Kunpeng Project
What is the logic behind the reversal of the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States during the Sino-US financial war?
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On the global economic map, the situation is changing rapidly, and every policy change is like a quietly moving pawn, controlling the whole situation. In the process of lowering interest rates in the United States, there is not only a single economic phenomenon, but also a complex game of countries around the world.
In this game, each country has its own plans, and China is facing a change in the US fiscal strategy, and must also make corresponding changes under both external and internal pressures. The United States must use the "double-edged" interest rate while also being careful not to hurt itself, because every policy change will cause waves in the world economy.
The sudden change in the U.S. interest rate cut in the global economic environment is like a big dramaTide, jaw-dropping. Yesterday, ** was still immersed in the gentle countryside and enjoyed the wonderful feeling of falling interest rates, but today, it was caught off guard by the cruel reality of interest rate hikes.
People can't help but think of the "storm is coming", and in one night, the mood of ** becomes tense, just like the calm before the storm.
In the course of this round of fiscal policy reversal, there is a clear contradiction: the expectations of markets and policymakers are divergent.
Those accustomed to the Fed's mild consolations were expecting a modest rate cut, but they did not expect that the Federal Reserve would change its stance and become a firm implementer of the decision to raise interest rates. This transformation is no longer just a matter of numbers, but is closely related to people's wallets, the capital investment of enterprises, and the trend of the world economy.
Why was the Federal Reserve's attitude so unexpected? Is this due to a misunderstood market or a poor consideration by policymakers?
At that time, the market was almost in a frenzy, at one point it hit rock bottom, bonds were volatile, and investors sought safety in the sudden policy turmoil. However, this is just the beginning, and this is only a hint that a larger game is quietly unfolding.
The U.S. interest rate cut** has fallen into the pool of interest rate hikes like a diver, but this is only a superficial phenomenon, and what is hidden behind it is an invisible game that crosses borders and has far-reaching implications. In this game of chess, only one person can survive, and every move of the big forces is enough to make people stunned.
In a Wall Street café, financial experts whisper, discuss the movements of each country, and decipher deeper meanings from them. They know very well that the change in the United States this time is not just an accident, but more a precision strike, aimed directly at the world economy.
After the U.S. raised interest rates, funds were withdrawn from these emerging markets and returned to Stars and Stripes, which means that other countries, especially China, will have to rethink the way forward.
This game is not only an economic game, but also a political game. The U.S. strategic shift is like saying to its competitors what are you going to do next?And the reaction of the other party is bound to cause global turmoil.
With the United States raising interest rates, China is like an old fox trapped in a fortress, guarding against attacks from the outside and dealing with domestic troubles.
The ebb and flow of global money reminds me of an old saying: "When it goes up and down, the one who watches the water knows the hero". China's policymakers are demonstrating their economic policy superiority at this time, firmly sticking to their monetary gateway while also flexibly adjusting the temperature of the domestic economy.
In this fiscal game, China cannot lock itself up, nor can it casually put down its chess pieces. China is expected to introduce a set of hedging measures, such as appropriate credit easing to stimulate domestic demand, and financial means to achieve stable economic development.
For example, a large amount of infrastructure construction, tax cuts that may appear in the future. The purpose of this is to deal with external ** and bring more vitality to the country's economy.
But China's strategy is not a panacea, and the problem is how to boost economic growth without inducing inflation, as well as ensure the flow of capital and prevent asset bubbles. China's every move is closely watched by the world market, as if it were fighting a battle without gunpowder.
The next battle will turn to the United States and see how they will use this "double-edged sword" to give us** and make our enemies fearful.
The U.S. decision to raise interest rates this time is like a brave knife that intends to cut off the overheated economic chain, but at the same time, it may also hurt itself. In the process of interest rate liberalization, on the one hand, it is conducive to the inflow of funds, and on the other hand, it will also increase the liabilities of enterprises and individuals, and the trade-off between the two is embarrassing.
Under this knife, the U.S. housing market was the first to suffer. The constant mortgage interest is like a cold wind in winter, which extinguishes the enthusiasm of buyers. In addition, the business community is feeling that the cost of capital has increased, and the increase in borrowing costs due to higher interest rates has made it more difficult for some companies that are already faltering.
However, US policymakers are not completely unaware of these problems, but are trying to find a balance between economic development and inflation. However, this balance is very weak, like walking a tightrope, and if you miss the pool, you will fall into the abyss of economic depression.
Market analysts are closely watching every subtle change in these statistics and trying to speculate on when the "magic" will end. Global financial markets are gradually responding to a series of high-interest measures in the United States, and as a result, the world is closely watching the development.
The world economy is a game of chess, in which countries are inevitably influenced by the policies of other countries, and it is like a well-designed drama that is full of intrigue and gunpowder, but also full of unpredictable accidents and challenges. The rise in interest rates in the United States is like a double-edged sword, and its inevitability and danger are inevitable.
In today's globalized world, countries are like chess players playing internal and external games, defending and attacking at the same time, seeking victory. And the outcome of this game of chess will be a huge turning point for the entire global financial system.