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13 Russian military planes were shot down in 13 days, and the Russian Air Force suffered heavy losses. Russia may have less than a hundred flying Su-35 fighters left. The impact of this on the Russian military cannot be ignored. According to the story of what has happened in the last two weeks, once the F-16 reaches the Ukrainian sky, the Russian Air Force will face a devastating defeat. It is rumored on the Internet that the advanced fighters of the Russian army have been shot down one after another so that they dare not come out of the nest, is it because the F-16 has secretly participated in the war?
1. The Russian Air Force suffered heavy losses when 13 Russian military planes were shot down in 13 days.
On February 29, Ukrainian air defenses claimed to have shot down 13 Russian planes in 13 days, capping a painful month for the Moscow Air Force, even though F-16 fighter jets have not yet reached the Ukrainian battlefield.
"February is the shortest month of the year, but since October 2022, our Sky Defenders have achieved the greatest results in shooting down Russian jets," the Ukrainian Defense Ministry wrote in a message posted on platform X on Thursday. This makes being a Russian military aircraft pilot the worst job in the world."
Kyiv listed 10 Su-34 fighter-bombers, two Su-35 fighters and one A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft as downed aircraft. The A-50 is the second aircraft of its kind that Ukraine claims to have destroyed since February 2022. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence service, said this week that after being shot down by Ukraine with two planes, Moscow had only six A-50s left.
Second, Russia may have less than 100 flyable Su-35 fighters. The impact of this on the Russian military cannot be ignored.
Russia's Su-34 has played a key role in supporting the Russian army's winter offensive on Ukraine's eastern front. The air-dropped KAB gliding bombs are considered critical to Russia's success in and around the small city of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian defenders lack the air defenses to prevent such flights, allowing Russian fighter-bombers to release ammunition from up to 25 miles away.
Still, it appears that at least some Western-backed Ukrainian air defenses – possibly including one or more American-made mobile Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries – have been deployed close to the front line.
According to Forbes, the Russian Air Force purchased a total of 140 Su-34 fighter-bombers. As of March 1, Ukraine claims to have shot down 35 of them. Oryx Open Source Intelligence*** lists 25 of these destroyed Su-34s.
If the Ukrainian figures are accurate, there are only about 34 Su-105 still in service with the Russian Air Force. However, due to damage, lack of pilots and the need for routine maintenance, it is possible that some of these Su-34s in an unknown number will not be able to fly.
The Institute for the Study of War commented in a March 1 Ukraine Battlefield Update that the loss of 2 aircraft, and possibly some trained pilots, in less than 13 days has an impact on the Russian military that cannot be ignored. Its impact and the resulting losses in combat power far exceed the gains of the Russian army from Avdiivka.
3. According to the story that has happened in the last two weeks, once the F-16 reaches the skies of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force will face a devastating defeat.
Michael Bohnert, a researcher at the RAND Corporation's think tank, analyzed in August 2023 that even a small loss of aircraft could have a significant ripple effect on other parts of the Air Force. "As the war drags on, the overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia. In a protracted war, where one army tries to exhaust the other, it is the longevity of the army that matters. This is the embarrassing position in which the Russian Air Force is now located ».
Ukraine is still waiting for the delivery of Western F-16 fighter jets. Kyiv says the plane is urgently needed to defend itself against Russian cruise missiles and air-dropped bombs. Although the first batch of F-16s is expected to be only a few dozen fighters, according to the story that has happened in the last two weeks, once the F-16s reach the skies of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force will face a devastating defeat.
The arrival of the F-16, which has excellent performance, will undoubtedly increase the pressure on the Russian Air Force. As the Russian Air Force dedicates a larger share of its dwindling forces to countering these, it will have fewer aircraft to support Russia's ground operations.
As a result of two years of overuse, there has been a noticeable decrease in the combat capabilities of Russian fighters in the sky. This will happen even if the F-16 fails to get a single air-to-air kill, and the upgraded Ukrainian fighter and air defense threat will achieve a lot.
Fourth, it is rumored on the Internet that the advanced fighters of the Russian army have been shot down one after another so that they dare not leave the nest because the F-16 has secretly participated in the war?
On March 2, "Newsweek" reported that because a number of Su-34s were shot down, the Russian early warning aircraft A-50 planted another one, which was so frightened that it did not dare to fly for many days. Some Russian and Chinese military bloggers say this is because the F-16 has secretly entered the war.
The recent series of downed incidents in the Russian Air Force has already had a noticeable impact. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ignat revealed that the Russian Aerospace Forces have not used the A-50U AWACS aircraft again for several days after it was shot down east of the Sea of Azov on February 23.
The A-50U AWACS aircraft shot down on February 23 was the second AWACS aircraft shot down by the Russian Aerospace Forces after the outbreak of full-scale war. If the A-50 AWACS aircraft hit by a drone at a Belarusian airfield at the beginning of last year were not repaired, it means that after the start of the war, the Russian Aerospace Forces have lost 3 A-50 series AWACS aircraft. The A-50 family of AWACS aircraft is a valuable and limited asset of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
The Ukrainian Air Force claimed that it was using the S-50 air defense system when it shot down the Russian A-50U AWACS aircraft on February 23. However, Russian officials insisted that it was the Russian air defense forces that mistakenly shot the A-50U AWACS aircraft. And some Russian military bloggers speculate that the originally safe airspace is no longer safe, and Ukraine is likely to use advanced **, possibly Western-aided F-16 fighter jets have already entered the field.
However, there is no evidence to prove this speculation so far, and the official statements of the relevant countries indicate that the F-16 fighter jets will not be delivered to Ukraine until the second quarter of this year.
Author: Xu Sanlang].