China's ability breakthrough and complete industrial chain in the field of new energy vehicle products and complex technologies have made Western countries lose the corresponding leading power in the industrial field, thanks to which, China's voice and contribution in the global automotive international standards and regulations continue to increase.
Today, we have participated in the formulation of global technical regulations and made important contributions, which marks that China's role in the formulation and revision of international automotive technical regulations has begun to change from "follower" to "contributor".
The leadership in terms of sales, technology, and regulations is making the Chinese market the defining source of the next generation of vehicles.
Text |"Lookout" Newsweek reporter Qian Peishan.
In the workshop of Li Auto's Changzhou base in Jiangsu, the robotic arm performs welding operations (taken on January 10, 2024) Photo by Ji Chunpeng This magazine.
In 2023, China's new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 95870,000 and 94950,000 units, a year-on-year increase. 9%, with a market share of 316%。
Compared to the past year 1465Of the 30,000 global new energy vehicle sales, China's new energy vehicle sales account for nearly 65%.
Yuan Chengyin, director and general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, believes that in the new energy era, China's automobiles have risen rapidly, gradually becoming "leaders" from "followers".
After years of development, China has basically built a complete and competitive new energy vehicle industry chain, successfully opened up key links such as vehicles, raw materials, parts, system assemblies and manufacturing equipment, infrastructure, etc., and has a world-class automotive chain system.
There are various signs that the rise of China's new energy vehicles is changing the rules of the game for the global automotive industry, while providing a broad platform for the development of emerging technologies represented by artificial intelligence. Under its influence, the global economic map may usher in a new round of profound changes, and the global energy revolution will also move forward rapidly.
Changing the "rules of the game" for the global automotive industry
Walking into a new energy vehicle factory in Ningbo, Zhejiang, the reporter of "Lookout" Newsweek found that a finished car can be rolled off the assembly line in about 80 seconds, and a production line can produce 45 vehicles per hour. Each station on the production line is assembled in a very short time.
When the iteration speed of some overseas car 'old guns' is still two to three years, China's new energy vehicle companies can launch a new model every few months. The interviewed experts said.
The rise of new energy vehicles has changed the competitive advantage of the automobile industry, and the center of gravity of the global automotive chain has shifted to China.
In July 2023, a new energy vehicle will be driven out of the GAC Aion production line, marking that the production of new energy vehicles in China will reach 20 million. China's production and sales of new energy vehicles have ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years; In 2023, China's new energy vehicle exports will be 12030,000 units, up 772%, both record highs.
At the same time, the brand influence of China's new energy vehicles is also expanding.
Recently, a blogger posted a global electric vehicle sales list released by the data statistics **cleantechnica on social platforms, except for Tesla Model Y and Model 3 ranked first in the sales list.
In the first and third positions, the other seats in the top ten are basically occupied by domestic brands such as BYD, GAC Aion, and SAIC-GM-Wuling. Different from the manufacturing and assembly role played in Sino-foreign joint ventures in the past, Chinese brands are in a more important leading position in the era of new energy vehicles by virtue of innovation and breakthroughs.
In April 2023, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles approved by the Council of the European Union officially came into effect, and from 2035 onwards, the ban on new fuel vehicles and minivans that cause carbon emissions will be banned.
Sun Xiaohong, secretary general of the automobile branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, said that in the development of new energy vehicles in China, many traditional automobile giants are not optimistic about the prospects of new energy vehicles.
In July 2023, Volkswagen signed a cooperation agreement with Xpeng Motors to inject approximately US$700 million into Xpeng Motors. In October 2023, Stellantis and Leapmotor entered into a partnership to invest approximately EUR 1.5 billion in Leapmotor to acquire a 20% stake in ......In recent years, the internationalization of China's auto industry has entered a "new era of navigation", and the way Chinese car companies go overseas has gradually changed from "product output" to "technology output" and "industrial capacity output", and from simply selling cars to the whole industry chain to going overseas.
Relevant data show that enterprises in many links of the new energy vehicle industry chain, including vehicles, power batteries, positive and negative electrode materials, electrolytes, separators, lithium battery copper foils, lithium mines, lithium salts, etc., have a deep overseas layout covering the whole industrial chain, with a total investment of more than 700 billion yuan.
Sun Xiaohong believes that China's ability breakthrough and complete industrial chain in the field of new energy vehicle products and complex technology have made Western countries lose the corresponding industrial dominance, thanks to which, China's voice and contribution in the global automotive international standards and regulations continue to increase.
In October 2022, the first international standard ISO34501 "Road Vehicle - Autonomous Driving System Test Scenario Glossary", which was drafted and completed by China, was released by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). In June 2023, the international standard "Road Vehicles - Functional Safety - Application of Rechargeable Energy Storage System for New Energy Vehicles" led by China was officially released in the form of a technical report ......
Wang Zhao, director of the Standardization Institute of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, believes that "now, we have participated in the formulation of global technical regulations and made important contributions, which marks that China's role in the formulation and revision of international automotive technical regulations has begun to change from 'follower' to 'contributor'." ”
for the development of emerging technologies.
Provide a large-scale "proving ground".
The automobile is called "industry within the industry", not only because of the large-scale economic volume brought by the automobile itself and its upstream and downstream service supporting activities, but also because it can provide a large-scale application "testing ground" for the cultivation and development of emerging technologies, so that emerging technologies can enter a positive cycle of "investment and application returns".
Feng Kaidong, an associate professor at Peking University's School of Management, once used the term "developing cruises" to explain the importance of the automobile industry to a country's cultivation and development of emerging technologies. "* is like a cruise ship in itself, and the countries that have successfully boarded this ship in the past have the magic to turn the many technologies and industries they carry into gold. Feng Kaidong said.
In the "first half" of the transformation of the automobile industry, China has achieved significant advantages in the field of motors, electronic control and batteries at the core of "electrification" due to the advantages of the complete automobile industry chain and the early layout and continuous efforts of the policy side.
On January 16, BYD Auto announced that BYD and DJI have cooperated to create the world's first vehicle-mounted drone integrated with the whole vehicle, which supports intelligent storage, automatic battery swapping and charging management, and can take off and land with one click.
The vehicle-mounted drone is just a microcosm of the intelligent technology widely used in new energy vehicles. According to the data of the Passenger Association, in the first half of 2023, the national L2 level assisted driving loading rate of new energy vehicles has been close to 40%, of which the model priced at 160,0024 thousand yuan is 497%。In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other four departments jointly issued the Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work on the Access and Road Access of Intelligent Connected Vehicles, which will carry out on-road pilot projects for intelligent networked vehicle products equipped with L3 (conditional autonomous driving) and L4 (highly automated driving) functions.
Different from traditional fuel vehicles limited by control, response, power supply, architecture and other problems, the power structure of new energy vehicles is relatively simple, there is no delay in response, the built-in energy storage equipment can meet the power supply problems of various configurations of the intelligent cockpit, and the domain control architecture also reduces the difficulty of centralized management of electronic control units (ECUs), providing fertile soil for intelligent development.
Behind the intelligent development of new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence technology, which is regarded as the fourth industrial revolution, has become a "battleground for soldiers". Industry insiders believe that the development of the new energy vehicle industry will effectively promote the technological progress and scientific and technological innovation of various fields related to cutting-edge basic research, design and development, testing, production and manufacturing, and its related technology and product innovation will play a demonstration and driving role in scientific and technological innovation in other industries.
Zhang Honghan, vice president of Nezha Automobile Marketing Company, introduced that at present, Nezha Automobile is continuing to invest and exert efforts in the direction of vehicle artificial intelligence, hand-car interconnection, cabin-driving integration, multi-screen interconnection, NOA technology, and the supercomputing regional architecture of the new generation area 1+3, and the technical achievements will meet the market in new models one after another.
In the past, new technologies were verified in Western countries and promoted to the Chinese market, but now China's new energy vehicle market is the first to be applied in the products launched in China due to its ultra-large-scale, rapid iteration and high consumer acceptance of new technologies. Gao Xiang, director of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Chain Research and Cooperation Center, said.
Industry insiders believe that the leading position in terms of sales, technology, and rules is making the Chinese market the defining source of the next generation of automobiles.
Begin to reshape the global economic landscape.
In the era of fuel vehicles, Germany, Japan and other countries are the world's most indisputable important towns. Relying on the world's first-class vehicle brands and the manufacturing advantages of the "three major parts" of engine, gearbox and chassis, the automobile industry has become a pillar industry supporting the development of the two countries.
It is understood that in Germany and Japan, the automobile industry accounts for about 10% of its GDP. In Germany, about 1 7 jobs and 1 4 percent of tax revenue come from the automotive and related industries.
In the new energy era, the advantages of traditional fuel vehicle countries are fading. According to data from the British company Elsie Automotive Market Consulting, the proportion of new car sales in Japan in 2022 is only 17%, well below China's 19% and Europe's 11%.
Weak growth in pillar industries has further brought its economic growth to a standstill. Japan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 will be 4., according to Japan's Kyodo News Agency2,106 trillion US dollars, falling to the fourth place in the world. Germany, which has been located for many years after Japan, had a nominal GDP of about 4 last year4 trillion US dollars, ranking more than Japan.
Relevant analysts believe that aside from the impact of the exchange rate, in addition to the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth and weak domestic demand, the weakening of the advantages of the automobile pillar industry may be one of the reasons for the weakness of the Japanese economy.
In contrast, in 2023, China's automobile production and sales will exceed 30 million, China's automobile exports will exceed 4.9 million, China's new energy passenger vehicle market penetration rate will exceed 35%, and the automobile manufacturing industry will complete operating income 100975800 million yuan ......The shift of the global economic center of gravity brought about by the rise of China's new energy vehicles is taking place.
In the face of the strong growth trend of new energy vehicles, Germany, Japan and other fuel vehicle countries are facing severe transformation pressure. On the one hand, the transformation and development of new energy vehicles need to bear a large sunk cost and face a large gap with China and the United States in the field of core technologies such as intelligence, on the other hand, sticking to the position of fuel vehicles may further decline the development of pillar industries, which will affect the overall economic development trend of the country.
In the face of the general trend of development, Europe and Japan have chosen different paths: Europe, represented by Germany, has chosen to follow aggressively, trying to maintain the fundamentals through the industrial advantages accumulated in the era of fuel vehicles, the huge domestic demand market and policy protection; Japanese companies represented by Toyota have chosen to use the existing influence of the Nissan fuel vehicle brand to fight hard to buy time for transformation.
However, driven by new energy vehicles, the trend of accelerating the adjustment of the competitive map of the global automotive industry has become overwhelming. Overseas data shows that the global market penetration rate of pure electric vehicles has increased from 4% in 2020 to 9% in 2021 (BEV is 6.).1%), and then 14% in 2022 (10% for BEV) is growing year by year, and the global market penetration rate for electric vehicles has increased to 16% by 2023 (of which 11% is BEV).
Relevant people believe that the technological development of intelligent, solid-state batteries and other fields will still have an impact on the global competition pattern, and how to grasp and expand China's leading edge in the next step will become the focus of China's development in the next stage.
Carry the banner of energy transition.
Since the Second Industrial Revolution, the energy system based on "oil and gas" has been established and dominated by Western countries. With the rapid development of China's economy and society, the demand for energy has risen sharply, and the energy structure of "more coal, less oil and lack of gas" determines China's long-term dependence on overseas oil and gas imports.
According to the data, China's foreign dependence on natural gas is about 40%, and the foreign dependence on oil is about 70%; Oil consumption in the transportation sector accounts for about 70% of China's total oil consumption. Accelerating the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure in the transportation sector is of great significance to China's high-quality development.
Driven by new energy vehicles, China's energy structure is transforming to a new power system dominated by new energy, and the proportion of clean energy such as wind and solar energy in the energy structure is gradually increasing.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of December 2023, the country's renewable energy power generation capacity reached 151.6 billion kilowatts, accounting for 51 of the country's power generators9%, accounting for nearly 40% of the world's renewable energy power generation.
In terms of actual power generation, in 2023, the country's renewable energy power generation will be nearly 3 trillion kWh, close to 1 3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society. According to the data of the "2023 edition of the World Energy Statistical Yearbook" released by British Petroleum (BP), China's renewable power generation in 2023 is about equal to the total power generation of India, the third largest global power generation in 2022, and Russia, the fourth place.
The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has led to the continuous expansion of demand for renewable energy products.
The production and sales volume in the field of power batteries reached a new high. According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2023, the total production and sales of power and other batteries in China will reach 7781GWh and 7297gwh。According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national output of crystalline silicon cells exceeded 403GW in January and October 2023, and the total export value of photovoltaic silicon wafers, cells and modules reached 429$900 million.
In addition, in the context of the "dual carbon" strategy, the widespread popularity of new energy vehicles can effectively reduce the overall carbon emissions and promote the sustainable development of China's green economy.
According to the China Automotive Technology and Research Center's "China Automotive Low-Carbon Action Plan", compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the carbon emissions of a pure electric new energy vehicle are at least 40% lower in the whole life cycle. According to China Automotive Data, through the transformation of vehicle electrification and related emission reduction measures, China's automobile life cycle carbon emissions can be reduced to 10 by 2030300 million tons, which can be reduced to 1. by 2060600 million tons.
Experts believe that with the development of electrification of new energy vehicles, the future of automotive carbon emissions will gradually shift from the fuel cycle to the vehicle cycle, to improve energy efficiency, reduce material carbon emissions as the main path, and gradually establish a low-carbon, decarbonized automotive industry chain.
Outlook, No. 10, 2024).