The war in Ukraine has been going on for two full years. The current situation is: Ukraine is losing after the big **; The United States and Europe launched "devastating sanctions" against Russia; China launches second round of shuttle diplomacy; The United States and Europe have imposed sanctions on relevant Chinese companies. Whether active or passive, China has already intervened in the war. So, how will the US-Russian war evolve?
At present, the war in Ukraine has been fought for two whole years, and it can be said that there are too many surprises.
The first is that the United States never imagined that Ukraine would be so unbearable. With the strong military assistance of more than 50 countries in the United States and Europe, the Ukrainian army's big ** ended in failure. Zelensky had to adjust his strategy to defend instead of attacking.
What I didn't expect was that after two years of war attrition and severe sanctions, Russia has not only not been weakened, but has become more and more courageous and has achieved economic development.
Of course, I never thought that more than 50 countries could not afford to pay for the first ammunition consumption of a war with one country.
The second is that Russia may not have thought of it. Originally, it was a war with strength and quick victory, but it was a protracted war.
Russia also did not expect that the United States and NATO would be so deeply involved in the war. The United States not only gathered more than 50 countries to provide military aid to Ukraine, but also directly provided battlefield information and command to the Ukrainian army, and indirectly sent troops to participate in the war in the name of advisers and mercenary countries.
I didn't expect that the ** of the Russian army would be so big, and the loss of the armored equipment of the main warships and fighters of the Russian army would be so much.
Judging from the current situation, it should be almost impossible to drive the Russian army out of Ukraine through the war. The battlefield in Ukraine is a bottomless pit, and no matter how much the United States and NATO add, it will not help.
Because of this, the United States can only hope that the long-term and continued increase in sanctions can drag Russia down, so it has recently introduced the supposedly devastating sanctions.
At present, what is beneficial to Russia is that the initiative on the battlefield has been firmly grasped, and this big defeat has seriously hit the morale of the Ukrainian army. If the large number of ** ammunition captured by the Russian army in the Avdeyevka fortress is true, it means that Ukraine does not lack equipment and ammunition at all, but the soldiers have lost the courage to fight.
Zelensky's purpose of pretending to be pitiful everywhere is to try his best to drag NATO countries into the battlefield. And the United States, NATO countries, which have recently stagnated the supply of ** ammunition, are apparently aware of this.
Although the supply of ** ammunition has been stopped, the sanctions against Russia have been strengthened, which can at least make Ukrainians aware of their hostility towards Russia, and can also create some victorious illusions for Ukrainians that Russia will collapseSo that the will to war will not be quickly lost and surrendered.
It is in this context that we areThe United States and Europe have issued sanctions to Chinese companies at the same time, which is tantamount to drawing China into the whirlpool.
At the same time, China announced that it would launch shuttle diplomacy to promote peace and end the war. China's Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs will visit Russia, Ukraine and important countries in Europe.
While the United States has launched devastating sanctions against Russia, it has also imposed sanctions on Chinese companies, ostensibly to prevent China and Russia from normalizing and forcing China to side with the United States, so as to increase the weakening effect on Russia. In fact, it may be intended to drag China into the war in Ukraine.
After the United States announced sanctions against Chinese companies, the European Union also sanctioned Chinese companies at the same time as sanctions against Russia, which is the scene that the United States wants most.
On the surface, this is an expression of dissatisfaction with China, and the second is the intention to prevent Sino-Russian cooperation, and even to force China to side with the United States and NATO, so that it is conducive to the United States to strategically weaken Russia.
Therefore, the severe sanctions against Russia launched by the United States at this time are actually not completely aimed at Russia, but indirectly point the finger at China.
Two years have passed since the war was fought, and China's position has not changed. In the latest statement of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, China is not the creator of the Ukraine crisis, nor is it a party to it. But we didn't watch the fire from the other side, let alone take the opportunity to make a profit. The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations should be observed, the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously, and all efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis should be supported.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi's words are not many, but the meaning that can be contained in them is also in them.
First of all, the United States and NATO are the creators of the crisis。Although Russia should abide by the UN Charter and Ukraine's sovereignty should be respected, the special military operation will have a certain legitimacy and necessity under the circumstance that Ukraine actively cooperates with NATO's eastward expansion and seriously threatens the security of its countryIf you change it, China will also fight.
Secondly, it is precisely because Russia has a certain degree of legitimacy that the key to the truce is that the United States has clearly guaranteed to stop the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO, and Ukraine must also make a guarantee not to join NATO. Otherwise, under the circumstance of a serious threat to Russia's security, it is impossible for Russia to stop the war, or that Russia can only use war means to maintain a legitimate cooperative relationship, which is one of the important reasons why China and Russia maintain legitimate cooperative relations, or one of the important reasons why Sino-Russian relations will not be affected.
Therefore, China is not neutral and not without a position. Of course, if you are wrong, you must oppose it, and if you have it, you can naturally forgive it.
Third, the strengthening of Sino-Russian cooperation is not because China is taking the opportunity to make profits, nor is it because it is giving Russia "lethal support".
It is precisely because Russia has been consumed by the war and the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe in violation of the UN Charter and WTO rules that Russia has no choice, and China has naturally become Russia's best partner.
Mutually beneficial cooperation or win-win cooperation is a consistent principle of China, and under the circumstance that China and Russia are extremely complementary, strengthening cooperation is the only choice, and China will not lose its own interests and abandon normal cooperation because of the interests of the United States. It's a reasonable choice.
Fourth, China is not a party, but it is not a complete bystander. The war was the biggest security crisis in post-war Europe, and the most dangerous or easily detonating war since World War II.
If China wants to be a stabilizing force in the turbulent situation, it cannot but do something, and it is precisely for this reason that China will launch the second round of shuttle diplomacy in the Ukraine crisis, and it is China's purpose to promote peace talks. The above four points are a clear indication of China's position.
Although the United States can ignore China's shuttle diplomacy, China's stated position and principle, China's current position in this war, will force relevant European countries to consider the pros and cons, at least it will disrupt the thinking of the United States and NATO and increase the differences within NATO.
This is completely inconsistent with the interests of the United States, and it will naturally increase the hostility of the United States towards China, because the purpose of the United States is to weaken Russia and strengthen its control over Europe. At present, these two goals have not been achieved, but they are constrained by strategy.
It is important to be constrained not only by the war in Ukraine, but also by the chaos of the war in the Middle East. At the most critical juncture of great power competition, so many extraneous branches are naturally quite unfavorable to the United States.
Originally, the United States wanted to draw the EU and NATO into confrontation with China or suppress China, but the EU was unwilling. If we want to pull the EU into the water and confront China, we must create contradictions between China and Europe.
Obviously, Sino-Russian cooperation is not in Europe's interests. Sanctions against Chinese companies will inevitably affect China-EU relations. If Sino-Russian cooperation does not stop, sanctions against China-related enterprises will continue to increase, and Sino-European contradictions will certainly increase. The closer the EU cooperates with the United States. Gradually, a US-European alliance will be formed against China.
This is consistent with the de-risking strategy promoted by the United States. De-risking will gradually evolve into de-Chinaization, and eventually decoupling. And once a decoupling situation is formed, it will naturally be a camp confrontation.
If China fights alone, the United States does not dare and cannot suppress China. As Commander Bai said: With the support of its allies, the United States is stronger. In turn, without the support of its allies, the United States will not dare to confront China.
In fact, the war in Ukraine has been fought like this, and China may not want to intervene and has to intervene.
There are only three ways to go on this war. First, Ukraine can't hold on anymore and can only surrender and admit defeat. Second, the United States and NATO continue to be deeply involved in triggering a war spillover or a major war between Russia and NATO. Third, Russia cannot support it.
However, there are two situations in which Russia cannot support it. The first is to withdraw from Ukraine and end the special military operation, which is not very likely, and the second is to decisively use nuclear weapons to end the war when it realizes that it cannot be supported or will fail (mainly the economic and domestic situation). It is believed that as long as Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the United States and NATO will immediately sue for peace.
Ukraine admits defeat, or once the war ends, the world will face two scenarios。The first is the reconstruction of Ukraine, and the second is the reconstruction of the European security order, that is, the issue of relations between the United States and Europe and the United States.
In the reconstruction of Ukraine after the defeat of the war, China must intervene, and of course China will advocate under the framework of the United Nations. It cannot be dominated by the United States, nor can it be dominated by Russia.
I am afraid that China will have to come forward to rebuild Russia's relations with the United States and Europe, because Russia may not be able to support it alone. If China does not come forward to support Russia, the world will still not be peaceful. Putin's latest expression is that a "new architecture for Eurasian security" must be built, and China has clearly been included.
A spillover of a war or a detonation of a major war, which carries the risk of nuclear war, has implications for the whole world. At this time, China must actively intervene to mediate the peace process or prevent the war from worsening.
The war has been fought to the present level, and it is difficult to determine how the outcome or direction will go, but one thing is certain, that is, it will continue to be fought for a long time.
It is difficult for Ukraine to accept defeat, which means that it must cede land and seek peace, and Europe cannot accept defeat, which means that it has lost its security guarantees, and the United States does not accept defeat. A strong China is enough for the United States, and if a strong Russia appears, the hegemony of the United States will be even more unstable.
Although China is not a party to the matter, there are situations that China is unwilling to face, and that is that Russia has been dragged down. Once Russia is dragged down, the balance of power in the world will be seriously imbalanced, and dragging Russia down and then concentrating on suppressing China is the original intention of the United States in the arch war.
Therefore, although China does not approve of Russia's military action against Ukraine, it will never accept Russia's collapse. This is one of the important reasons why the Sino-US cooperative relationship has been constantly upgraded.
The problem now is that the longer the war is fought, the more Russia needs China as a partner. With the deepening of Sino-Russian cooperation and the growth of the largest amount, the United States and Europe will become more and more dissatisfied with China. Tensions will continue to intensify, and the United States will intensify its efforts to suppress China.
And if we proceed from the perspective of pure strategic competition, using Russia to contain the United States is the most effective strategy. Even if China has no intention, as Sino-Russian cooperation deepens and the US-Russia war continues, China's hostility with the United States and NATO will become stronger.