It's crazy!
Since late February, gold prices have soared, and on Tuesday this Tuesday, the spot price hit $2,141 an ounce, a record high.
But even so, the world's top financial institutions are still generally optimistic about the rise in gold prices during the year.
Citi analystGold is expected to have a 25% chance of reaching a record US$2,300 an ounce in the second half of the year.
Most Wall Street analysts expect thatThe strength of the gold price will continue until at least the second half of the year.
Whether it is expected or the real trend of the market, gold prices are soaring.
Of course, the price of gold cannot be ** for no reason, and often reflects a dramatic change in societal expectations.
The first expectation: interest rate cuts will continue in 2024
The monetary policies of China and the United States can basically reflect the trend of global monetary policy. In 2024, the monetary policies of China and the United States will move in the same direction. That is, if China cuts interest rates, the United States will also cut interest rates.
Fed rate cut expectations have risen again due to weaker US economic data. Since this year is the first year in the United States, economic data is very important to the election, stimulating the economy and expanding employment through interest rate cuts has been put on the table, and the Fed's interest rate cut in 2024 is not a question of whether to cut it, but how much to cut.
March 5thThe US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4172%, the lowest level since February 13 last year. The ** of U.S. 10 bonds reflects the expectation of interest rate cuts this year.
On the Chinese side, the ** work report has been clarified:Promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs. It is expected that not only the interest rate on loans will fall this year, but also the interest rate on deposits.
And the interest rate cut means that the funds are cheaper, mainly the price of the dollar, when the dollar depreciates, the price of gold will be.
As long as the expectation of continued interest rate cuts remains, the more the dollar will depreciate and the more gold prices will be**.
The second expectation: the United States** will significantly increase global risks in 2024
Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states should not disqualify Trump** primaries. The showdown between Biden and Trump in 2024 is basically a certainty.
According to the current polls, Trump is clearly ahead of Biden, and considering that Trump is mainly an iron vote, if the current situation remains unchanged, there is a high probability that Trump will win.
If Trump wins, international relations will undergo major changes, and geopolitical risks will rise significantly, and gold prices are most likely to be the first to avoid assets in this chaos.
The current round of gold prices is a reflection of the above trend this year, and as this trend persists this year, it is expected to continue to rise during the year.
In an uncertain market environment in 2024** may be a more certain opportunity.
In the past round of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, many investors have grasped the investment opportunities of paper **, but many people do not know that ** stocks in the ** market are more likely to obtain excess returns.
Take Wednesday's market as an example, London gold **011%, but the first listed **-share ETF (517520) in the market insteadSoared by 135%, which rose even as high as Tuesday2.68%, ranking first in the whole market ETF!
I have mentioned this ETF to you before, and I have my own layout. Friends who don't have a ** account can followWinwin CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ** Industry ** ETF initiated the connection (Class A 020411, Class C 020412).
Some readers asked, why not choose **ETF?
*Share ETFs are mainly based on **shares, and **ETFs are mainly based on **, relatively speaking**Equity ETFs are more likely to earn alpha. For example, Wednesday ETF, significantly underperforming the ** stock ETF.
In short, 2024 will be an extraordinary year, and there is something certain in this, that is, interest rates will continue to fall, which will bring significant benefits to **, property market, ** and other assets**. However, due to the fact that the United States and other stocks have brought too much uncertainty to 2024, ** is more of a local opportunity, but it may be ** and ** stocks to fight their way out of these uncertain factors.