With the arrival of "Super Tuesday", Trump has won the votes of most states, and the Republican Party basically has a chance of victory. It is foreseeable that this year's United States *** is still likely to be a showdown between Trump and Biden. And even if it is a showdown with the current ** Biden, Trump is currently in a tailwind situation. According to the latest poll jointly conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, the current support rate for Biden in the United States is 43%, while the support rate for Trump is 48%, and Trump is 5 percentage points ahead, with a clear advantage.
Although it is too early to say who will win this November, there is no doubt that the world needs to be prepared to welcome Trump back again, including China, Russia, and traditional allies of the United States, all of whom need to take into account future changes in American political policy.
The United States has been elected for so many terms, why is Trump the most concerned? Judging from the effect of Trump's previous administration, the biggest feature of Trump's policy is "uncertainty". In the past, under the banner of "America First," Trump was ready to disrupt the plans of other countries, including America's own allies. And now, it is a very special period, the Russian-Ukrainian war is still fighting, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not ended, and every country is in the future direction of these events, and Trump's "uncertainty" will undoubtedly increase the difficulty.
Interestingly, in the face of this "uncertainty", the first to sit still are the European allies of the United States. And it's interesting that the attitude of the European allies towards Trump's possible election as the next ** is quite **.
For example, Macron in France publicly stated that if Trump is re-elected to the United States, he will try to cooperate with him.
In addition, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Sunak have actually expressed similar views.
But on the other hand, there are also European leaders who have welcomed Trump's return quite well.
For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced that he will travel to Florida to meet with Trump on March 8. This Biden hasn't ** yet, what do you make Biden think about Orban's move? Of course, as a representative of Europe's right-wing prime ministers, Orban's move also represents that European "conservatism" welcomes Trump. It is foreseeable that if Trump comes to power, it will further exacerbate the "right-turning" trend in Europe.
The ambivalent attitude of various factions in Europe towards Trump is mainly due to Trump's very different attitude from Biden** in his treatment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and NATO. Trump is opposed to supporting Ukraine and has also threatened to withdraw from NATO. Now the United Kingdom, France, Germany and other European countries have invested a lot of money and energy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and if Trump withdraws directly without discussion, these investments will not be wasted. On the other hand, Trump's idea is very similar to the idea of "populism" in Europe. This is also the beginning of Europe's "**".
In addition to European allies, Trump's return to power will also bring new tests to Russia and China.
Trump has said that as long as he takes office, he will end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours. Speculation about whether Trump will trade a truce with Russia at the expense of Ukraine seems to be in Russia's interests.
However, because of the "uncertainty" of Trump's policy, and the increasingly irreconcilable contradictions between the United States and Russia, Russia needs to carefully discern Trump's words.
As for China, there is no doubt that Trump's coming to power means that there will be more competition between China and the United States in the economic, diplomatic, geopolitical and other fields.
We know that the first to fight the "** war" with China was Trump. Trump has been advocating "decoupling from China" while focusing on containing China's rise.
But to be honest, after Trump, Biden has actually basically adopted Trump's original China policy, and after so many years, we have also become desensitized.
The current Sino-US relationship is that no matter who is the United States, the Sino-US game will be the main tone. What China needs to do is to respond strategically, abandon illusions, and prepare for battle.