I don't know if you have heard such a sentence: A-shares are actually the history of the game of economy and policy, but the final winner must be the policy, why? Because one of the significant characteristics of the policy is that it will continue to increase if the goal is not achieved! And this is the main reason why everyone calls A-shares a policy market.
Since the Politburo meeting on July 28 clearly proposed to "activate the capital market and boost investor confidence", the stamp duty has been halved, the pace of IPOs has been tightened, the best behavior has been regulated, and various favorable policies have been dazzling. In the near future, the positive has increased again, and they are all measures to provide liquidity for the market from the capital side, so let's take a look at them separately.
The real national team ** Huijin shot
First of all, it should be made clear that Huijin Company is a wholly state-owned company funded by the state, holding shares in six commercial banks, four companies, two insurance companies and four other financial institutions. On the evening of October 11, ** Huijin Company announced that it would directly increase its holdings of A-shares in the four major banks in the secondary market, which is equivalent to saying that the national team personally went out to buy **.
First, it can enhance market confidence and curb the spread of panic, and secondly, it can support the bottom by increasing the shares of the four major banks and stabilize investor confidence. More importantly, the move sent a clear signal to the market to rescue the market.
Trillion additional issuance of treasury bonds
On October 24, the Ministry of Finance said that it would issue an additional trillion special treasury bonds, and the additional trillion treasury bonds issued this time are all directly transferred to the local government, which is equivalent to transferring the local debt to the first finance, and the repayment of principal and interest is undertaken, which can well alleviate the pressure on local finance, and is also conducive to reducing the market's worries about the thunderstorm and tight finances of real estate companies.
Historically, special treasury bonds have been issued a total of 4 times, ** is the corresponding trend after the issuance of special treasury bonds, this is the fifth time:
The first time was in 1998, 270 billion, when the background was the Asian financial crisis;
The second time was in 2007, 155 trillion, which at that time was mainly the global financial crisis;
The third time is in 2017, 600 billion, which is a directional renewal to commercial banks in China.
The fourth time was in 2020, 1 trillion, when the background was to fight the epidemic, and at the same time, release liquidity;
A new round of repurchase + self-purchase tide
3 trillion E Fund also shot.
Repurchase refers to the purchase of shares issued by listed companies in the market with real money**, which generally occurs when the stock price is at the bottom or when they are optimistic about the future of their stock price.
Self-purchase refers to the company's own money to buy the shares issued by its own company, which is also a typical favorable policy.
Recently, the repurchase enthusiasm of A-share listed companies has continued to increase, setting off a new round of repurchases; In terms of amount, the maximum amount of repurchase by many companies exceeded 100 million yuan, which shows that they are optimistic about the company's stock price.
In addition, the company is not far behind, paying out of pocket to buy its own shares. For example, E Fund**, as a public offering brother with assets under management of 3 trillion yuan, recently announced the purchase of its CSI 300 ETF for 200 million yuan, which is full of sincerity. In fact, since **Huijin's shot, public offerings** have made their own purchases, and the cumulative amount has exceeded 2.1 billion.
Historically, the wave of self-purchase + repurchase generally occurs in the bottom area of history, and such a dense shot, even if it is not the bottom, is likely to mean that the worst time has passed, otherwise who will joke with their real gold**!
Social Security ** Symposium
From October 26th to 27th, the social security symposium was held, and the main responsible persons of 24 investment managers of social security and pension attended the meeting. It is believed that the current valuation of China's equity assets has been at the bottom of history, and A-shares have entered a window period of long-term allocation of value to strive for excess returns.
As a special national team, social security and pension are still very bold in their wording, and they are even used to strive for excess returns, which shows that they are very optimistic about the market outlook, and there should be an increase in holdings soon. The return on investment of social security last year was -507%, but against the trend, an additional ** investment of 130 billion. There is a high probability that it will still lose money so far this year, it has never lost money for two consecutive years in its history, and the index still has a chance in the last 2 months! If social security increases the entry into the market, the style of A-shares may have to change.
This also shows once again that the policy is indeed not up to the goal and will never stop, if the previous policy is an empty slogan, then this time we have to pay attention to it, because these four benefits are all from the capital side, all are for the injection of liquidity, and more importantly, the real gold is bought down. So the more the bottom is the more **, the more rational the analysis, everyone always remember a sentence: if for the so-called security, your thinking is the same as most investors, then the final result will be the same as them; But the objective fact is that there are always a few people who make money in the a** field--- it is recommended to savor it.
Do you think A-shares can bottom out this time? Tell me why!