The comparison between China and India feels very cheap, so it is rare for the country to make a serious comparison of the economic or military power of China and India. But our disdain does not mean that India** will have the same attitude. In India, the most enthusiastic is the comparison between China and India, and believes that India has surpassed China. Compared with most of India's domestic **, "EurAsia Times" can still have a correct mentality and recognize India's shortcomings, but it can't get rid of India's habit of bragging. This time it's time to find the stubble of China's fifth-generation stealth fighter again!
China will deploy 500 stealth fighters: India has three tricks to crack the matter because the historic first flight of Turkey's domestically produced ** fighter "Kaan" stimulated India. India** began to discuss India's fifth-generation aircraft, extending the conversation from Turkey's aviation industry to its own AMCA program, and then inevitably to China's fifth-generation aircraft and Pakistan's plans to purchase the J-31 in the near future. Finally, we began to discuss how to deal with the stealth fighters of China and Pakistan, and the whole process was very natural, the only problem was that India had nothing, but it seemed that the victory against China was in hand!
The basic dimensions of the Turkish Kaan fighter are a fuselage length of 21 meters, a wingspan of 14 meters, a height of 6 meters, a wing area of 60 square meters, a maximum take-off weight of 27 tons, and is equipped with two General Electric F110-GE-129 turbofan engines with a maximum speed of 1Mach 8, maximum ceiling 170,000 meters, overload +90g~-3.5g。It was taxied and ground tested on March 16, 2023, and sparked global attention.
India's ** assessment of the Kaan fighter is indeed quite good, calling it "the Turkish aerospace industry has recently soared to new heights with the historic first flight of its domestic ** fighter "Kaan". However, while the Indian media praised Turkey, they also had a lot of criticism about India's "fifth-generation aircraft" program, AMCA
AMCA's goal was to design a single-seat, twin-engine, fifth-generation stealth multirole fighter. It will provide India with air supremacy in the skies of South Asia along with Tejas fighters, the FGFA (which has been shelved), a joint Russian-Indian development, and the Su-30MKI.
The AMCA is a single-seat, twin-engine medium fighter with a maximum take-off weight of 25 tons, which is the same class as the Kaan. AMCA plans to upgrade gradually, and the Mark 1 will be equipped with 55th generation technology, Mark 2 will be gradually upgraded to 6th generation fighter technology. Capable of performing a variety of missions, including air supremacy, ground strike, suppression of enemy air defence systems (SEAD) and electronic warfare (EW) missions, the AMCA is tasked with being the workhorse of the Indian Air Force.
However, as of now, AMCA is still in the design phase and is awaiting a "critical design review", which is the early stage of the program. Some of the requirements put forward by the AMCA may seem exaggerated compared to Kaan's pragmatism: intelligent wingman concepts, swarm drones, long-duration Hale (high-altitude long-endurance) platforms, and hypersonics**, among others.
India thinks that it is far more advanced than Turkey, and its aviation industry is much superior to Turkey, but India's fifth-generation aircraft development is far behind Turkey, which makes Indian netizens a little defensive. However, some Indian netizens said that India and Turkey are not hostile, and China and Pakistan are the real enemies of India!
According to the data on domestic social media, China's current annual output of fifth-generation aircraft J-20 is about 80,100, and the total number of equipment will exceed 500 in the next few years. Recently, the Pakistan Air Force has announced that it will purchase China's J-31 fifth-generation medium-sized stealth fighters, and Indian experts estimate that the number may be around 100. In other words, there will be at least 600 fifth-generation aircraft around India in the next five years. But even if the AMCA fighter is developed at a normal pace and equipped with the Indian Air Force, it will not be until 20302035 years later. In this window period, how will India solve the "skylight" of India's air supremacy?
The Indian media recognized the seriousness of the problem, and the Eurasian Times believes that the potential situation of the adversary amassing a large number of ** aircraft near the Indian border is a huge challenge for the Indian armed forces. This development poses a multifaceted threat, including increased strategic vulnerability and reduced operational flexibility. But India is not completely helpless, and there are several ways to solve this big problem:
Accelerate the development of the AMCA and allow the Indian Air Force to use domestically produced fifth-generation aircraft against China as soon as possible;
The purchase of fifth-generation aircraft from Russia or the United States, such as the Russian Su-75 and the American F-35, are quite good options;
Increasing the density of India's domestic air defense systems, such as the S-400 missile, is an effective counterweight to stealth fighters.
The Indian media swears that this problem can be solved, but the research and development progress of AMCA does not mean that it can be accelerated by speeding up. Indian netizens have long pointed out the problem, for example, the LCA fighter was planned to be launched as early as the 1980s and should have been put into service in the 1990s, but Hindustan Aeronautics was not successfully developed until the 2000s. The AMCA fighter may follow in the same footsteps.
Only three countries in the world have developed fifth-generation aircraft: the United States, China and Russia. India is certainly unlikely to buy from China, so the remaining option is the United States or Russia. India is very interested in the F-35, but the United States is not going to give ** F-35 to countries equipped with Russian missiles. Turkey's purchase of S-400 missiles caused the F-35 deal to fall through. Therefore, it seems that India's options now are only Russian Su-75 fighters. This "light fifth-generation aircraft" does not seem to meet the requirements of the Indian Air Force, and since Russia is still at war, it is a question whether it will be able to deliver on time.
Increasing the density of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles is indeed a solution, but it seems that some strategy is lacking in dealing with stealth fighters. Even if this defense is effective, it is not quite in line with the IAF's ostentatious style because it is a passive defense rather than an active attack. Therefore, the three proposals proposed by the Indian media do not seem to be in line with the appetite of the Indian Air Force.
But this does not seem to have much impact on the Indian Air Force, which has always been honey-assertive. The 32 Reaper drones purchased from the United States last year beat the Chinese drones. You must know that China is a first-class country in the world's drone production, but just 32 Reaper drones are a piece of cake for India.
It's still interesting to look at the boasting of India's **. But don't laugh at it, China was in a similar mood on the Internet in the early 2000s. Back then, we also discussed how the J-8 could launch missiles within the F-22 combat range, and how Hyundai-class destroyers could break through the defensive circle of US aircraft carriers and launch supersonic anti-ship missiles. Isn't that familiar?
More than 20 years later, China and the United States have shared a table of green plum boiled wine. Although we don't know how to comment on heroism, at least it has reached the same level. We can already point fingers at the same table with the United States. So the question is, does India have such potential? Will it be able to stand on an equal footing with China in 20 years?
India also has twin aircraft carriers, as well as ballistic missiles and nuclear **. India's military power is rapidly expanding, and India's GDP has surpassed that of the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth-largest economy. India is even debating whether to intervene in a future crisis in the Taiwan Strait. For such a country, we really have to be very vigilant. But don't worry too much, because under the gorgeous coat of India, there are actually stinky and smelly feet!
For example, India's ** is basically bought. From tanks to fighter jets, only a tiny fraction of them are domestically produced. The main fighters and main battle tanks are either from France or Russia. The transport aircraft came from the United States. However, the tanks produced by themselves are not used, and the fighters cannot be mass-produced for a long time. And all the main forces of China are domestic. At present, it has reached the best or second best level in the world. And China is also an industrial power. The two are not on the same level at all. China does not need to be compared to India, nor does it bother to compare it.
Russian experts have concluded on Sino-Indian relations: in the event of a military conflict between China and India, India could face a serious defeat. In the face of enthusiastic rebuttals from the Indian public, the expert pointed out that although India is proud of its military strength, there is still a big gap compared to China's military power.
In addition to military strength, there is also the issue of manufacturing. India's GDP growth is set to exceed 7%, the highest among the world's major economies. India's manufacturing sector is booming. But this is not India's own development advantage, but the result of the West's constant support to counter China.
But there is a big problem in India's manufacturing industry: the industrial chain is incomplete. For example, the production of *** in India and the electronics industry such as garments and mobile phones. The upstream and downstream of these industrial chains involve the fields of chemicals, energy and electronics. If it's going to be rolled out across the board, it's not just about money. India may create another China.
In the 1980s, the purpose of industrial relocation in the West was to allow China to take control of a segmented task in the industrial chain. Only then can China accept the arrangement of the West. But China is not content to do so. While developing light industry, the entire industrial system has been established with the wisdom and wisdom of the Chinese nation.
Therefore, the ceiling of India is that the West will not make a second mistake. Although India is more flamboyant than China, it is still unlikely that these countries will dare to carry out assassination activities in Canada and the United States now, and they will become the "second oldest" in the future. Mastering one or two key points may be India's future positioning.
The second control point of the ceiling of India is in China. The competition in the industrial chain is very cruel. Once China rises, the whole world will only be a vassal of China. Not to mention India, even if the whole West unites, it will not help.
So, do you think India can have a place in this "cabbage-everything" industry chain? Industrial competition is very cruel. Once China rises, the whole world can only do China's support. Not to mention India, even if the entire West unites it will not be able to confront it.
So, will India be able to stand on an equal footing with China in 20 years? It's hard to say about that. India's economic and military power is growing rapidly, but there is still a huge gap compared to China.
In conclusion, there are many challenges facing both India's military power and manufacturing industry. While India has a wave of development dividends to reap, India's ceiling is also low. India's development is constrained by a lot of internal and external factors. India still has a long way to go before it can overtake China. But the reality is that with the rise of China, India's position in the global chain may decline further.
These are the realities that India has to face. While India has many advantages and potential, it needs to do more to compete with China. Otherwise, India will have to stay behind China forever.