In the decades since China's reform and opening up, the people have gone from providing food and clothing to accumulating wealth. The preservation and appreciation of assets has naturally become a necessary consideration at this stage or to reach the wealthy class. The investment methods range from **bonds** to real estate**, and the equity investment and art investment that exploded 20 years ago seem to have been reincarnated in China. Now which assets are suitable?
Thirty years in Hedong and thirty years in Hexi, this sentence is the most suitable in the investment community, but thirty years should be changed to three years, and a large number of investors behind these investment managers, ** people, and institutions, including **, are also like roller coasters, ebb and flow, naked swimming and hitting the reef. Most of the tide makers at that time, a very small number of Mingjin troops successfully landed, and most of the investors fell into the sand and were drowned in the tide of investment. Looking back on the investment process in the past few decades, people have talked about investment and changed color, there are discouraged and lazy, and there are also those who have been in the past to persuade cherish life and stay away from investment.
Why can't I always catch the trip?
Between 2001-2005 I bought six commercial homes and sold them around 2016. I remember the cheapest one was more than 1,000 yuan, and the most expensive one was 2,880 yuan near the river. When you see this, you must say, then you must have made a lot of money. I earned it, but this time making money became a lesson for my whole life, why?
One. At that time, they were all bought in second-tier cities. After ten years, the value of second-tier houses increased by six times, and the value of houses in Beijing increased by more than ten times. Counting the doubling base, the second-tier cities are six times the 1,000 yuan, and the Beijing is more than a few thousand yuan.
Second. At that time, I bought a house in full, but I calculated that the interest was too bad, anyway, I had spare money in hand, so why should I pay the interest in vain? But what if you can pay for six properties in Beijing in installments?
This return on investment, a house (calculated according to 120 square meters) earns millions less, and half of the small goal of several houses is gone.
Things are in the past, but why this is the case is worth pondering.
1. Without referring to history, when the per capita GDP reached 3,000 US dollars, developed countries around the world have gone through the process of real estate market prosperity, such as New York, Tokyo, Frankfurt, and London. The same is true for China, which reached the $3,000 per capita mark in 2006.
2. Without data research, the rise and prosperity of the real estate market must be the earliest and fastest rise in the egg yolk area (first-tier cities), followed by the urban areas that are not central cities but are economically active.
3. Lack of investment concept, one of the main reasons for not buying Beijing at that time was "useless", not living and working in Beijing, what to buy for?The general public is basically this kind of pragmatism.
4. I haven't spent a lot of money, I'm used to counting in dimes, and I feel expensive and not worth it when I spend a piece. The house in Beijing is thousands of yuan a square meter more expensive than ours, which is just nonsense. Now I know that good assets are never cheap. This also explains the reason why "leakage" is often deceived.
The last one is the lack of guidance from masters around you, the circle of friends is very important, and it is very important to socialize upward!
Let's make a quick comparison.
For investment income comparison, we usually set several quantitatives to make a relatively fair comparison. We set a 10-year investment cycle, 1 million RMB into the investment, and calculate the best return on investment (assuming the investment is successful and gets the best return). Equity, bonds, real estate, physical objects, and works of art are used as investment targets for the judgment of the judges.
1. The entry threshold, from the perspective of the difficulty of investment entry, **bonds, physical goods**, and real estate are the easiest, and there are many channels to enter, which can basically be bought if you have money. Equity and art are difficult, and investing in a company's equity requires not only capital but also qualifications, so why is it difficult to invest in art?Isn't the street full of people selling calligraphy and paintings?Even the lobby of a certain hotel and a certain scenic spot have a sale of calligraphy and paintingsThe truth is that none of those are works of art, let alone works of art with investment value. Globally, less than 5% of the total artwork is an asset. We will elaborate on this in "12 Dimensions of Measuring the Investment Value of Art". Therefore, both equity investment and art investment require investors to have certain professional knowledge, industry contacts and mature investment concepts, and the threshold is very high.
2. Income mode, investment income, relying on corporate dividends and stock prices, shorting arbitrage, bonds relying on interest dividends, real estate relying on rent and housing prices, relying on gold price appreciation, equity investment relying on dividends and premiums, and art relying on its own appreciation to make profits.
3. Liquidity, liquidity here can refer to the convenience of exiting, that is, whether it is easy to exit. **It is the easiest to exit, ready to buy and sell. The second is real estate, I believe that everyone has more than one set of real estate, and they will also feel it. The most difficult thing is equity, if the invested company is successfully listed on the main board, the original ** you hold can be freely bought and sold after a limited period of time, but if it is not listed, then the equity ** is very difficult. There are many people who have enough art in their hands and find it difficult to sell, or sell at a loss when the economy is down, but why isn't it the hardest? It is still a matter of the artwork itself, in a global perspective, there is almost nothing that a good artwork cannot sell. Local food stamps themselves cannot be circulated nationwide.
4. Risk coefficient, the first consideration of investment is risk rather than return. Safety and value preservation.
First, the appreciation premium is secondary. The riskiest of these are equity investments and ** investments, with losses of 50% or even total annihilation, and their risks come from factors that you can't control or even know. The safest is ** and bonds, real estate in the first 20 years is a steady happiness, after 2018 to the future is likely to be the egg yolk area safe and slow appreciation, eggshell area plus rental income is also 100% loss. Good works of art are value-added from ancient times to the present, from the West to the East, regardless of time, and belong to a stable investment. Of course, it is the good, genuine work of art that has been repeatedly emphasized.
5. Rate of return, investment is to hope that assets will appreciate, and spending money to buy things and continue to spend money for it is called consumption, such as cars; If you spend money to buy it, you can't get it back, it's called collecting; If you spend money to buy ** and sell it, it is called investment success, and if you lose money, it is called investment failure. We use a 10-year investment cycle.
*。In 2013, it was not listed on the stock exchange**211598 points, today it is 2865 points. Buy the index for a 10-year return of 35%. Do you feel less? Then we are the god of Buffett, the annualized rate of 25%, which is not low, the problem is that it lasts for ten years is 25 times. 1 million becomes 3.5 million.
Bond. Simple, calculated at an annualized rate of 5%, 1 million becomes 1.5 million in ten years.
Estate. Taking Beijing as an example, in 2013 it was 40,085 yuan per square meter, and now it is 48,087 yuan. Taking the Wangjing area as an example, in 2013 it was about 60,000, and now it is about 70,000. Someone said that Wangjing was a few thousand years old, and the highest was 80,000, isn't this ten times as much? Well, if you can both step on the lowest and highest points, what else can I say?
*。Ten years ago, it was 28066 per gram, now 44966 yuan per gram. 10% return on investment.
Equity investment. It's hard to calculate, because it's too much to vote 100 into one. And the return on investment is not the same at any stage. Let's take a look at the best investment examples.
Alibaba, the most successful company in the past decade, has a return on capital increased (ROC (ROIC) 10-year median) of 699 per year. That is to say, assuming an investment of 1 million, a profit of 69 in ten years90,000 yuan. Some people say, didn't Son make a lot of money through Alibaba? Yes, but that's the venture capital stage, and 1 million is not accepted.
Artwork. The overall art market is greatly affected by economic fluctuations, such as the global economic downturn from the mask period to the present, and the art market has also been affected. But the art industry is special, we have made 13 years of investment, but also integrated the global 200 years of data analysis of ups and downs, there is basically a big rule, buy and sell within three years is to lose money (high handling fee channel fees), double in five years, triple in ten years, and generally 1-5 times the income per year after ten years.
If we don't take the officials seriously, don't raise the bar. Investing behavior is a complex process that is influenced by changes in many external factors, including human nature and morality. We just set a quantitative amount to make a rough calculation, and all the data comes from the statistics bureau. I just hope that everyone will have a sober judgment. We also do not make any investment advice and are certainly not responsible for your results.