Pig prices are large**: March 3** dynamics.
Abstract] With the approach of the Spring Festival, the ** of pork has gradually returned to normal, before due to the inertia of consumption during the festival, as well as the impact of rain and snow, the ** of pork has fallen back with a vengeance after the festival, and the ** of ternary pork has fallen to the "freezing point"! However, approaching the Lantern Festival, affected by the atmosphere of the Spring Festival, and the support of the gradual warming of downstream consumer demand, the pig ** has bottomed out, however, at the end of this month, the group pig enterprises are facing huge pig production pressure, and the pig ** increase has deviated, therefore, there is still the possibility of continuing to decline! However, at this critical juncture, the second-born fat cattle have a strong momentum, the pork ** has reversed, and the average of the third-born pigs has reached more than 14 yuan!
However, in early March, due to the change in the first month, the price psychology of farmers has been relaxed, coupled with the lack of continuous growth in consumption, the psychology of the second slaughter has changed, resulting in a "big change of face" in the pigs, the momentum of the continuous ** has come to an abrupt end, and the pigs in many places have declined.
According to the data, on March 3, 2021, the average price of three-yuan three-yuan lean pork in China was 1403 yuan kg, down 001 yuan, the pig ** stable in the soft, ** showing the trend of "from the rise into the fall", the north and the south of the pig ** maintained in the weak, individual places also have ** and signs of falling, Northeast, North China, East China, Central China, only some places in the southwest and Guangxi, pigs ** continued**, but the speed of pig price increase is not fast, so, the current situation is relatively stable!
At present, there are many pork, although there is a weakness, but I think that pork has not fallen back to the "original price" basis, in the short term, it may be around 14 yuan kg, and there is a certain range of lower!
First, the continued consumption support is very small, although consumer demand in urban areas is gradually recovering, however, due to the relatively slow growth of domestic demand, therefore, in addition to the growth of pork is not ideal, therefore, in this season, China's slaughtering enterprises operating rate will continue to remain at a low level to adjust, which is undoubtedly a big constraint for consumers.
Second, the pressure on pork supply still exists! With the best improvement of the sow herd, the production capacity of sows has been increased, although the current pig production in our country has reached 55 million tons, however, the demand for the pig herd has been greatly reduced, from 41 million to 39 million, and this "green" range has been reduced from 95% to 92%! It is reported that at the end of January this year, China's pig stock still reached 40.67 million, which is at a high level! Although the rate of decline in the number of sows has increased since October last year due to the epidemic, the current stock is still very large, so in March, the supply of pork with suitable weight is still relatively sufficient!
Third, the inventory of frozen meat is high, and at present, the frozen storage rate of sampling slaughtering enterprises is 2425%, a decrease of 01%。With the price reduction of fresh white strips, the sales of frozen meat have become more difficult, and the pressure of destocking frozen products is very high, which may have a greater impact on the fresh market!
Fourth, the second fertilizer into the market flexible, the first position, the low price, the operation of the "short flat fast" is more clear, at the same time, the phased rise of pork, but also aggravated the wait-and-see psychology of the second breeding, plus, the enthusiasm of collective pig breeding has rebounded, and the moderate supply of pork has increased, so that the lack of pigs in the slaughtering enterprise is reduced, and the psychology of price reduction has also been enhanced!