take time to repair, and it is expected that market supply and demand will not show obvious signs of warming in the short term.
From the project level, on the one hand, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch is low, and during the Spring Festival, many cities are 0**, and some sales offices in Jinan, Qingdao and other parts are directly on holiday. After the holiday, the volume of real estate companies rebounded slightly, but the overall situation was still at a low level. On the other hand, the visits and subscriptions of micro projects in most cities continued to decline, and only a few cities such as Xi'an and Hangzhou performed slightly better than the same period last year. In addition, the decentralization of improvement projects is better than rigid demand, especially the scarcity, sound supporting facilities, and better decentralization of school district improvement projects.
CRIC pointed out that supply and demand are expected to be restored in March, increasing month-on-month, but the year-on-year trend may continue to decline, and it is difficult to see a "small spring". If hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ronghao have sustained favorable policies introduced, the market may stop falling; Most of the remaining second- and third-tier cities may continue to build a bottom**, and the improvement and decentralization are better than the rigid demand.
The real estate "white list" landed quickly
276 cities have established real estate financing coordination mechanisms
On February 29, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly held a meeting on the work of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism.
The meeting disclosed that since January 5, the real estate financing coordination mechanism was established to February 28, 276 cities in 31 provinces across the country have established an urban financing coordination mechanism, a total of about 6,000 real estate projects, commercial banks quickly screened the project, and approved the loan of more than 200 billion yuan.
The meeting required that before March 15, cities at and above the prefecture level should establish a financing coordination mechanism, not only to complete the "white list" push with high quality, but also to coordinate and solve the difficult problems of the project with high efficiency. It is necessary to do a good job in project screening in strict accordance with the standards, and form the first batch of qualified projects after confirmation by financial institutions.
Financial institutions should expedite their reviews. In accordance with the closed-loop work of "push-feedback", financial institutions should timely feedback the problems existing in the project, and the urban financing coordination mechanism should solve them as soon as possible, and push them to financial institutions again after the project meets the conditions, so as to jointly promote the financing as soon as possible. The provincial financing coordination mechanism should supervise and guide the city's push projects, and urge the city to remove unqualified projects from the "white list" in a timely manner.
Positive signals
The willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land has recovered
Recently, Longfor has a total price of 5500 million yuan won a commercial and residential land in Xi'an Aerospace Base, equivalent to a floor price of 9,436 yuan. This should be the first time that Longfor has taken land in the country in the Year of the Dragon.
It is pointed out that Longfor's acquisition of land is a positive "signal", which is not only Longfor's confidence in its own development in 2024, but also a positive signal reflecting the camp of high-quality private real estate enterprises and the property market in core cities in 2024.
According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, from January to February 2024, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 enterprises was 157.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 306%, although the year-on-year growth rate has decreased from January, but the willingness to acquire land continues to recover.
The main reason for this is that in February, Beijing, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities auctioned land, and the amount of land transfer was relatively high, which raised the total amount of land acquired. In addition, since 2022, land acquisition by real estate companies has continued to be sluggish, and the land reserves of some enterprises are insufficient, and they urgently need to acquire land to supplement their land reserves.
Country Garden responded to the application for winding-up
The amount of information is huge
Recently, Country Garden's petition for liquidation has attracted market attention.
In response, Country Garden responded that the company had been informed that EverCredit Limited had filed a winding-up petition against the company with the High Court of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on February 27, 2024, involving an unpaid term loan with an unpaid term loan of approximately HK$1.6 billion in principal and accrued interest.
Country Garden said it would firmly oppose the petition and had initiated legal advice to take all necessary actions to defend the company's legal rights. The Company stresses that it does not currently expect the Petition to have a material impact on its ongoing restructuring plan or timeline. This incident reflects the current financial pressure faced by Country Garden, but the company has shown a positive attitude to deal with it.
Country Garden added that referring to the cases of other defaulting listed real estate companies in the industry, it is common for individual creditors to apply to the Hong Kong court for the winding-up of the company. At present, Country Garden's operations are normal, and it will continue to take delivery and operation as its main objectives, so as to protect the rights and interests of all stakeholders, including property owners, creditors, investors and employees, to the greatest extent.
The month-on-month decline in commercial residential sales** narrowed
On February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January.
In January, the sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 05%, a decrease of 04 percentage points. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai are **13% and 42%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 36% and 41%。The sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities increased by 0 year-on-year1% turned into a decrease of 04%。Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities** decreased by 2% year-on-year1%, a decrease of 03 percentage points.
In January, second-hand residential sales** in first-tier cities fell by 4% year-on-year9%, a decrease of 1 from the previous month4 percentage points, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell respectively. 1% and 52%。Second-hand residential sales** in second- and third-tier cities fell by 4 year-on-year4% and 45%, the decline was 04 and 03 percentage points.
In January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 53 and 70 cities saw year-on-year declines in sales of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing**, an increase of 5 and 1 respectively from the previous month.
Mortgage interest rate cuts more than expected
LPR over 5 years was lowered by 25 basis points
Recently, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce the latest loan market ** interest rate (LPR): 1-year LPR is 345%, unchanged, LPR for more than 5 years is 395%, down 25 basis points from the previous month. This is the second decline in LPR over 5 years since June 2023, and the largest decline in LPR history.
Since August 2019, the LPR of 5 years and above has been adjusted a total of 8 times, and the largest decline before that was 15BP, which occurred in May and August 2022, and the remaining 5 reductions were 5-10 basis points, so the 25BP reduction was the largest since the establishment of the LPR mechanism.
However, CRIC pointed out that on the whole, the sharp reduction of LPR for 5 years and above can accelerate the release of housing demand for some groups with clear willingness to buy homes, but for more potential home buyers, more policy combinations are needed. For example, tax and fee reductions, reduction of housing transaction taxes and fees, reduction of deed tax exemption for the purchase of the family's only house or improvement of housing, and shortening the period of VAT and individual income tax exemption for house purchases.
Combined with the statement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to "give local governments greater autonomy in regulation and control", and the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen gathered around the Spring Festival to relax the purchase restrictions, there is still significant room for the relaxation of the four restrictions in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu in the future.
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