Author丨Li Yumin.
Editor丨Zeng Fang.
On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing.
According to the first work report made at the meeting, China's economy will generally rebound in 2023. GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 52. The growth rate ranks among the top of the world's major economies
However, the report also pointed out that "China's economy is developing in waves and zigzags, with the decline in external demand and insufficient domestic demand, cyclical and structural problems coexist, and the risks and hidden dangers of real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions in some places are prominent."
This year marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and a crucial year for achieving the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The expected goals proposed in this year's ** work report are:GDP growth of around 5; More than 12 million new jobs were created in urban areas, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 55 or so; Household consumption** increased by about 3; Household income growth and economic growth are synchronized; The balance of payments remained basically balanced; grain output of more than 3 trillion catties; Energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by 25. The quality of the ecological environment continued to improve
*The work report explains that the above-mentioned expected goals take into account the domestic and foreign situation and various factors, and take into account the needs and possibilities. The expected target for economic growth is about 5, which takes into account the needs of promoting employment and income, preventing and resolving risks, and is in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of basically realizing modernization, and also considers the economic growth potential and supporting conditions, reflecting the requirements of being proactive and promising.
This year, we will continue to adhere to a proactive fiscal policy, and make it clear that we must make appropriate efforts to improve quality and efficiency. Comprehensively consider development needs and fiscal sustainability, make good use of fiscal policy space, and optimize the mix of policy tools. The deficit ratio is planned to be arranged according to 3, and the deficit size is 406 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan over the budget at the beginning of the previous year. It is expected that fiscal revenue will continue to resume growth this year, and the scale of general public budget expenditure will be added to the transfer of funds28.5 trillion yuan, an increase over the previous year1.1 trillionYuan. It is planned to arrange local ** special bonds3.9 trillion yuan, an increase over the previous year100 billion yuan
This year, in order to systematically solve the problem of funding for the construction of some major projects in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting this year, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year.
*The work report proposes that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective。Maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the amount of money with the expected targets of economic growth and the highest level。Strengthen the dual adjustment of aggregate volume and structure, revitalize stocks, improve efficiency, and increase support for major strategies, key areas and weak links. Promote the steady decline of comprehensive social financing costs, smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and avoid the idling of capital precipitation. Enhance the intrinsic stability of the capital market. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Vigorously develop science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. Optimize supporting measures such as financing credit enhancement, risk sharing, and information sharing, to better meet the financing needs of small, medium and micro enterprises
In terms of the first work tasks in 2024, it is proposed to better coordinate development and security, and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Adhere to high-quality development to promote high-level security, ensure high-quality development with high-level security, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, resolve risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, and maintain overall economic and financial stability.
In terms of risk disposal, ** work report requirements"Improve the overall coordination mechanism for the disposal of major risks, consolidate the main responsibilities of enterprises, departmental supervision responsibilities, and local territorial responsibilities, improve the efficiency of disposal, and firmly guard the bottom line of no systemic risks. "Optimize the real estate policy, and support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Coordinate the resolution and stable development of local debt risks, further implement the package of debt reduction plans, properly resolve the risks of existing debts, and strictly prevent the risks of new debts. Steadily promote the risk management of small and medium-sized financial institutions in some places. Crack down on illegal financial activities.
sfc
Editor: Zhong Hailing, Intern: Liao Jiayi.
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*The minimalist version of the work report is here.
GDP growth of about 5%! A quick overview of the main expected development goals in 2024.
Number Reading ** Work Report: The 2023 Economic and Social Development Report Card is here.