Future industry to the future! Hydrogen energy, how far is it from commercialization?

Mondo Technology Updated on 2024-03-04

Exclusive article by China's well-off network.

Text丨"Well-off", reporter of China's well-off network, Yuan Shuai.

Open up the hydrogen energy application chain, with the goal of carbon neutrality, plan China's new energy system from a holistic perspective, and make corresponding investments in regions and industries suitable for hydrogen energy.

Photo courtesy of the interviewee.

The hydrogen energy industry is the key development direction of the future industry. Since 2023, driven by both policies and markets, the application field of hydrogen energy has been continuously expanded and innovated, and large-scale green hydrogen projects led by Sinopec and other companies have landed, and green hydrogen is gradually replacing traditional gray hydrogen, providing strong support for the decarbonization transformation of steel, chemical and other industries. Fuel cell vehicles have entered a period of volume acceleration, and companies such as Yutong Bus have ushered in related business growth. At present, China's hydrogen energy is ushering in a development boom, although the development of related industries is later than that of Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, but the development speed is rapid, and it has gradually caught up with Western countries in terms of industrial chain layout. As an "electric energy substitution", the application scope of hydrogen energy can cover transportation, industrial production, energy transmission, grid energy storage and deployment, etc., so that the hydrogen energy industry is expected to become a pillar industry of energy transformation.

Favorable policies continue to be strengthened.

At the beginning of 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Opinions on Supporting Guangzhou Nansha to Relax Market Access and Strengthen the Reform of the Regulatory System", proposing to create a green and low-carbon demonstration zone for the integration of Guangdong and Hong Kong in Nansha, Guangzhou, and promote the use of clean energy such as hydrogen energy. Previously, the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration pointed out that the hydrogen energy industry is a strategic emerging industry and a key development direction for future industries. Guided by self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, China will strengthen the construction of the innovation system of the hydrogen energy industry, accelerate the breakthrough of the bottleneck of hydrogen energy core technology and key materials, accelerate the upgrading and growth of the industry, and realize the virtuous cycle and innovative development of the industrial chain. We will practice innovation-driven, promote breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology and equipment, accelerate the cultivation of new products, new formats and new models, build a green and low-carbon industrial system, create new growth points for industrial transformation and upgrading, and inject new momentum into high-quality economic development. The "14th Five-Year Plan" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan for the first time included "ammonia" as an important hydrogen storage carrier in the key research direction, and clearly proposed to carry out the demonstration of "ammonia hydrogen energy storage".

The hydrogen energy industry policy has been "bottom-up" from the national level, and local governments have also made efforts. According to the "Three-Year Action Plan for the High-quality Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Anhui Province" issued by the Anhui Provincial Development and Reform Commission, by 2025, Anhui Province will initially realize the commercialization and application of hydrogen energy and build an important domestic hydrogen energy industry development highland. The "Implementation Rules for Policies and Measures to Optimize the Energy Structure of Chengdu and Promote Urban Green and Low-Carbon Development (Trial)" proposes to provide electricity fee support for the two-level linkage of green electricity hydrogen production projects in urban areas, and give a subsidy of up to 15 million yuan for the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations.

As an important special vehicle production base in the country, the Suizhou Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Party Committee in accordance with the overall idea of "playing a good first move, seizing the commanding heights, building an innovation park, and cultivating a large industry", clearly states that the development of the hydrogen energy industry should rely on the new energy intelligent special automobile and parts industry cluster, lead by new energy commercial vehicles, improve the energy level of the hydrogen commercial vehicle industry, and accelerate the industrialization of hydrogen commercial vehicles by applying for the national fuel cell vehicle promotion and application demonstration city agglomeration.

Yang Ming, deputy director of the ** Department of the Suizhou Municipal Party Committee and secretary of the Party Group of the Municipal Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that Suizhou is committed to cultivating strong chain enterprises, building hydrogen energy industrial parks, accelerating the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and building a closed loop of scenarios, and has planned and laid out a hydrogen energy industrial park covering an area of 160 acres to provide R&D and production bases for the development of the hydrogen energy industry. At the same time, Suizhou will dig deep into the resource endowment of new energy hydrogen production and lay out the green hydrogen production industry chain. "In the upstream hydrogen production link, at present, China's hydrogen mainly comes from gray hydrogen, and in the future, the use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power generation to produce hydrogen (green hydrogen) by electrolysis of water will become a development trend. Suizhou is a major city of wind and photovoltaic resources in Hubei, and as of October 2023, Suizhou's new energy grid-connected installed capacity is 322810,000 kilowatts, accounting for 10 of Hubei's new energy installed capacity42%。In the future, we will make full use of the advantages of wind and photovoltaic resources to promote the implementation of hydrogen production projects by the National Energy Group and build a green hydrogen industry highland in central China. ”

In addition, Suizhou leverages the coupling conditions of hydrogen storage and transportation equipment production to lay out the hydrogen energy equipment industry chain. Suizhou has a number of enterprises with pressure vessel production capacity, the city's hazardous chemicals tank car production enterprises more than 20, with an annual output of more than 10,000 hazardous chemicals tank trucks, accounting for more than 60% of the country, related parts and components of the local matching rate is high, with mass production of hydrogen storage tank reserve capacity, hydrogen storage bottle research and development is breaking through. Suizhou will plan and build a hydrogen energy industrial park from a high starting point, focusing on photovoltaic green hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen commercial vehicles and other projects, "beads into a chain" through the complete closed loop of hydrogen energy equipment, and build a whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy "production, storage, transportation, processing and use".

Hydrogen vehicles are on the battlefield. In the hydrogen energy landing and commercialization model, hydrogen energy vehicles have become one of the more mature models. At the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, the demonstration superimposed fuel cell vehicle demonstration city agglomeration project has made hydrogen energy the focus of the fuel cell industry. Among them, as a key hydrogen energy high-tech enterprise introduced in Daxing District, Beijing, InBev New Energy directly cooperated with the vehicle operation platform and launched a batch of 30 fuel cell buses in Beijing to undertake some of Beijing's daily epidemic prevention tasks and commuting support for the Olympic and Paralympic Games.

As the "national team", has invested 200 hydrogen buses for the Winter Olympics. In order to speed up the development of hydrogen energy vehicles, Chai Rongmao, the chief technology officer of hydrogen energy technology development of the State Power Investment Group, in order to speed up the development of hydrogen energy vehicles, set up an engine development team at the same time as the development of battery proton exchange membrane and carbon paper, and began to advance in the field of cross-border machinery. Chai Rongmao told the reporter of "Xiaokang" magazine and China's Xiaokang Network: "The Winter Olympics has created several firsts in history: the first time that more than 1,000 fuel cell vehicles have been operated in a centralized manner, the first time that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been used on a large scale in a large-scale international competition as the main capacity, the first time that domestic independent technology and international first-class brands have competed on the same track, and the first time that new energy vehicles have been served in the field in the cold winter for several months (including warm-up races). ”

Hubei Xinchufeng Automobile Co., Ltd. has stepped into the forefront of industry transformation from the desperate situation of bankruptcy to the forefront of industry transformation by virtue of hydrogen energy transformation, and released the world's first forward research and development of 1,000 kilometers of gaseous hydrogen energy heavy truck in November last year. In response to the development needs of fuel cell commercial vehicles, Xinchufeng has newly added facilities and equipment such as hydrogen stations, hydrogen fuel engine test benches, and welding robots, and has the ability to develop, produce and verify hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles.

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 68870,000 units, and the annual sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was 3,367 units, accounting for about 0049%。From January to November 2023, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 83040,000 units, and the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was 3,996 units, accounting for about 0048%。One of the important reasons for this situation is that the technical maturity of hydrogen fuel cells is not as good as that of lithium batteries, and the cost of hydrogen fuel cells is currently higher than that of lithium batteries.

Compared with other new energy batteries such as lithium batteries and nickel-metal hydride batteries, hydrogen fuel cells have the advantages of high energy density, zero pollution and zero emissions, fast replenishment speed, long endurance and light vehicle weight. Hydrogen is abundant and can be exploited from seawater. The calorific value of hydrogen is about three times that of oil, but the product is only water, which can decompose hydrogen again. "Hydrogen fuel cells do not pollute the environment at the end of their service life. Lithium-ion batteries contain a lot of heavy metals, and if they are not properly used, they will cause pollution to the environment. Direct hydrogen refueling takes about 5 minutes, and the battery life is generally more than 500 kilometers, and the lithium battery has a long charging time and a short battery life. In a low-temperature environment, the range of lithium batteries is greatly reduced, while hydrogen fuel cells are not affected. Guangzhou Hypert Technology *** CMO Duan Qingquan said.

As a result, coupled with the progress of technology and the promotion of subsidies and other policies for the "eight major parts" of fuel cells (stacks, membrane electrodes, bipolar plates, proton exchange membranes, catalysts, carbon paper, air compressors, and hydrogen circulation systems), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will play a greater role in the field of transportation. Chai Maorong suggested that China should speed up the liberalization of the passenger car market, and improve safety and reliability through large-scale cost reduction and technology iteration, which is a very important point. "Only by developing passenger cars can the volume go up and the cost come down. Fuel cell vehicles, passenger cars are the road that cannot be bypassed, because it has the electronicization of electric vehicles and the inverter of fuel vehicles, which is equal to the front is an electric vehicle, and the back is a fuel vehicle, which is such a set of devices, so it has the advantages of high safety, low cost and fast refueling speed of fuel vehicles, and the reliability and long life of electric vehicles, high environmental adaptability, from minus 40 to minus 60, the whole working range is very wide, and acceleration, start is very fast, this is the biggest feature. At the same time, he pointed out that China's transportation prospects will be heavy trucks, buses as a breakthrough, the establishment of "diesel" to "hydrogen" industrial demonstration, the layout of hydrogen refueling stations, expand the use of hydrogen energy, and gradually expand to the field of passenger cars, and in the development of new uses in ships.

Duan Qingquan analyzed that under the premise of maximizing the whole life cycle TVO, the scenario principle of "suitable electricity is electricity, suitable hydrogen is hydrogen" will be adhered to for a long time in the future, and fuel cells and power battery routes will coexist in the field of commercial vehicles, but the highway logistics with the largest output value, especially the high-speed, heavy-duty and long-distance highway trunk logistics is the absolute advantage of hydrogen fuel cell application scenarios. "Before 2026, it will be mainly driven by policy, driven by policy and market from 2027 to 2030, and fully market-driven after 2030. It is conservatively estimated that in 2030, the annual sales of hydrogen vehicles will exceed 80,000 units, and the number of ownership will exceed 400,000 units; It is optimistically estimated that in 2030, the annual sales volume will exceed 400,000 units, and the number of ownership units will exceed 1 million units. ”

The future of hydrogen is promising.

Although hydrogen energy is still far from large-scale industrialization, the development of its industry, especially in system applications, shows an exciting trend. In the industrial application of small transportation equipment, Guangdong Lanxuan Hydrogen Energy Technology has recently achieved a major breakthrough and successfully developed the world's first 400W water-cooled hydrogen two-wheeled vehicle. It is reported that the single endurance of the car exceeded 120 km, and the operating life of the nuclear system exceeded 150,000 hours, the relevant performance indicators have reached the industry-leading level, which can achieve zero carbon emissions, and is safer and more environmentally friendly than lithium batteries, and more stable and durable than air-cooled hydrogen energy technology. The domestic leading technological achievements have entered the mass production preparation. At the same time, the Lanxuan water-cooled hydrogen tricycle that can be used in express delivery and other industries has also been successfully developed. The technical characteristics and industrialization prospects of this series of products have been highly praised by Chai Mao Rongxian.

According to the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", by 2025, China will form a relatively complete institutional and policy environment for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, significantly improve the industrial innovation ability, basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, and initially establish a relatively complete chain and industrial system. Remarkable results have been achieved in the demonstration and application of hydrogen energy, great progress has been made in clean energy hydrogen production and hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology, market competitiveness has been greatly improved, and a hydrogen energy system based on industrial by-product hydrogen and hydrogen production from renewable energy has been initially established. The number of fuel cell vehicles is about 50,000, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed. The amount of hydrogen produced from renewable energy will reach 100,000 200,000 tons per year, becoming an important part of the new hydrogen energy consumption, and achieving a carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1 million 2 million tons per year.

By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for the hydrogen energy industry, clean energy hydrogen production and the first system will be formed, the industrial layout will be reasonable and orderly, and the hydrogen production from renewable energy will be widely used, which will strongly support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking. By 2035, a hydrogen energy industry system will be formed, and a diversified hydrogen energy application ecosystem covering transportation, energy storage, industry and other fields will be built. The proportion of hydrogen produced from renewable energy in final energy consumption has increased significantly, which plays an important supporting role in the green transformation and development of energy.

How can these goals be achieved? Chai Maorong believes that the first step in China's hydrogen energy development is to open up the hydrogen application chain within 10 to 15 years to improve the economy of hydrogen energy utilization. The second step is to take carbon reduction as the goal, and invest in the research and development of green hydrogen production technologies such as hydrogen production from renewable electricity, pyrolysis hydrogen production, and photocatalytic hydrogen production in 10 to 15 years, so as to reduce the cost of these technical routes. The third step is to plan China's new energy system from a holistic perspective with the goal of carbon neutrality, and make corresponding investments in regions and industries suitable for hydrogen energy. "At present, China lags behind Japan and Germany in the popularity of hydrogen energy, and the future indicator of whether China's hydrogen energy is popular is to see whether hydrogen passenger cars have a large market, because hydrogen vehicles have a long range and the cost of hydrogen will be lower than oil. Chai Maorong**, around 2060, China's total energy consumption will increase by 20% to 30% compared with the current level, when in addition to electricity, hydrogen energy, thermal energy will also be the main energy source***

Duan Qingquan analyzed that the key to the commercialization of hydrogen energy is from the perspective of upstream hydrogen production, with the development of technology, the cost of green hydrogen is gradually reduced, and it is expected to break through the key link of hydrogen energy industrialization; From the perspective of midstream hydrogen storage and transportation, it is necessary to further promote industrialization and technological innovation to reduce costs; From the perspective of downstream hydrogen energy applications, the application in transportation, industry, power generation and other fields should be promoted.

Moderately Prosperous" • China Well-off Network Exclusive Article).

This article was published in the early February 2024 issue of Xiaokang.

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