From C-end products such as mobile phones, home appliances, and automobiles, to national defense equipment such as satellite communications, missiles, and aircraft carriers, all walks of life are inseparable from the support of small chips. As the "crown jewel" of the chip manufacturing industry, the lithography machine is a crucial equipment in the chip manufacturing process, and the lithography machine technology directly determines the performance and cost of the chip, affecting the pace of digital and intelligent development of thousands of industries.
At present, there is still a gap between domestic lithography machine technology and overseas technical strength, and China's lithography machine equipment is almost entirely imported. The Dutch lithography machine giant ASML occupies a monopoly on the global lithography machine market share and masters the world's most advanced lithography machine technology, so the Netherlands is also the largest importer of lithography machines in China.
However, with the Netherlands joining the US chip export control camp to China and withdrawing part of ASML's export license to China, China's semiconductor industry has made waves again, and the localization of lithography machines is full of challenges.
Buying lithography machines in large quantities and stockpiling grain for the "winter"?
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2023, China's total import of lithography machines will be 87$5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1209%, of which, 72300 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1838%, and the Dutch imports accounted for 82 of the total imports6%, an increase of 18 year-on-year3 percentage points.
According to the data, China's total imports of lithography machines have soared, and in 2023, China imported and purchased nearly 60 billion yuan worth of lithography machines from the Dutch company ASML. For this "large-scale" phenomenon, there are currently two views in the industry:
First, from January 1, 2024, it will be difficult for companies in Chinese mainland to obtain export licenses, so many companies have previously raided the import of lithography machines and stockpiled "winter" in case of emergency.
Second, in order to meet the demand for chip production capacity, further breakthroughs in chip technology will be made to improve the performance of chips and reduce the cost of chips.
Although semiconductor companies in Chinese mainland have seized the window to stock up on lithography machines, the US ban on Dutch export controls has also tightened, and the key rope of "stuck neck" has quietly fallen.
Recently, the Dutch minister said that due to concerns about the corresponding equipment being used for military purposes, the Netherlands** withdrew the export license of some of ASML's products to China.
Recently, ASML also confirmed the news that this year will not be able to export NXT:2000i and above immersion equipment to China, including equipment models such as NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography systems, and a small number of Chinese mainland fabs will not be able to obtain an export license to ship NXT:1970i 1980i immersion equipment.
What is the impact of the Netherlands** withdrawing part of ASML's export license to China?
It is reported that the 2050i and 2100i that are restricted from export this time are the most advanced DUV lithography machine models, which can be widely used in the process capacity below 40nm, corresponding to the four main process nodes of 28nm, 14nm, 10nm and 7nm.
In short, the NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography systems have the capability to produce chips on the 7nm process and theoretically on the 5nm process.
Combined with the current technical level of domestic chip companies such as Huawei, China is expected to enter the 5nm chip market in the past two years, and the embargo of this batch of DUV equipment happens to be the range that the domestic chip industry can "touch with a little effort".
The production capacity of domestic advanced process chips is climbing, and this ban has undoubtedly brought new challenges to the development of the domestic semiconductor industry.
In addition to affecting the expansion of chip production capacity, the greater impact lies in the fact that the embargo of advanced lithography systems will drive the collective "de-beautification" of the upstream and downstream industrial chains. In this wave, China's chip manufacturing industry has to "go all over again" - the reshaping of each chip process node and industrial link will cost huge economic and time costs.
On the other hand, driven by the times, the pace of localization of lithography machines will become more and more firm and continue to move forward. "De-beautification" is not only a necessary way, but also a powerful engine to stimulate the independent research and development and innovation of domestic science and technology enterprises, which will surely ignite the "core fire" of domestic semiconductors.
In the face of a new round of challenges, domestic lithography machines urgently need to "break the situation".
Without the support of advanced lithography machines, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic lithography machines needs to be improved urgently, how to break the situation?
Give up illusions and prepare for battle", which should be the key to breaking the situation in the localization of lithography machines.
Combined with the import data, ASML will give Chinese mainland companies large-scale lithography machine shipments in the second half of 2023 for business reasons, and strive to meet the requirements of Chinese customers and "rush" lithography machines before the ban takes effect.
However, ASML does not have the ability to circumvent regulatory measures like NVIDIA, which has the absolute right to speak on chip design, because the core components of ASML's lithography machines come from Germany and the United States.
In the entire lithography machine parts market, Dutch cavity and British vacuum account for 32%, American light source accounts for 27%, German optical system accounts for 14%, and Japanese materials account for 27%.
Taking ASML's highest-end technology EUV lithography machine as an example, the lithography machine has as many as 100,000 parts, which come from more than 5,000 leading companies around the world, among which the core light source, especially the EUV light source, is almost completely monopolized by the American company Cymer.
Therefore, it is not realistic for domestic companies to hope that ASML will "bypass the blockade" and resell advanced process lithography machines, and they still need to be self-reliant.
At present, some Japanese and domestic companies are still making every effort to tackle the DUV light source, which is inferior to the EUV light source, and there is still a gap with ASML's standards. Opponents will not stop waiting for China's chip manufacturing to catch up, and in the face of a new round of challenges, the localization of lithography machines and chips has a long way to go.
To break through the technological blockade, we need to strengthen independent research and development, unremittingly tackle key problems in the technology of lithography machine parts, and improve the technical level and market competitiveness of domestic lithography machines.
The promotion of the localization of lithography machine is related to the development of China's chip technology, and domestic semiconductor companies need to improve their own R&D strength, from each process node to the industrial link, every step needs to be walked through steadily to ensure that every link is stable and reliable, in order to truly realize the independent and controllable chip industry.
Write at the end
At present, China's 90nm process lithography machine has completed the project acceptance work, that is, the SSX600 series lithography machine launched by Shanghai Microelectronics, but there is still a certain gap compared with the most advanced level overseas; Huazhuo Jingke, Keyi Hongyuan, Aopu Optics and other enterprises have also made some progress in double workpiece tables, light sources, optical lenses, etc., but they still need to further accelerate the speed of research and development and narrow the gap with the international advanced level.
There is still a gap between the technical strength of the domestic lithography machine and the overseas one, and the breakthrough progress in parts and components is different, but as long as thousands of followers make unremitting efforts to overcome difficulties, we believe that the power of "believing" can come true.