Introduction: What does it mean that the wording of the mainland's work toward Taiwan in the new year has changed, and the word "peace" is missing? Experts in the Taiwan region commented that the mainland will make some adjustments to its work toward Taiwan, but at present its military preparations are insufficient, and it will not use force against Taiwan for the time being.A few days ago, in response to the vicious incident of two deaths caused by the capsizing of a mainland fishing boat, cross-strait consultations and negotiations have completely broken the deadlock. The families of the fishermen who died wiped their tears and left Kinmen, and before embarking on the boat to return to the mainland, Li Zhaohui, deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office in Quanzhou, Fujian, left four words for the Taiwan authorities: "bear the consequences."
The outcome of this round of consultations can be said to have been expected by us for a long time, and since the Tsai Ing-wen administration vetoed the people of the Kinmen Red Cross Society to be in charge of the negotiations, and sent pro-green "**" and "Coast Guard"**, it is doomed that this non-governmental incident will escalate to cross-strait political confrontation.
Such a result has added fuel to the fire on the mainland, which is already full of indignation. At the same time, the mainland officials have also made some slight changes to the wording of the work related to Taiwan in the new year's work report.
One of the most noteworthy is that in 2024, it will emphasize "adhering to the one-China principle and the 92 consensus, resolutely opposing foreign interference, and unswervingly advancing the great cause of the reunification of the motherland".
Compared with the mainland's official emphasis on "promoting the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland" in 2023, there will be less expression of "peaceful" reunification in 2024. Does such a change mean that the wind direction of *** will change greatly? Will the mainland's means of work toward Taiwan be dominated by military oppression?
In this regard, some experts on the island asserted that the mainland's military preparations for Taiwan have not yet been completed, and it will not use force to resolve the Taiwan issue in the short term.
Cai Zhengyuan, a former representative of the People's Republic of China on the island, claimed that the most important reason for judging that the mainland would not use force was the various international disputes over the Jinxia ship collision incident, which was, after all, a very small incident, and that the use of force would obviously make the international community think that the mainland was making a big fuss and did not conform to the "responsibility of a major country" proposed by the mainland.
Cai Zhengyuan also asserted that the mainland's use of force must be against the island of Taiwan, and it will not only target Kinmen and Matsu and other outer islands, but the preparations for the use of force against the island of Taiwan have obviously not yet been completed, and in particular, there have not yet been large-scale army exercises, nor have there been large-scale landing exercises; from a military point of view, the mainland's aircraft carrier construction has not yet matured, and the armed strength of the US military has not yet been perfected, and the use of force at this time is not in line with the cost.
Cai Zhengyuan concluded that the Jinxia ship collision incident should not cause a military conflict, and the "anti-China" route can still be mixed for a while.
In this regard, we would like to say that if the time comes for the mainland to use force against Taiwan, or if the Taiwan region is about to go out, then the PLA will not hesitate to do so, regardless of whether it is fully prepared or not.
According to the analysis, this change in the mainland has multiple meanings.
First, it is an indisputable fact that the wind direction has changed. On many official and important occasions on the mainland, the documents must be carefully considered word by word, and every word must be scrutinized repeatedly to convey information to the outside world. In particular, in the work report, it was customary to talk about peaceful development and peaceful reunification, but suddenly "peaceful development" is still there, and the "peace" of "peaceful reunification" is gone.
In the past, our concept was that "peace" and "reunification" were indispensable. Now we are soberly aware that "peace" and "reunification" may not necessarily be tied together, because whether or not reunification can be smooth or not is influenced by complicated factors, and it is not scientific and objective enough to restrict the use of peaceful means to achieve national reunification.
Second, in the past two years, we have often heard the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of Chinese mainland, the Ministry of National Defense and other departments emphasize that "** means war, and we will never be soft on ** forces." People of all walks of life on both sides of the strait also believe that the mainland is "promoting reunification by force" through military action against Taiwan.
Combined with the deletion of the word "peace" in our work with Taiwan, it is not difficult to understand that military means will gradually occupy an important position in the future. On the one hand, this is due to the growth of comprehensive national strength, especially military strength, which provides the greatest guarantee for the settlement of the Taiwan issue by military means; on the other hand, the "leading forces" on the island continue to collude with foreign forces, ignore the red line of the "one-China principle," distort and deny the "consensus of '92," and exaggerate the "two-state theory" in the international community.
Then there is the most important point, and we must emphasize that the deletion of the word "peace" does not mean that the mainland has given up the use of peaceful means to reunify the Taiwan region, because if this happens, it means that we have only one last option left for our work on Taiwan, but this obviously does not accord with reality, and there are actually several cards that we can play on the Taiwan issue.
"Promoting reunification by force" is one of them, and the adventurous move of "the leading forces to jump over the wall through military means is to deter those countries that dare to intervene militarily in the situation in the Taiwan Strait;
Promoting cross-strait integration and exchanges is also one of our means of "promoting reunification." In the second half of last year, Fujian Province began to explore a demonstration zone for cross-strait integrated development. According to the content of the relevant documents, Fujian will provide a series of targeted measures for Taiwan compatriots to come to Fujian, such as the children of Taiwan compatriots to study, participate in work, rent a house, settle down, and provide for the elderly.
Judging from the current cross-strait economic development situation, Fujian's integrated development demonstration zone will inevitably form a "siphon effect" on both sides of the strait. Taiwan's young people who seek more development opportunities and a bigger stage will be attracted by the mainland to build an "invisible bridge" between the two sides of the strait.
In addition, let's not forget that we have another killer trick: the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, or ECFA for short. The framework was adopted during the Kuomintang administration, and it brought tangible benefits to the two sides of the strait, especially the Taiwan region, but with the coming to power of the first authorities, these economic benefits were monopolized by the first party and became the nourishment of the "first forces."
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has disclosed data that the authorities have unilaterally restricted the import of a large number of mainland products, and the scope of the ban on the import of mainland products has shown an expanding trend in recent years, with a total of 2,509 mainland products banned from importing by the end of November 2023. This has already constituted a ** barrier.
This killer move is one of our biggest hole cards, and it's also the most effective. The mainland's suspension of the preferential import of certain goods to Taiwan has already made the island complain for days, and if it is completely stopped, it will inevitably be bombed.
On the whole, military, economic, and non-governmental means of exchange are all one of the means for us to promote national reunification, and the deletion of the word "peace" from the description of the first is not the so-called "beating the drums of war", and completely using military means to solve the Taiwan issue.
On the contrary, this is a manifestation of the fact that we are dealing with *** more and more maturely, and there are more and more tools in our toolbox. "Sun Tzu's Art of War: Attacking Chapters" has a saying first: go to the army to attack and strategize, then attack the enemy, then attack the army, and attack the city. As the Taiwan issue is our internal affair, it may not be appropriate to describe it in this way, but the truth is pretty much the same.
Military means are forced to be used only when there is really no way to do so. War is a high-yield and high-risk behavior, which is only suitable for fighting against the odds, and is not suitable for use in the case of medium and long-term advantages.
If the Russians were not forced to the point of helplessness by NATO's eastward expansion, they would not be willing to establish a buffer zone in the eastern part of Ukraine by means of war to ensure Moscow's security.
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