Compared with '23, I am afraid that the economic situation this year will be even more severe, on the one hand, China is falling into the so-called "middle-income trap", and on the other hand, the demand for China's economic growth cannot be delayed.
What is the middle-income trap?
The middle-income trap refers to the fact that after a country enters the middle-income stage from the low-income stage, the economy hovers in the middle-income range for a long time, which is generally manifested in the continuous deceleration or slow growth of the economy.
Here's the simplest example: Hotspot Engine Program If you're the lowest cost producer, businesses from all over the world will come to you, but when you're no longer the lowest cost producer, the factory will move elsewhere, and then your economic growth will stagnate, which is where the term "trap" comes from. When China's production costs are low and labor is low, global business opportunities are coming, and China is the world's factory. However, as revenues grow and costs become the most expensive, many factories have relocated to Vietnam, the Philippines and other places to seek lower costs and choose to pay lower wages. When factories moved abroad, domestic workers lost their jobs and income levels stopped growing.
When a country's economy grows to a middle-income level, many challenges will follow, such as hindered industrial upgrading, overcapacity, and increased dependence on foreign countries. More importantly, social contradictions will gradually become prominent, when everyone's income is in the first place, everyone benefits, and many problems will be covered up, but when unemployment, salary cuts, squeezing, etc. become part of life, people's tolerance for things will be greatly reduced, and some small things will lead to frequent contradictions.
Why do we have to keep growing? Why can't we stop and slow down and enjoy the fruits of reform and opening up to now?
Because China has only made some people rich first, and has not yet achieved common prosperity, for those who have become rich first, they may no longer need economic growth.
But for the vast majority of low-income groups, they also want to live a better life. If you tell them that no matter how hard they try, their children will live the same life as them, and the hardships will still be like that, then many people will choose to lie down, not get married, not have children, and the whole society will fall into recession.
Therefore, China's economic growth is crucial, and he needs to bring hope, not despair, to those who work hard to create a good environment for women.
In 2024, the country will vigorously advocate the promotion of consumption, and the notice of the General Office of the State on Measures to Restore and Expand Consumption is expected to further meet the consumption needs of residents and release the consumption potential by optimizing the policy and system design and optimizing the consumption environment.
The Ministry of Commerce also issued a document stating that in 2024, the Ministry of Commerce will hold 4 major theme activities and carry out 12 key activities. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce will vigorously develop digital consumption, implement digital consumption promotion actions, and promote cross-border e-commerce to deepen the pilot; stabilize and expand traditional consumption such as automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings, so as to facilitate people's lives; improve support policies and formulate policies and measures to promote the development of service consumption; We will continue to improve the urban commercial system led by pedestrian streets, supported by smart business districts, and based on convenient living circles, and thoroughly implement the three-year action of county-level commerce, continue to release the potential of urban and rural consumption, and hope that domestic consumption will inject new vitality into economic growth.
It is hoped that in 2024, in the face of a complex domestic and international environment, China's economy will show strong resilience and vitality.