Following the 1 trillion yuan anti-epidemic special treasury bonds, this year's work report made it clear that starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which will be used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year.
A new round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has aroused heated discussions in the market. For example, why do we need to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds? What is so special about this special national debt? Where will the 1 trillion yuan be invested this year? What will be the impact of ultra-long-term special government bonds?
Special initiatives under new challenges.
To cover the fiscal deficit, China will issue ordinary government bonds, but special government bond issuance is relatively rare, for example, in 2020, in response to the impact of the epidemic, China issued 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds.
Yuan Haixia, executive director of China Chengxin International Research Institute, told reporters that from a historical point of view, China has launched a series of special treasury bonds in response to challenges and risks in special periods, including long-term construction treasury bonds, special treasury bonds, etc., among which special treasury bonds, as a special tool in special periods, are specially used to serve specific policies and support specific project needs, and play an important role in stabilizing the financial market and macroeconomy.
So why is China issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds continuously this year? What is its background?
At the press conference on the economic theme of the second session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 6, Zheng Shajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, responded that from the background of the introduction, this is an inevitable requirement to respond to profound changes in the international environment and firmly grasp the initiative of development, and it is also a practical need to coordinate development and security and solidly promote high-quality development. We must concentrate our efforts, intensify our efforts, and continue to work hard for a long time, so as to lay a solid foundation for accelerating the promotion of Chinese-style modernization and realizing the second centenary goal as scheduled.
*Wen Laicheng, a professor at the University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that China's economic and social development is facing new challenges after the epidemic, such as insufficient domestic effective demand, weak social expectations, low enthusiasm for private investment, and the external environment is also complex and severe. This situation was relatively rare in the past, and it was necessary to overcome this difficult situation by special measures such as the issuance of special government bonds.
According to the work report and other data, China's economy is expected to grow by about 5% this year, while the year-on-year growth rate of the national general public budget revenue and the national budget revenue is expected to be 33% and 01%, which is significantly lower than the economic growth rate. In order to achieve this year's economic goals, it is necessary to moderately expand the ** debt in addition to the fiscal revenue, but in the context of the large contradiction between local fiscal revenue and expenditure and the relatively heavy debt burden, the issuance of special treasury bonds for several consecutive years has also become a pragmatic choice.
Compared with overseas economies such as the United States and Japan, China's first sector, especially the first sector, has more room for leverage, and increasing macroeconomic control through the issuance of special treasury bonds is conducive to further optimizing the debt structure of the central government. According to our estimates, the proportion of *** debt balance in ** debt balance in 2024 may increase by 07 percentage points to 431%。* Leveraging to support project construction is conducive to alleviating local financial pressure, reducing macro debt costs, and reducing the overall debt interest payment pressure of ** departments. Yuan Haixia said.
Excluding the deficit, focus on these areas.
Unlike ordinary treasury bonds, which are included in the general public budget ledger and included in the fiscal deficit, special treasury bonds are included in the ledger and are not included in the fiscal deficit.
According to the budget report, this year's 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be included in the ** income and will not be included in the fiscal deficit.
As an unconventional fiscal instrument, one of the main characteristics of special treasury bonds is that their revenues and expenditures are included in the management of the budget and are not included in the fiscal deficit. Feng Lin, director of the research and development department of Oriental Jincheng, told Yicai.
Zheng Chunrong, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that the special treasury bonds are listed in the special treasury bonds, and the special funds are earmarked, and there are special arrangements for debt repayment, which can reduce the pressure on the annual debt interest expenses within the budget.
Under the circumstance that this year's budget deficit rate is conservatively arranged at about 3 percent, the issuance of trillion-yuan special treasury bonds has become an important point of active fiscal development, taking into account the needs of development and fiscal sustainability, and also increasing flexibility and space for future macroeconomic regulation and control. Yuan Haixia said.
As the name suggests, special treasury bonds have a special purpose, and this year's 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds will be earmarked for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas.
Zheng Shajie introduced at the above meeting that from the main investment direction of this year's 1 trillion yuan special treasury bonds, in accordance with the principles of problem-oriented, precise breakthroughs, system integration, coordination and efficiency, focus on major and difficult matters in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation. Preliminary considerations, we will focus on supporting the construction of scientific and technological innovation, urban-rural integrated development, regional coordinated development, food and energy security, and high-quality population development. The potential construction needs in these areas are huge, the investment cycle is long, and the existing funding channels are difficult to fully meet the requirements, so it is urgent to increase support.
Wu Zhiwu, senior director of the R&D department of CSI Pengyuan, told Yicai that the local government is planning to reserve ultra-long-term special treasury bond projects in the near future, and its main support direction is food security, energy security, industrial chain security, new urbanization, rural revitalization and other fields, which are obviously related to the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation. However, due to the low level of income generated by these projects, the investment is more, and the local government has no time to take into account the existence of many factors such as focusing on the construction of municipal infrastructure, resulting in less investment. Nowadays, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support these major projects can solve the problem of funding gap for these projects to a certain extent, and at the same time, by transferring funds to local governments, it is also conducive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of local governments.
According to this year's budget report, the 2024 budget will generate 6,153 revenue from local transfers4.8 billion yuan, which is much higher than in 2023 (89.3 billion yuan).
Shi Zhengwen, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, told reporters that this means that part of this year's 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds will be used by local governments through transfer payments. Of course, because the funds invested in major national strategies and key areas of security will involve national projects and are related to the financial powers, a considerable proportion of the funds of some special treasury bonds will be used by the national finance, and may not be all given to the local government.
Feng Lin said that referring to the 1 trillion yuan anti-epidemic special treasury bond in 2020, it is divided into two parts from the perspective of the use of funds. The first is 700 billion yuan for local infrastructure construction and anti-epidemic related expenditures, which are distributed to the local government through first-class transfer payments, and the principal is repaid by the local finance, but the interest is borne by the first-class finance. The second is the 300 billion yuan used to subsidize local epidemic prevention and control expenditures, which will be transferred from the first-class budget to the general public budget for use, included in the special transfer payment, and the principal and interest will be borne by the first-class finance.
We judge that the 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds planned to be issued this year will most likely be issued to local governments through transfer payments, and the specific path and method of repayment of principal and interest may refer to the special anti-epidemic treasury bonds, depending on the specific use of the funds. Feng Lin said.
Unlike previous special government bonds, this special government bond emphasizes "ultra-long-term". In 2020, the maturity of the special anti-epidemic treasury bonds is 10 years; In 1998, special treasury bonds were issued to replenish the capital of the four major commercial banks, with a maturity of 30 years.
Feng Lin said that ultra-long-term means that the issuance period is not less than 10 years, and the longest can be 50 years, and it is estimated that it will be mainly 30 years.
Yuan Haixia believes that the construction and operation period of major projects may be longer, in order to better match the financing needs of projects and improve the efficiency of capital use, this round of special treasury bonds emphasizes "ultra-long-term", and the issuance period will be significantly increased compared with previous rounds of special treasury bonds, and the overall focus is more on ultra-long-term varieties of 15 years and above, and major projects may be matched with special treasury bonds with a maturity of 30 years and 50 years, which is conducive to alleviating the pressure of short-term debt repayment and enhancing the guarantee capacity of long-term projects.
Zheng Chunrong said that from the perspective of the purpose of expenditure, major strategic projects and security construction in key areas are related to the well-being of several generations, and there must be a long return on investment period.
Affects geometry. In the next few years, the impact of the continuous issuance of trillion-level special treasury bonds has attracted much attention.
Zheng Shajie said that starting from this year, the next few years will continue to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas. In other words, it can not only stimulate current investment and consumption, but also lay the foundation for long-term high-quality development.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Kaifeng, believes that the issuance of special treasury bonds will help expand aggregate demand, optimize the supply structure, improve the efficiency of economic operation, and increase the potential growth rate of China's economy. At the same time, the issuance of special treasury bonds has optimized the debt structure and reduced debt risks. **The cost of bond issuance is lower than that of local governments, the cycle is longer, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have formed high-quality assets, and more importantly, the risks caused by local reinforcements have been avoided, making room for local finances.
Feng Lin believes that the issuance of special treasury bonds can not only play a role in stimulating investment and stabilizing the economy in the short term, indicating that the current policy focus is still to stabilize investment, and at the same time, in the medium and long term, it will also help promote the dynamic balance and benign interaction of development and security, and consolidate the foundation for long-term high-quality development. It is suggested that the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the later period can be flexibly adjusted according to the actual situation, so as to effectively play the role of expanding domestic demand, adjusting the structure, and stabilizing growth.
Since the beginning of this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which has laid a positive fiscal tone for the next few years, ensured the continuity of policies, helped boost market confidence, stabilized expectations, and continued to provide assistance for optimizing the debt structure of the central government and local governments and reducing the pressure on local expenditures. At the same time, the capital demand for major projects is large, but the public welfare attribute is strong, and the participation of market-oriented funds is insufficient, so the regular issuance of special treasury bonds will provide sufficient and continuous financial support for key projects, and better match the capital demand by extending the maturity. Yuan Haixia said.
From the perspective of work arrangements, Zheng Shajie said that the state is working with relevant parties to formulate a specific action plan and start implementation after submitting it for approval according to the procedures. We will use reform methods and market-oriented measures to coordinate investment and soft system construction, grasp the construction of key projects on the one hand, strengthen the supervision of projects and funds, promote the introduction and implementation of supporting policies on the other, strengthen the tracking and implementation of policies, and promote the implementation of this major measure with high quality.
Editor-in-charge: Tao Jiyan |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*: CBN).