With the advent of 2024, the intensification of market volatility has made many investors feel deeply confused.
a
As soon as there is a stir in the market, I seem to "get hurt" because of meThe investment industry is too concentratedFinish!
Too heavyI want to cover my position but I don't have enough power.
B
C
There are too many equity assets, the market goes up and down, and I want to cut the meat.
I'm sensitive to fluctuationsI only bought a few bonds**What should I do if I miss the opportunity in the market outlook?
Ding
From their conversations, it is not difficult to find the crux of the problem:
Over-concentration of investments may carry a higher level of risk while proceedingReasonable configuration, may be a good medicine to relieve investment anxiety.
one
Why do you need to do configuration
Nobel laureate economist Markowitz once said:Asset allocation is the only free lunch in the investment market
This is because asset allocation can take advantage of the incomplete correlation between different assets to achieve the purpose of risk diversification, smoothing volatility and maximizing returns.
Allocate risk
Diversification of risk does not mean casually buying a little east and west, but by observing different assetsRelevanceto judge.
To put it simply, the higher the correlation value (closer to 1), the more consistent the trend of the two assets is, and the more obvious is that the rise and fall are more synchronized; Conversely, the lower the correlation (closer to 0 or even negative), it means that the direction of the two assets is not converging, or even opposite, such as one up and one down.
Correlation coefficient between major asset classes in the past decade
Data**: wind, statistical period: 20141.26-2024.1.25. The money market ** index (885009WI) stands for cash, CSI Total Bond Index (H11001CSI) stands for Bonds, Wind All A (881001wi) stands for **.
For large types of assets, from the perspective of the past 10 years:
*Negatively correlated with bonds, with a seesaw effect.
Cash assets, represented by money market ** indexes, have a low correlation with stocks and bonds.
The core of the configuration is:Find those investments that have low relevanceThrough portfolio investment, stable income shares investment risks. Because the trend of each variety is difficult to **, compared to "betting" on a single asset,Portfolio investments are more likely to take advantage of opportunities in volatile marketsand become a "victorious general".
Smooth fluctuations
Let's look back at **, sometimes,"Defense" is more important than "offense".
Due to the existence of the seesaw of stocks and bonds, bonds, as the "ballast stone" in asset allocation, can be balanced with equity products, which not only improves the stability of the account, but also increases the income under the premise of controllable risks.
Comparing the return curves of portfolios with different stock and bond allocations in the past 10 years, it is not difficult to find that compared with investing all funds in ** (CSI 300) or bonds (CSI Total Bond).The combination of the two is able to effectively smooth out the fluctuations, and the drawdown of the entire portfolio is also significantly reduced
Therefore,Don't put all your eggs in the same basketThrough diversification, investors' psychological fluctuations can be stabilized with the smoothing of the yield curve, which greatly reduces investment anxiety, and stable performance can bring a "thin stream of long-term flow" base experience.
II. II. II
How to do the configuration
So, when we realize that we need to configure **, what should we do?
Define your investment goals
* Configuration, first of allSet your own investment goals and be clear about your risk appetite
Mistake example: Set a small goal, I will earn 1 million first!
Correct example: I tested my risk appetite is aggressive, and this time I plan to invest 200,000 yuan to buy **, of which 100,000 yuan to buy xx** type**, with an annualized target of about 6% in three years; Another 60,000 yuan to buy xx fixed income + ** target three-year annualized rate of about 4%; The remaining 40,000 yuan is used to buy currency** to cope with events such as increasing positions and living needs.
In other words, when setting goals, try to be "concrete" andAdhere to four principles:Combine your own risk-return appetite with a term realistic and relatively refined.
Make an allocation of funds
* There is no single correct answer to allocation, different income levels, age structure, risk appetite, etc. all determine the investment purpose and the appropriate asset allocation method is different.
The first thing to determine is: how much money you have and how long you are going to invest each one.
The above is an example only and does not constitute specific investment advice.
The shorter the money you want to use, the more you have to put it in relatively low-risk varieties.
For varieties with relatively high risks, you can invest money that you don't use for a long time.
Clarify the risk-return characteristics of **
After determining the investment objectives and making a rough division of the money in hand, the next step is to consider what type of ** to choose, and what their past risk-return characteristics are, please see the table below.
Data**: wind, wind classification, yield is ordinary yield, period is weekly, statistical period: 20141.26-2024.1.25。The above *** and risk levels only refer to the usual situation, subject to the specific ** contract and other issuance materials shall prevail, and the historical performance of the index does not predict future performance, nor does it represent the performance of specific ** products.
By comparing the return and risk indicators of different types of indices over the past 10 years, it can be found that:
Currency** and pure debt**Do not invest in the ** market, thusThe risk and volatility are low, and the main focus is "stable".The maximum drawdown in the past 10 years is less than -3%, and the annualized volatility is also controlled within 2%, which is much lower than that of mixed debt base and equity**; However, risks and returns go hand in hand, and their overall level of return is not too high;
**Type**The maximum drawdown, annualized volatility is comparable to that of the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index, but fromThe long-term performance is better in terms of ups and downs and annualized returns, reaching 77 respectively93% and 609%。
It belongs to the category of "mixing and matching" of stocks and bondsHybrid Debt Base and Partial Debt Hybrid**ofRisk and benefit trade-off, both in terms of long-term performance and control of drawdown, it is significantly better than mainstream indices such as CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index.
Three
Is now a good time to configure?
Let's take a look at where the market is running.
First, look at the points.
Since the beginning of 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 2,900 points, and if the "water level" of the index is evaluated by "points", it can be seen from the trend chart of the Shanghai Composite Index since the base periodA-shares at 2,900 points are in historically low territory
Since the first time it stood above 2,900 points, the time spent below 2,900 points by the Shanghai Composite Index was less than the time that the Shanghai Composite Index stayed above 2,900 points; Especially since 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index has limited room to continue to ** after falling below 2,900 points each time.
Data**: wind, statistical interval: 199012.19-2024.1.16. Historical performance of the index is not indicative of future performance.
Second, look at valuations.
After nearly three years of downturn, the valuation of mainstream broad-based indicesIt has all fallen back to the level of "cheap".。In terms of P/E ratio, the latest P/E ratio of the broad-based index is at a low position in the past decade, and the current PE quantile of the ChiNext index is 004%, which means that it has almost hit a record low in the last decade. (Data**: Wind, as of 2024.)1.28）
Finally, look at the cost performance of stocks and bonds.
The price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is an indicator commonly used to measure the relative risk premium of **bonds, and "mean + -2 times standard deviation" is an important observation point. At present, the CSI 300 is about to hit the "upper limit of 2 times standard deviation", and the ChiNext index has pierced the "upper limit of 2 times standard deviation", indicating that the bottom signal of A-shares may have appeared. (Data**: Wind, as of 2024.)1.12）
To sum up, it seems that at present, the ** market is in oneRelatively close to the bottomlocation.
Four
Configured policies
In practice, it can be adopted"Debt Defense + Stock Attack".The idea is to deal with market fluctuations, and the proportion of stocks and bonds is adjusted according to its own risk appetite.
Dumbbell investment strategy
The dumbbell asset allocation strategy embodies the idea of diversification, which gets its name from its dumbbell-like shape, i.e., investing more in the two extremes and less in the middle.
The above is an example only and does not constitute specific investment advice.
It can be used to implement specific investment strategiesHigh** (e.g. 90%)Allocate low-risk targets with high certainty, and at the same time to:Low** (e.g. 10%)Invest in highly elastic and high-odds targets.
High configurationVarieties with less volatility risk: such as currency**, interbank certificates of deposit**, short-term bonds**;
Low configurationHigh volatility and high elasticity varieties: such as small and medium-cap style broad-based index**, **type of some popular tracks**.
Equity and debt balanceStrategy
According to a certain proportion, the reasonable allocation of equity assets and fixed income assets, such as "50% shares + 50% bonds", and regularly adjust in the process of market fluctuations to keep the proportion of the two fixed, is also a common strategy in the allocation.
*: wind, backtesting period 200412.31-2022.12.31。The backtest takes the CSI 300 Index as the representative of ** assets, and the CSI Total Bond Index as the representative of bond assets, which has been invested since December 31, 2004, and the initial ** ratio is stock: debt = 50%: 50%, and dynamic rebalancing is carried out at the end of each year; Annualized rate of return = (1 + total rate of return) (1 total number of years of backtesting)-1;The proportion of positive annual return is the number of years in which the strategy has achieved positive return Total backtesting years. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Through backtesting, it is not difficult to find that this strategy works:
Rebalancing at the end of each year is critical, not only the annualized rate of return from "lying still" to 64%Increased to 93%, the largest decline for the whole year also decreased significantly;
After an annual rebalancing, the strategy was achievedThe total rate of return, while the proportion of positive annual returns and the annual minimum rate of return have improved significantlyIt's easier to "hold."
Conclusion
In today's increasingly volatile market, compared with betting on a single type of account, a variety of types of accounts can improve the "anti-fragility" in an uncertain environment, making it easier for us to enjoy the compound interest of time and obtain satisfactory long-term returns.
Risk Warning:
1.The indices and information mentioned above do not constitute investment advice. All information in this material is current as of the date of publication, and the latest information shall prevail if subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
2.**The Manager does not guarantee profitability and does not guarantee a minimum return.
3.Before investing in this product, investors should carefully read the "Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of this company, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgments and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently assume investment risks.
4.Past performance of the Index is not indicative of its future performance, and performance of other indicators managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the Index.
5.The manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's responsibility" in investment, and after investors make investment decisions, investors are responsible for the investment risks caused by fluctuations in operating conditions, share listing and trading, and changes in net value.
6.The registration of this ** by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made a substantive judgment or guarantee on the investment value, market prospects and returns of this **, nor does it indicate that there is no risk in investing in this **.
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