In 2023, despite the generally poor performance of China's *** private equity**, products that seized the opportunity of beta (return on portfolio relative to market volatility)** in the sector segment still performed well. At the same time, in the past year, under the overseas ** boom, Chinese mainland private equity has also increased its overseas layout. The strong performance of overseas ** contributed to the rich income.
In the U.S. market, the AI boom led by NVIDIA and the concept of ** drugs have lifted the ** index in one fell swoop, attracting an influx of global funds. In addition, the reporter learned that Japan's ** has risen by more than 40% in the past year, which has also attracted the attention of domestic institutions, but the current lack of research coverage is the biggest constraint.
China's private equity** accelerates its global layout.
In 2023, in the fundamental strategy, the net value falls below 05 yuan private placement** abounds, but there are still some** bucking the trend to outperform.
According to the data of CITIC**, the annual income of Greenwoods Innovation Growth**5 and Jinglin Harvest No. 7 Exclusive No. 1 was 2689% and 2368%, the two have a long-term layout in overseas markets, with U.S. stocks accounting for a relatively large proportion and investing in the information technology sector; Ruiquan Growth No. 2 Phase 1 Annual Earnings 1357%, which mainly invests in U.S. stocks and Hong Kong ** markets, significantly increased its position in the U.S. stock technology sector in the first half of the year, and successively took profits in the second half of the year, returning to Hong Kong stocks in energy, finance, and telecommunications services.
Over the past year, the S&P 500 is up about 27%, the Nasdaq 100 is up about 49%, and the Nikkei 225 is up more than 41%.
A number of private equity ** interviewed by Yicai have said that they have been in the layout of the Nasdaq 100 index and the S&P 500 index for a long time, but they have increased the proportion in the past year, especially for the Nasdaq. However, institutions generally say that the research coverage of Japan** is very limited, which also hinders the pace of institutional allocation, especially the difficulty of sinking beyond **.
Last year, the share of U.S. stocks in ** reached about 20%, and now it has decreased slightly due to the large increase. Perhaps the cost performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will also improve this year. The person in charge of a 10 billion private market told reporters.
In addition to overseas deployment**, institutions that have seized the opportunities of the A-share sub-sector have also made considerable gains. The data shows that in 2023, the A-share industry will be significantly differentiated, and Fusheng Positive Energy No. 5 Phase A will be the whole year52%, which focused on upstream resources in the first half of the year, allocated photovoltaics, new energy and AI in the middle of the year, and adjusted back to the coal and oil and gas extraction industries at the end of the year; Yitong Select Phase 11 No. 1 was full of positions throughout the year and closed up 179%, mainly investing in food and beverage and home appliances in the A-share consumer sector, as well as energy, telecommunications and insurance in Hong Kong stocks.
In addition, some quantitative strategies also outperformed. Compared with the subjective long strategy, the quantitative stock selection strategy in 2023 benefits from the diversification and flexibility of holdings, and the returns are higher, with Jiukun Quantitative Preferred No. 10 and Jiukun Long and Short Allocation No. 3 closing up 1304% and 751%, Mingtun Xinyi ** Select No. 1 annual income of 938%。Small-cap** is good for quantification, and small-cap** boosted the CSI 1000 Index to perform strongly during the year, and online products all recorded double-digit excess, making up for beta losses and achieving absolute positive returns. Despite the micro-cap experience in early 2024**, most quantified net worth has since been substantial**.
Nvidia and ** miracle drugs attract global funds.
Over the past year, U.S. equities have risen almost exclusively by two hot themes. One is the artificial intelligence theme dominated by Nvidia (an increase of more than 244% in a year), and the two related ** of AMD and supermicro computer have risen by nearly 150% and 825% respectively; Another theme is the concept of pharmaceutical stocks, Eli Lilly and Co (Eli Lilly and Co) rose by 145% in a year, and Novo Nordisk A S (Novo Nordisk A S) rose by about 71% in a year.
Goldman Sachs Research raised its target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2024 from 5,100 to 5,200, an increase of 4% from the index level on February 16. This reflects the agency's expectations for stronger economic growth in the United States and profits in the IT sector. The IT industry is home to the Big Five**, which account for about one-third of the S&P 500's market capitalization. It is estimated that the Big Five improved their margins by 582bp (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2023, resulting in a 58% earnings increase. In contrast, the remaining 493 S&P 500s** saw their margins fall by 56bp and earnings fell by 2% (mainly dragged down by energy stocks).
Nvidia's stock price rose another 4% on Friday (March 1), breaking through the $822 mark, and Wall Street now believes that $1,000 is not out of the question. According to the financial report, Nvidia's sales in the fourth quarter of last year reached $22.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 265%, of which AI-related data center revenue increased by 409% to $18.4 billion, and net profit reached 12.2$900 million, up 769% year-over-year. Goldman Sachs has raised its price target to $875.
Although Nvidia's data center revenue grew more than 3x year-over-year in fiscal 2024, Goldman Sachs expects it to grow more than 2x again in fiscal 2025. "We expect large cloud service providers and consumer internet companies to continue to grow in Gen AI infrastructure spending, while enterprise customers across industry verticals and a growing number of sovereign states will increase their AI development and adoption. In the short term, we see a slew of new product launches, including the H200 (2x better inferred performance than H100), Spectrum-X (Ethernet-based AI networking solution), and B100 (next-generation data center GPU platform), as well as improvements, all reinforcing the already strong demand backdrop. Goldman Sachs said.
However, there are also some institutions that have deployed Nvidia that are cautiously optimistic. Du Wanxinyi, a U.S. stock researcher at 10 billion private equity Yude Investment, told the first financial reporter that in the medium and long term, Nvidia's data center GPU business is facing two challenges: on the one hand, the competition pattern of the general GPU itself is deteriorating, AMD and Intel are entering the market, although in the long run, Nvidia is still the absolute leader with a market share of 70% or more than 80%, but compared with the current market share of 90%, it is still a deterioration of the pattern, and it may not be able to maintain such a high ** and profit margin; On the other hand, each CSP (cloud service platform, such as Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, etc.) has a huge incentive and ability to develop its own dedicated AI acceleration chips, and while it will still be difficult to provide general-purpose computing services to the outside world in the foreseeable future, it is still happening to replace a share of existing Nvidia chips for internal use. In her opinion, Nvidia's reasonable trading range is at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 to 40 times, and the upper limit of market capitalization can be seen at about $2 trillion (which has been broken through recently), and a better intervention position is at 1Around $5 trillion.
In this earnings season, in addition to the dazzling technology giants, ** drug concept stocks should not be underestimated. Eli Lilly's market capitalization exceeded $700 billion, becoming the world's most valuable pharmaceutical company, about equal to 2 Johnson & Johnson and 5 Pfizer, and surpassed Tesla among the Big Seven in one fell swoop to become the eighth largest listed company in the United States.
This veteran pharmaceutical company has once again gained the attention of the capital market in recent years, mainly due to the popularity of two "miracle drugs" - Mounjaro and Zepbound. Both are GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs and both contain the active ingredient tirzepatide. GLP-1 is an incretin that promotes insulin secretion in a glucose concentration-dependent manner, inhibits glucagon secretion and lowers blood sugar, while also delaying gastric emptying. It is precisely because of the incidental effect of "delaying gastric emptying" that semaglutide drugs have the effect of "**" in addition to fulfilling the task of "lowering blood sugar". In 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved it for chronic weight management. Subsequently, Musk's drug experience of "losing 18 pounds in a month" made it quickly "out of the circle" as the first miracle drug.
Jerry Chen, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, told reporters that at present, only Novo Nordisk's Wegovy is the only one that GLP-1 really has the best indication for, and the others are "off-label uses" (off label uses) hypoglycemic drugs. GLP-1 accounts for nearly 60% of Novo Nordisk's revenue, accounting for the absolute majority. The growth rate expected by brokerages in 2024 is low, mainly because it has a capacity bottleneck, but the agency mentioned that with the signing of the third CMO soon, this bottleneck is not very hard; In contrast, Eli Lilly's products and pipeline are more complex, with drugs accounting for less than 40% of its revenue. Because Eli Lilly's ** drug tirpatide uses solid-phase synthesis method, it is easier to increase production capacity, so the market is expected to have a higher growth rate in 2024.
In terms of stock price outlook, Tipranks statistics show that a total of 19 Wall Street analysts have rated Eli Lilly in the past three months, of which 37 are "**2" holdings. The average ** share price over the next 12 months is 770$50, and the highest ** price reached $853. As of Feb. 29, Eli Lilly's stock price had crossed the $780 mark.
According to Jerry Chen, Eli Lilly's rolling P/E ratio of 133 times and forward P/E of 60 times mean that analysts are optimistic that its earnings level will increase significantly. It is worth noting that the forward P/E ratio of 60 times is about 4 times that of other pharmaceutical companies in the 100 billion dollar class, which is somewhat similar to Tesla, whose forward P/E ratio of 57 times is much higher than that of traditional car companies. From this perspective, the market's expectations and valuations for Eli Lilly are closer to those of high-growth technology companies than traditional pharmaceutical companies.